The Houston Astros are one of the most disappointing teams in baseball so far in 2016. At 25-29, they look nothing like the playoff team almost everyone had pegged them to be. The trade they made with the Brewers last season has been a disaster as Carlos Gomez looks lost at the plate and Mike Fiers has gotten shelled. The Astros find themselves in the middle of the pack after being a top-four offense in 2015, and their starting pitching has also been a cause for concern. By no means is the rotation bad (15th in WAR), but with Dallas Keuchel pitching more like Kyle Kendrick than a Cy Young winner and Lance McCullers walking too many hitters, the starting staff just hasn’t been overly effective.
On Opening Day, FanGraphs gave them a 69.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 9.3% chance of winning the World Series. As of June 1, their chances are now down to 35.2% and 3.5%, respectively. But I’m still riding the Astros’ World Series bandwagon. The Astros are just 6.5 games back in the American League West. There’s plenty of time to make a run and get back on top. I still believe, and here’s why.
MLB’s best bullpen
As we’ve learned from the Kansas City Royals the past two seasons, having a shutdown bullpen is essential to success, and according to FanGraphs’ WAR stat, Houston has the most valuable bullpen this year with 3.2 WAR. Houston has issues, but the bullpen is far from one of them, especially late in games. Will Harris is remarkably at 1.0 WAR already, and with another good outing closer Luke Gregerson will surpass that mark as well. The Astros rank fourth in strikeout rate — with three relievers posting a K/9 of 10 or more — and have issued only 43 walks.
The rotation isn’t as bad you think
The Astros rank 24th in ERA (4.81), but 17th in FIP (4.25). It’s not a huge difference, but nonetheless, it shows that the Houston’s starters are a bit better than how they’ve performed thus far. Luck has played a part of their misfortune. They’ve allowed an extremely high batting average on balls in play. The Astros’ .319 BABIP is higher than all but two teams in the league. That’s pretty alarming considering that’s over 20 points higher than the league average BABIP. I expect that to drop a little as the season goes on. There’s also just no way Keuchel can be this dreadful. Sure, he’s not pitching like an ace, but he’s better than a 5.58 ERA. His peripherals say so.
Houston’s starting rotation was dominant last year, and if they want to make a deep run in the playoffs, they’ll need better performances out of their top guys. Don’t count out that happening just yet.
They’ve won eight of their past nine games
After losing four in a row, the Astros have caught fire, winning eight of their past nine games and have started to gain ground in the AL West. Over the last 14 days, the Astros have posted the best FIP (3.05) and the second-best WAR (3.0), proving that their pitching is the key to their success.
Maybe Houston will continue being a streaky team this year, but as long as they can continue putting together impressive win streaks, they can deal with a few losses in a row.
Oh, and don’t forget. They still have three of the game’s top young talents in Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa.
