When the Astros blasted off in the AL West last year, ultimately winning the AL Wild Card game before falling to the Royals in five games in the ALDS, it surprised many who didn’t think they would be a contender until 2017. This didn’t keep the expectations of the Astros from exploding heading into 2016 as they became the safe pick for AL West champion after just one solid season.
It’s still extremely early in the season, but after losing four of six in their first two series against the Yankees and Brewers, things are already looking a little less positive. To start, however, we should already temper these feelings somewhat. Last year, the Astros went 2-4 or worse in a span of six games 13 times. Houston actually didn’t start the season off much differently than this year, losing two of three against Cleveland in their first series and doing the same against Oakland in their third to go 3-5 in their first eight games.
There was another short span of poor play early in the season worth noting as they were swept by the Rangers, split a four game series with the Angels, and then lost one with San Francisco. Overall, it was a 2-6 span that would have been considered much more seriously had it not come directly after a ten game winning streak and a span of 14 wins in 15 games. Unfortunately, this time, Houston didn’t have that solid win total in the bank already before they struggled a bit.
For some reason, despite having a retractable roof at home, Houston had to start the season on the road this year and didn’t play their first home game until Monday against Kansas City. Because of this, they had to deal with bad weather in New York, including a postponed opener, that may have effected their play some. Even with this, the Astros won on day one against the Yankees as 2015 AL Cy Young Dallas Keuchel pitched well (7 IP, 2 ER), which he did in his second start as well in a loss against Milwaukee.
Since nearly all the Astros’ problems this year have been in the rotation (rookie Tyler White and second year shortstop Carlos Correa already have three home runs apiece), we will stick with that aspect. Starting pitching was a problem for Houston in 2015 as well, although they disguised it by hitting a ton of home runs and trying out a bunch of different arms until something fit.
One who fit quickly was rookie Lance McCullers, who made 22 starts with a 3.22 ERA. He could easily have been the Astros’ number two starter this year until he had an issue with right shoulder soreness in mid-March and hadn’t gotten into a baseball game this year until yesterday. He made his debut Monday night in AA Corpus Christi, throwing three innings, striking out four, and allowing one run. Given that he missed all of Spring Training and the first week of the season, it will likely take McCullers a bit of time to come back and once he is back, he’s expected to be on an innings count this year. so his help for the year as a whole could be limited.
Without McCullers (or Scott Kazmir and Roberto Hernandez, who ate innings for the Astros last year), the Astros are stuck with Doug Fister and Scott Feldman at the back of the rotation. Both of those and Collin McHugh have made just starts for the Astros, but none had an easy time of it. McHugh, who was the best of the three in 2015 had the worst start, retiring just one batter while allowing two walks, three hits, and six runs (five earned) against New York in game two.
While a 135.00 ERA can look scary, McHugh has been a stable part of the Astros rotation for two years and will almost certainly be again this year. That was exemplified on Monday, when McHugh tossed seven shutout innings against the Royals. Every team has days like that 16-6 loss, they just don’t always have them the first week of the season. Because there is so little else to go on, that game stands out in all the Astros pitching numbers and if you take it away, they have scored four more runs than they have allowed this year.
Without just saying it’s early over and over again, there are a few things to take away from the Astros. First, the rotation is going to get better, but it may take a little while to get it going. As illustrious as names as Fister & Feldman are, they will be much better off with McCullers back and once McHugh is back pitching in reasonable conditions.
Another takeaway – it’s possible that the Astros have been slightly overrated. Bullpens are fickle year to year and what was an asset in 2015 is already looking a little questionable this year. Josh Fields and Ken Giles have already had issues while Tony Sipp, Pat Neshek, and Luke Gregorson (who were all incredible last year) are on the wrong side of 30. This is not to say they can’t repeat their success, only that it shouldn’t be taken for granted.
Offensively, there are a couple issues as well, although that will always be this team’s strength. There is no questioning Correa or Jose Altuve, but much of the lineup is built from all or nothing players. One who has to this point proven to be more nothing is George Springer, who is batting .207 with nine strikeouts in 29 at bats. Starting third baseman Luis Valbuena is another question mark, as his 2015 was completely unexpected. Even with his lofty numbers, advanced stats considered him a two win player and if he doesn’t repeat his out of nowhere power numbers he doesn’t provide the kind of value a play-off contender would expect at the hot corner.
The Astros lineup is still solid, however, and they should be able to withstand a lack of production from one or two bats. Their early season failures may have at least tempered some expectations, however, for those who were about to proclaim them AL West champions out of Spring Training.
