Baseball is the most superstitious of sports and with it, there is an overlying belief of some that once a team makes it to the promised land of the World Series, they are under greater pressure and scrutiny the following season that will make it more difficult for them to repeat their success early in the following season. When the Mets started off the year going 2-4 against the Phillies and Marlins, that certainly looked like it could be the case.
This down spell didn’t last long, however, as the Mets found their bats and won three straight series since against the Indians, Phillies, and Braves. Not that these are the most difficult of opponents, but they were series that the Mets should have won and they did. In addition, other than a three game set with San Francisco, ten of their next 13 games will come against the Reds, Padres, and Braves, giving them a chance to really boost that record.
On the other side, the Royals prove an interesting example as two-time defending American League champions. They have started hot this year (10-6) as they did last year (14-6 in first twenty), going the opposite way of the Mets by winning seven of their first eight games against the Twins, Astros and Athletics. The chart below shows the records in the first twenty games for each of the pennant winners from 2010 through this season for both the year they won the pennant and the following season.
| Year | Team | First 20 Year Of | First 20 Year After |
| 2015 | Royals | 14 – 6 | 12 – 6 |
| 2015 | Mets | 15 – 5 | 10 – 7 |
| 2014 | Giants | 11 – 9 | 8 – 12 |
| 2014 | Royals | 10 – 10 | 14 – 6 |
| 2013 | Red Sox | 13 – 7 | 9 – 11 |
| 2013 | Cardinals | 12 – 8 | 11 – 9 |
| 2012 | Giants | 10 – 10 | 13 – 7 |
| 2012 | Tigers | 10 – 10 | 10 – 10 |
| 2011 | Cardinals | 11 – 9 | 13 – 7 |
| 2011 | Rangers | 13 – 7 | 15 – 5 |
| 2010 | Giants | 12 – 8 | 10 – 10 |
| 2010 | Rangers | 9 – 11 | 13 – 7 |
On a quick overview, it’s easy to note that the year that each team has won the pennant, no team started worse than .500 except the 2010 Rangers. This is not to say a team couldn’t get off to a poor start and make up the ground as much as great teams rarely get off to a terrible start. The following season isn’t quite the same.
While there weren’t any teams who built up a huge hole the season after going the distance, the 2015 Giants and 2014 Red Sox each started off below .500 in what were ultimately seasons without a playoff appearance. Of the teams that went .500, the 2011 Giants missed the playoffs and the 2013 Tigers lost to Boston in the ALCS.
The fact is, if a team was good enough to reach the World Series one year, they will probably still be pretty decent the next. The 2013 to 2014 Red Sox are the biggest exception to this and they certainly had a few problems to deal with. For one, Will Middlebrooks and Jonny Gomes, who were lesser, but still significant players on the 2013 team, struggled greatly in 2014 to the point where Middlebrooks was traded to San Diego at the end of the year and Gomes was sent with Jon Lester to the A’s mid-season for Yoenis Cespedes. Those two, among others, contributed to the Red Sox early struggles, but the reason they didn’t make the Postseason had less to do with their first 20 games and more to due with the Dustin Pedroia injury, losing Jacoby Ellsbury to free agency, and 2013 trade deadline acquisition Jake Peavy not performing up to expectations.
Back to the present. If one of the two 2015 pennant winners was not expected to play well early on, it was the Royals. Many predicted them to fall back to the middle of the Central with the Twins, Indians, and Tigers taking more prominent roles. Instead, early on at least, the White Sox and Royals remain on top of the division. The fact that the Royals are still winning shouldn’t be such a surprise as their type of game isn’t a fluke and should continue to be successful.
First, they play great defense. Even when you don’t have a starting pitcher who can miss a bat, having an incredible defense can keep the other teams from scoring and already the Royals have saved five runs more than the average team, good for sixth in baseball and third in the American League. In addition, the Royals may not hit for a high average, but they do put the ball in play a lot and almost never strike out. This is a skill, not luck and returning essentially the same lineup from 2015 has lead to almost the same results as their 18.8% K-Rate is second best in the AL and fourth best in MLB.
The Mets also returned most of their roster, although their strategy follows the mantra of pitching, pitching, pitching. They strike out 9.55 batters per nine innings, so it isn’t as important that their defense can’t match Kansas City. They also have an unreasonable 0.35 HR/9, so their fielders have generally at least had a chance to make the play.
In baseball, talent will overcome pressure and expectations every time and both the rosters of the Mets and Royals are incredibly talented. While they do it different ways, it’s not surprising at all that both teams are near the top of the division and currently leading the Wild Card race for those who choose to look at such things early in the season. The first 20 games aren’t that important, but both teams have shown that they are still solid squads and should be competitive all season long.
