The Toronto Blue Jays are back in contention, sitting 11 games over .500 (51-40) after a so-so start to the season. Most of the accolades have been given to the teams powerful lineup, which is fair considering Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki have been incredible as the season progressed. Perhaps the most surprising reason Toronto has both survived and returned to an AL East powerhouse is the consistent starting rotation.
Entering 2016, Toronto’s rotation looked to be fine, but not spectacular. There were many questions marks. Would R.A. Dickey continue to lose effectiveness in the latter part of his career? Could Marco Estrada repeat an unexpected breakout year? What could J.A. Happ bring that would show he’s not the same pitcher in his second Blue Jays stint? Could the young guys be counted on?
Through 91 games, the rotation has silenced performance concerns. Toronto starters lead the American League with a 3.64 ERA, maintaining a much-needed consistency throughout the season. There have been few health issues as Toronto has used only six starters all season, with Drew Hutchison making two spot starts.
Marco Estrada has been even better than last year, continuing to use one of the league-best change ups to fool batters. While he doesn’t regularly break 90 MPH on the radar gun, Estrada has limited damage using his fastball and changeup effectively. He’s allowed just 5.5 H/9, the fewest in MLB, and has a tidy 0.987 WHIP. He’s posted a 5-3 record, a 2.93 ERA, and a 4.14 FIP. The 33-year-old right-hander was named an All-Star before hitting the DL. The Blue Jays took a risk re-signing him to a two-year deal worth $26 million, but Estrada has lived up to the contract and then some. Will the success last? Probably not at this rate. But, Estrada has established himself as the Blue Jays veteran ace.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – JUNE 24: Marco Estrada #25 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches during the first inning of a game against the Tampa Bay Rays on June 24, 2015 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
With Estrada hitting the DL, Aaron Sanchez was named into the All-Star Game in his place. Sanchez has enjoyed a breakout year in every sense. In 18 starts, he’s posted a 9-1 record, put up a team-high 14 quality starts and 118.1 innings, and has a 2.97 ERA. Most importantly, the right-hander has dropped his BB/9 from 4.29 in 2015 to 2.81. Sanchez’s control issues have teetered off. The 24-year-old has been flat-out awesome. Throwing plenty of fastballs and armed with a knee-buckling curveball, Sanchez is showing why he was such a highly rated prospect in the Blue Jays organization. Sanchez will transition to the bullpen later this season as he’s on a strict inning limit, but he’s shown he’s got ace-like ability. Toronto fans should be ecstatic with his development.
The rest of Toronto’s rotation has been good enough for the Blue Jays to compete. J.A. Happ has continued his Pittsburgh ascension, making good on the three-year, $36 million deal he signed this offseason. He’s exceeded expectations, tied for second in the AL with 12 wins while posting a sparkling 3.36 ERA. As funny as it is, he’s been better than the now-departed David Price. As is tradition, R.A. Dickey’s season started off rough, but the 41-year-old knuckleballer has hit his stride in the Summer, posting a 7-9 record with a 3.93 ERA all while eating plenty of innings. The staff’s expected ace, Marcus Stroman, has largely struggled with consistency. He’s 7-4 with a 4.89 ERA. Stroman hasn’t been able to go on a long stretch of good starts, but recent returns have been promising. Stroman will need to be better if Toronto wants to continue to contend.
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 20: Marcus Stroman #54 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches in the third inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 20, 2014 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
The Blue Jays could add a starter via trade to stabilize the rotation late in the season with Sanchez bowing out. But, the group has been good enough that if they stay as-is (and swap out Sanchez with Hutchison) they should be in excellent shape entering the playoffs. With one of the best rotations and offenses in the league, teams should start fearing the Toronto Blue Jays, if they don’t already.
