Heading into the 2016 season, many were down on the Kansas City Royals’ chances. Despite winning the World Series and two straight AL pennants, improvements made by the Tigers, White Sox and Indians during the off-season matched with expected regression and the expected loss of free agents largely lead to the Royals being expected to finish in the middle of the pack in the AL Central.
Well, the Royals didn’t lose Chris Young or Alex Gordon, bringing back the latter with a four year free agent deal worth at least $72M and they started off as hot as anyone, winning eight of their first ten and twelve of their first 18 including series wins against the in division rival Tigers and the first place Orioles. What no one expected, however, was that the White Sox would be equally hot, starting out 23-10 before coming back to Earth a little, now at 27-19.
As Chicago continued to gain ground, the Royals lost some of their luster. From April 25th through May 12th, Kansas City lost or split each series, dropping to 16-18 and third place behind Cleveland as well as Chicago. While they have played better since to bring their record back above .500, the Indians also have done that while Detroit has won seven of their last eight. Most expected the Central to be a tough win this year and already, the early season separation is disappearing with all but the Twins coming back into legitimate contention.
Now, both those free agents that the Royals worked so hard to bring back, Young and Gordon, are hurt. Gordon, the Royals’ top hitter, broke his wrist on May 22nd and will almost certainly be out for at least a month, possibly closer to two.
The Royals continue to win games in a similar fashion to the previous two seasons, with a shut down bullpen (best in the AL) and nearly perfect defense (third in AL) attempting to make up for a rather lackluster starting rotation and generally poor offense. Considering OPS, the Royals are the fourth weakest team in the AL and no matter how many runs they prevent, they will still have to score runs to compete. This is particularly true given that they have really only had one dependable starter this year and that is Ian Kennedy, currently putting together his second best season ever at the age of 31.
This shows the importance of Gordon and his absence, even if he wasn’t hitting particularly well. Only three Royals regulars are hitting better than Gordon – Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer, all players expected to lead the KC offense. They have done just that, but they need a little more than that if they are going to score enough to keep up with the White Sox and Indians and to stay ahead of the Tigers. They have tried quite a few players in the outfield and at second base, but no one has really fit and they are getting almost nothing out of the shortstop and DH positions with Alcides Escobar and Kendrys Morales.
The entire division (excluding the worst in MLB Twins) is now within four games and each of these four teams is at least at .500. The Royals are still well within the race, but if they thought they were going to run away with something after that strong start, they have to have restructured their expectations since. Each of these teams has a great weakness and multiple things going for them, but there is no question that the advantage currently goes to the two teams with the best pitching rotations, Chicago and Cleveland.
None of the four teams is out and, unless the Tigers go on a big losing streak, none are likely to be out for quite some time now. That being said, this upcoming stretch is still huge for Kansas City. If they want to stay in the middle of the pack or advance at all, they will have to put up some impressive numbers as 21 of their next 26 games come against the White Sox, Indians and Orioles. After their current set against Minnesota, the only sub-.500 team the Royals have on the schedule before June 24th is a three game set against the 20-22 Tampa Bay Rays, a team that shouldn’t be looked beyond themselves. This run wouldn’t be easy anyway, but it will be made even more so without the offensive and defensive abilities of Alex Gordon, who will be missing for the entire period.
