No one expected anything from the Twins last year, but the scrappy bunch of rookies and a couple underrated veterans (Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier in particular) put together a late run at the Wild Card in 2015. The question now is whether they will continue to progress or will their largely inexperienced roster find adjusting to the tough AL Central too much of a feat.
Depth Chart (as of 3/31)
C: Kurt Suzuki
1B: Joe Mauer
2B: Brian Dozier
3B: Trevor Plouffe
SS: Eduardo Escobar
LF: Eddie Rosario
CF: Byron Buxton
RF: Miguel Sano
DH: Byung-Ho Park
SP: Phil Hughes
SP: Ervin Santana
SP: Kyle Gibson
SP: Tyler Duffey
SP: Tommy Milone
CP: Glen Perkins
New Faces: Byung-Ho Park, John Ryan Murphy
Departures: Aaron Hicks, Torii Hunter, Mike Pelfrey, Blaine Boyer, Brian Duensing, Neal Cotts
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – MAY 25: Ricky Nolasco #47 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning of the game on May 25, 2015 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Red Sox 7-2. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
Position Battles
Most of the Twins lineup was established before spring started, but they did have a small battle in the rotation. Talent aside, the current rotation will be Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, and Phil Hughes followed by Tommy Milone, who was just given the fourth spot and Ricky Nolasco (who is owed a whole lot of money) in the fifth spot.
FORT MYERS, FL – MARCH 05: Joe Mauer #7 of the Minnesota Twins swings at a pitch during the third inning of a spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles at Hammond Stadium on March 5, 2016 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Injury Concerns
With a history of injuries (particularly concussions), Joe Mauer is always a concern for the Twins. However, going into the season this year they have three players who should be used almost exclusively at first or DH including Mauer. Because of this and extreme depth (at least at the slightly above league average level) all around the team, there is no one player whose removal would decimate this team.
PORT CHARLOTTE, FL – MARCH 6: Byung Ho Park #52 of the Minnesota Twins hits a grand slam home run off of pitcher Jake Odorizzi of the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning of an MLB spring training game on March 6, 2016 at Charlotte Sports Park in Port Charlotte, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Key Player
Yes, there will be the return of the incredible crop of rookies that the Twins debuted in 2015 including Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Trevor May, but the most interesting player on the 2016 Twins could be a player who is yet to make his MLB debut, Byung-ho Park. The Twins new first baseman is already 29 with nine years of professional experience in the Korean Baseball Organization. At just $12 million over four years, the slugger, who has 210 career home runs and a .281/.387/.564 batting line, could be a steal for the Twins if he hits even half as well as he did for the Nexen Heroes in 2014 and 2015 (105 home runs in 268 games).
FORT MYERS, FL – MARCH 16: Eddie Rosario #20 of the Minnesota Twins celebrates in the dugout with his teammates after hitting a solo home run in the fifth inning of the Spring Training Game against the Boston Red Sox on March 16, 2016 at CenturyLink Sports Complex and Hammond Stadium, Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Underrated Asset
Speaking again on rookies, Sano got all the attention, but with Mauer and Park at first base and DH, much of his value will be lost with his poor defense. Instead, it is Eddie Rosario who baseball fans should look for in the Minnesota outfield. In his 2015 rookie campaign, he actually had more extra base hits than Sano, including an MLB-best 15 triples, and he was a solid defender with a 9.3 UZR/150 across all three outfield positions. While he does strike out a lot, another year of experience should help him figure out the strike zone, and he shouldn’t lose the incredible package of power and speed that lead him to be one of the Twins top hitters in 2015. The Twins rotation and bullpen might not be good enough to push the Twins to the playoffs, but if players like Rosario, Sano, and Park can come through, they could have the best offense in the AL Central.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – OCTOBER 2: Ervin Santana #54 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning of the game on October 2, 2015 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
Burning Question: How long will money outweigh talent in the rotation?
Based on the end of the 2015 season, the Twins’ top five starters are Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Tommy Milone, Tyler Duffey, and Phil Hughes. Yet because the Twins owe Ervin Santana $50.5M over the next three seasons, Nolasco $25M over that same span, and Hughes $48.8M through 2019, they’ll be favorites for spots in the rotation. Considering that Santana was suspended half of 2015 due to a failed PED test and struggled in the half that he did pitch in, the Twins would be much better off with their other internal options. It’s possible Santana will come back and pitch like he did in 2013 with the Royals, but he is 33 years old now and either off the drugs or risking a full season suspension next time.
Nolasco is even worse and barely pitched this spring. The 33 year old hasn’t had a decent season since 2013 and any inclusion of him in the rotation or bullpen will only be for financial reasons. The question remains, how long will the Twins put up with either pitcher when there are more talented starters waiting below.
CLEVELAND, OH – SEPTEMBER 30: Kurt Suzuki #8 of the Minnesota Twins congratulates Eddie Rosario #20 Miguel Sano #22 and Trevor Plouffe #24 after they scored during the fourth inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on September 30, 2015 in Cleveland, Ohio during game one of a doubleheader. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Best Case Scenario
The Twins contended for the Wild Card last year and finished second in the AL Central despite no expectations coming into the season. This year, those expectations will be higher and if every 2015 rookie exceeds their production from last year, they could even exceed them. In what looks to be a tough AL Central from top to bottom, the best the Twins could do would be to win the division with at most 88 games. This is probably being overly generous, however.
Worst Case Scenario
As mentioned, the AL Central looks to be incredibly close this year and just as they could legitimately finish in first if everything goes right, the Twins could legitimately finish in last if it doesn’t. They should still win near 50% of their games (they won 83 in 2015), but given the improvements made by the other teams in the division, that won’t be enough. With a largely unproven offense and a less than stellar rotation (not to mention a bullpen missing their top set-up man from 2015), the Twins could finish somewhere around 75-78 wins if things go poorly.
Realistic Prediction
Given that the extremes I’ve postulated are between 78 and 88 wins, anywhere in that range could be considered realistic. With the combination of veteran (Mauer and Brian Dozier) and young (Sano and Rosario) hitters, the Twins won’t hurt for runs, but their pitching staff pales in comparison to their Central Division competition, particularly the Indians and White Sox. In the end, trying to play too many first basemen at the same time and being financially forced to use lesser pitchers will see them give up more runs than they can counter. Expect between 78 and 83 wins and a finish somewhere in the middle of the division, just outside of the playoff hunt.
