There’s only one way to go from the top, but the Royals will be trying to maintain their success in 2016 rather than falling back after achieving the ultimate victory in 2015. While there have been a few changes to the roster, Kansas City will be bringing back almost their entire roster of slap hitting, Gold Glove defending, and base stealing players as well as their impenetrable bullpen. Many have said that it was only luck that earned the Royals their first crown since 1985, but if they can stay on top for another season, they’ll prove everyone wrong.
Depth Chart (as of 4/1)
C: Salvador Perez
1B: Eric Hosmer
2B: Omar Infante
3B: Mike Moustakas
SS: Alcides Escobar
LF: Alex Gordon
CF: Lorenzo Cain
RF: Paulo Orlando
DH: Kendrys Morales
SP: Edinson Volquez
SP: Yordano Ventura
SP: Ian Kennedy
SP: Chris Young
SP: Kris Medlen
CP: Wade Davis
New Faces: Ian Kennedy, Joakim Soria
Departures: Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist, Alex Rios, Greg Holland, Jonny Gomes, Jeremy Guthrie
DETROIT, MI – SEPTEMBER 19: Terrance Gore #0 of the Kansas City Royals scores on the single by Christian Colon #24 during the seventh inning of the game against the Detroit Tigers on September 19, 2015 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Position Battles
Injuries and free agent signings simplified the Royals possible positional battles although there were still openings in the bullpen and the bench. The final bench spot race was still up in the air at the end of Spring Training with Cody Decker, Terrance Gore, and Whit Merrifield looking for one role or another.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JUNE 8: Manager Ned Yost #3 and assistant trainer Kyle Turner of the Kansas City Royals check on Jason Vargas #51 after a being hit by a ball during the fifth inning of the game on June 8, 2015 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Royals defeated the Twins 3-1. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
Injury Concerns
Left handed pitchers Jason Vargas and Tim Collins both had Tommy John surgery last season (Collins had a second one this March) and will miss all of 2016. Outfielder Jarrod Dyson strained his oblique at the beginning of Spring Training and he is expected to return early in the season. Of course, we’ve seen these oblique injuries linger on, particularly when a player rushes back, and they can cause a severe decline in play for an extended period.
Lorenzo Cain bats during a game against the Dodgers in Surprise, AZ. – Joseph Coblitz, BurningRiverBaseball
Key Player
While Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer get most of the offensive attention on the Royals, their top player in 2015 was their only .300 hitter and a man who stole 28 bases and hit 56 extra base hits. Lorenzo Cain was not only the team’s most important offensive performer (and the third place AL MVP finisher), but is an incredible defender and deserves an old school nickname like “Death to All Flying Things” or “The Place Where Triples Go to Die.”
In 2015, he had a UZR/150 of 14.5 in center field and in his career has held a 19 UZR/150 through over 4,000 innings in the outfield overall. Cain’s offensive numbers have steadily improved each of the last four seasons and now in his age 30 season, he should still be in his prime. Given the Royals’ questionable pitching rotation, having such a solid defender in center is a necessity, and at the plate, he could again be the Royals’ top hitter.
Alcides Escobar fouls one off against the Dodgers from 3/22 at Surprise Stadium. – Joseph Coblitz, BurningRiverBaseball
Underrated Asset
On the reigning World Champions, there are few players who are underrated, but one player who is a local favorite, but not known as well nationally is another solid defender, Alcides Escobar. While he doesn’t have a potent bat like Cain, he had a 6.1 UZR/150 last year at shortstop and was a huge part of the Royals league-best defense. As much as people wanted to say that the Royals won the World Series because of their great luck and relief pitching, it all started with their defense.
Since 2013, the Royals have lead the league in defense each year and it hasn’t been close. More than any individual player, this is the part of the team that is most underrated as they have saved 219.3 runs more than the average defense since 2013. While the shift more towards offense in 2015 created the worst of these three seasons, the Royals were still 56.9 runs saved above average and it looks like defense will be a primary focus again in 2016. At the moment, with the light hitting Escobar penciled in at short and the lighter hitting Omar Infante at second, the Royals know the formula that has made them a success over the last two seasons.
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 01: Mike Moustakas #8 of the Kansas City Royals bats against the New York Mets during Game Five of the 2015 World Series at Citi Field on November 1, 2015 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Burning Question: What is luck? (Baby Don’t Hurt Me)
The Royals hit for a high average last year (.269 and most of the roster is returning), but an extremely low slugging percentage (.412) given that average. In addition, they earned just a 99 wRC+ as a team, marking them as slightly lower than league average even though they finished seventh in baseball in runs scored. Some of this could be explained by their BABIP, except that it was only .301, just slightly above the league average. Instead, their offensive success could simply be because they put the ball in play more than any other team.
Royals hitters struck out in only 15% of at bats last year, best in the league and nearly 10% less than the Cubs, who struck out the most. The Royals don’t hit the ball hard or far, but they do hit it often and sometimes, all you have to do is put it in play to make something work. Because of this, improved defenses around the league could hurt the Royals as could bad luck the other way. In addition, one way the Royals avoided the strike out so well was by being extremely aggressive and often swinging at the first pitch multiple batters in a row. It’s surprising more pitchers didn’t take advantage of this last year by going out of the zone more often early in the count, but it’s hard to believe they won’t adjust now that the Royals are the team to beat.
KANSAS CITY, MO – NOVEMBER 03: A general view of crowds gathered in front of Union Station as the Kansas City Royals players hold a rally and celebration following a parade in honor of thier World Series win on November 3, 2015 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Best Case Scenario
As much as people want to ignore the fact that baseball is changing, the game has already changed. Defense-first teams are excelling, as are those with high contact rates. The parts of the game that the Royals excel at aren’t as variable year-to-year as some others and they should be nearly as good or even better than they were in 2015. If the starting rotation can keep things together, it shouldn’t be hard for the rest of the club to near their 95 wins from last season. Improvements to every other team in the Central could hurt that number some, but they still have plenty of ability to finish first in the division and win 92 to 94 games.
Worst Case Scenario
Despite winning the AL pennant in 2014, the Royals were looked over in 2015 by many writers and commentators and even though they won the World Series last year, it is happening again. Fangraphs projects them to just 77 wins and a last place finish in the AL Central. Even if they can’t regularly get five innings from their rotation, they will still have the best defense in baseball, consistent hitters who put the ball in play and don’t strike out and a dominant bullpen. I can’t imagine a team this talented finishing below the White Sox or Tigers and would say that their absolute worse case scenario would be about 81 wins and a third place finish.
Realistic Prediction
Legitimately, that rotation is scary considering how much the Royals are depending on Volquez, Kennedy, and Medlen. Any of the AL Central teams could technically win the division and chances are the whole thing will end up separated by a very small margin. Expect the Royals to finish first or second still with between 84 and 88 wins. This should also put them in prime Wild Card range and one way or another, they should be considered serious play-off contenders no matter what the stat gurus say.
