The 2015 season is barely two weeks old, but we’ve already witnessed a mass outpouring of offensive firepower from a few select hitters. Big names like Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt are already atop the WAR leaderboards, but what about the not-so prominent hitters? Let’s take a look at a handful of non-star players who are riding incredible hot streaks to start the season, and determine if they’re for real.
Lorenzo Cain – Kansas City Royals
We’re all aware of what Cain is capable of on the defensive side, but his bat is beginning to emerge as a powerful weapon as well. In his first 55 plate appearances of this year’s campaign, Cain has posted a .413 batting average that is solidified by his .484 wOBA and 213 wRC+. In case you’re unfamiliar with sabermetric terms, the latter means he’s created 113% more runs than league average. If that’s not the definition of insane, then show me a dictionary. Now, obviously he won’t be able to continue those mountain-high numbers, but he just might be able to be one of the best hitting center fielders in the game. He made a huge leap in offensive production in 2014 after a rather disappointing season prior, especially in terms of power. After swinging at pitches outside of the zone at a 10.9% clip last season, Cain now only chases 7.6% of the time. It’s a small sample size, but improvement is improvement.
Verdict: Cain’s hot start to the season is for real. If he continues to up his line-drive percentage and raise his power game, there’s no reason to think he can’t keep it going.
LOS ANGELES, CA – APRIL 18: DJ LeMahieu #9 of the Colorado Rockies hits a two-run home run in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on April 18, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images)
DJ LeMahieu – Colorado Rockies
As a Milwaukee Brewers fan, I’ve seen first-hand what LeMahieu can do to opposing pitchers as he was a tough out to get in that series. Heck, he’s been a tough out all season. His .468 on-base percentage is the seventh-highest mark in the majors and his 20 hits are the fifth-most in baseball. With that being said, however, he’s been a pretty lucky guy thus far. He owns a .514 batting average on balls in play, being one of two players (along with ex-teammate Michael Cuddyer) over .500. There’s no way that’s even remotely sustainable, especially for a guy who owns a career .337 BABIP. To expand on that, he’s batting .556 (10-for-18) when he hits a ground ball. League average batting average on ground balls was .239. His abundance of ground balls is not a good sign going forward.
Verdict: Luck has played too big a part in LeMahieu’s success this season, which is why I’m comfortable in saying his hot streak is not for real.
TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 15: Devon Travis of the Toronto Blue Jays hits an RBI double in the third inning during an MLB game against the Tampa Bay Rays on April 15, 2015 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. All uniformed team members are wearing jersey number 42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Devon Travis – Toronto Blue Jays
Travis is 21 years of old, is in his first big-league season and is raking at the plate. He has three home runs in 49 plate appearances and has accumulated a .453 wOBA to start his career. When looking at his batted ball profile, nothing discouraging jumps out. But because Travis doesn’t have any major-league history for us to look at, we can’t really be sure that his profile isn’t a fluke. There a few signs, though, that point to his hot start being somewhat legitimate. His .371 BABIP is high but by no means crazy and his strikeout rate (14%) is on the normal size. He may, however, be exhibiting too much power for him to sustain. That’s the biggest concern. Yet even if his power does tank a bit, he looks like the future in Toronto.
Verdict: It’s too early to label not only Travis’ hot streak, but also him as a player. From what I’ve seen, though, he has the tools to at least be a 1 to 2 WAR player.
