Even though the Oakland Athletics traded away the likes of 6.5 WAR player Josh Donaldson before the 2015 season commenced, the folks at FanGraphs projected them to have a 33% chance at making the playoffs. The A’s acquired Billy Butler, Ben Zobrist and Tyler Clippard to make up for some the rather surprising trades Billy Beane made, but so far, it hasn’t worked. Oakland is 13-23, and their playoff odds now sit at 12.6%.
So, why are the Athletics so bad? Is their offense stumbling?
The Athletics rank eight in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), 13th in weighted 0n-base average (wOBA) and 15th in on-base percentage. With the exception of their outstanding wRC +, their offense has been pretty much in the middle of the pack. It hasn’t been stellar, but it produces runs. They’ve hit more home runs than 20 other teams, and they strike out at a extremely low rate.
As a whole, the A’s offense, led by Stephen Vogt and Josh Reddick, is good, however, Butler and Zobrist have been abysmal. The latter has only appeared in 14 games because of a knee injury, but he was hitting .240 and had already produced a negative 0.7 WAR. Butler has been just as bad offensively, with an on-base percentage barely over .300. Those aren’t the players Beane traded for, and their lack of production is at least part of the reason the team is 10 games under .500. Zobrist is expected to start a rehab assignment next week, meaning he isn’t far away from returning. But the A’s need him to be the 5.6 WAR player he was in 2014.
Since we can’t really blame the bats for Oakland’s poor start to the season, maybe the fault lies with its pitching.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – MAY 7: Drew Pomeranz #13 of the Oakland Athletics delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning of the game on May 7, 2015 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
When looking at the six starters Oakland has used this season, a few high earned run averages jump out. Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Hahn have ERAs north of 4.60, and Kendall Graveman’s ERA was a whopping 8.27 after four starts before being demoted to the minors. But like ERA always is, their numbers are misleading. Pomeranz and Hahn both have relatively low FIPs, and Fielding Independent Pitching is a much more useful and reliable tool when analyzing a pitcher. It highlights the true talent of a pitcher. Pomeranz and Hahn have outperformed their ERAs, and their luck should turn around eventually. Luckily for the A’s, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir and Jesse Chavez have already pitched like aces with an average FIP of 3.05 and ERA of 2.54. Gray has been great since his rookie year in 2013, Kazmir has resurrected his career and Chavez had his coming out party two seasons ago.
Oakland’s rotation is really good; it’s their band of relievers who need help. The A’s bullpen has the third-highest ERA in Major League Baseball, and are in the negative WAR territory. They’ve somehow managed to blow seven saves while only saving four, and while Clippard’s ERA (1.69) says he’s been fantastic, his FIP (4.08) and xFIP (5.78) says he’s in for a turn of fortune. He’s just walking too many betters right now.
The Oakland Athletics are a good team despite their record. According to Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, their offense has been “remarkably unclutch.” In low-leverage situations, the Athletics have a .321 wOBA, but if you flip the page to high leverage situations, their wOBA falls to .308. That’s a pretty large gap. It’s a good thing the clutch stat isn’t predictive. The A’s have been quite unlucky this season, but could/should start performing well in high-leverage situations at any time, and as a fan of Beane’s “Moneyball” ways, I hope they do.
