The Washington Nationals are a popular pick among baseball writers (including the crew here at The Outside Corner) to win the 2015 World Series. (Personally, I’m rolling with the Nats for the third year in a row. This is the year!)
Winning the NL East seems like a formality for a team that already had a powerhouse roster, yet added infielder Yunel Escobar, reliever Casey Janssen and the jewel of the 2015 MLB free agent class, pitcher Max Scherzer. The Marlins and Mets both figure to be improved this season and could be postseason contenders. But it’s highly unlikely either team will challenge the Nats in the division.
Typically, you’d say the only thing that can hold a team like Washington back is injuries. But the roster assembled by general manager Mike Rizzo appeared to have enough depth to even overcome that standard concern. Tanner Roark compiled a 2.85 ERA and nearly pitched 200 innings last season, yet can’t crack the Nats’ starting rotation. Taylor Jordan and A.J. Cole could also get a look later on. Dan Uggla and Ian Stewart were once impact hitters for their respective teams, and fill out the fringes of the roster in D.C.
However, as the Nats are ready to break spring camp in Viera, Fla., injuries could indeed be what holds this team back at the start of the season. Instead of putting distance between themselves and the Mets and Marlins, that gap might be closer than expected in April and May — and perhaps beyond. That deep roster is going to be tested, as reserves will have to fill holes in that starting lineup and replace major contributors.
PHOENIX, AZ – MAY 12: Anthony Rendon #6 of the Washington Nationals during the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on May 12, 2014 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
The most concerning injury the Nats are dealing with as the season begins is the sprained MCL in Anthony Rendon’s left knee that limited him to just three games this spring and will force him to the disabled list. The knee won’t require surgery, which is positive news. But the third baseman has been flying all over the country, seeking second and third opinions on his knee, but none offered a better diagnosis.
But this is where getting Escobar already pays dividends for the Nationals. He’ll fill in at third base to open the season, despite only playing 22 games at the position in his eight-year MLB career. Danny Espinosa will take over at second, where the Nats already know he can play. And Uggla could help out there when needed, another savvy move that could yield some benefits.
Filling two holes in the outfield will strain Washington’s roster depth even further, however. Denard Span and Jayson Werth are both expected to begin the year on the DL. The Nats were prepared for not having Span after he underwent his second core muscle surgery of the offseason in early March. But top prospect Michael Taylor was already on hand to take over at the position that will likely be his next year when Span moves on. Werth’s absence was less expected. Though he had arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder in January, he was projected to be ready for opening day.
Bryce Harper can sub for Werth in right field, but that leaves a noticeable hole in left. The Nationals hoped to have Nate McLouth available to help out, but he’s still recovering from surgery to repair a torn right labrum last season.
PHOENIX, AZ – MAY 14: Tyler Moore #12 of the Washington Nationals bats against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the MLB game at Chase Field on May 14, 2014 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Nationals defeated the Diamondbacks 5-1. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Here’s where Rizzo is surely happy that he didn’t trade Tyler Moore during the offseason. The 27-year-old has never been able to break through after putting up big minor league numbers in 2010 and 2011. Being blocked by Harper and Adam LaRoche certainly didn’t help, but neither did Moore’s performance during his time in the majors. Now, however, he’ll be the left fielder while Werth is sidelined. After hitting .327 with an .897 OPS this spring, the Nats probably feel pretty good about that. If Moore finally follows through on his promise, Rizzo will have a nice problem to confront with the outfield.
But perhaps the most disappointing of the team’s early injuries is the one to Janssen. The 33-year-old reliever was already an injury concern after back and abdominal issues limited him to 50 games and a 3.94 ERA last year. There’s a reason Janssen was available for a one-year, $5 million contract. The hope was that he could replace Tyler Clippard as the bullpen’s setup man in front of closer Drew Storen. Janssen had a MRI on his right shoulder and he was diagnosed with rotator cuff tendinitis. Considering the other more serious possibilities, that’s viewed as good news.
However, if the Nationals had one perceived weakness on their roster, it was the bullpen. Losing Janssen, even if for a short period of time, affects the unit’s depth and if Storen struggles as closer, manager Matt Williams has one less option to turn to. It appears that the relief corps has arms to replace Janssen in Aaron Barrett and Blake Treinen. Barrett is likely ready for a bigger role in the bullpen after striking out 49 batters in 40.2 innings and posting a 2.66 ERA. Treinen was less of a strikeout threat, but managed a 2.49 ERA last year.
For now, the depth that Rizzo has constructed will likely get the Nationals through what could be some choppy waters early in the season. But if those injuries linger — especially to key players like Rendon, Span and Werth — that roster flexibility could tighten up and less talent in the lineup could prevent the Nats from pulling away in the NL East. Though the number of maladies is obviously a concern, they’re occurring early enough in the season for the team to recover. The Nats are still the best team in MLB. Being able to withstand these injuries is a major reason why.
