Through seven games, the National League standings are a mess. The 6-1 Braves, roundly projected to finish fourth in the NL East, are doubling up their opposition on the season. The always erratic Colorado Rockies are 5-2 – and are 4-0 on the road, always a challenging task for them. After rolling through the bulk of the rest of the league, hovering around the .500 mark, you get to the dregs of the league. The Miami Marlins are 1-6, but were unlucky enough to draw two of their first three series against this hot Braves team. The Milwaukee Brewers are 2-5, similarly victimized by the hot Rockies and a great Pirates team.
But then there are the Washington Nationals, who are 2-5 through seven games, much to the shock of baseball fans across the country. The Nationals didn’t exactly start with a tough schedule, facing off with the Mets and Phillies before heading to Boston, but they haven’t won a series (let alone consecutive games) yet. Given all of the preseason hype surrounding Washington, their struggles are unexpected and fans may be getting a little worried. But *should* those fans be worried? Are the Nationals really this bad?
In a word, no. Of course they’re not this bad. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some concerns about this team and it’s performance so far.
PHILADELPHIA, PA – APRIL 12: Max Scherzer #31 of the Washington Nationals delivers a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on April 12, 2015 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Let’s get one thing out of the way quickly – despite what a silly DC area columnist says, this start doesn’t fall on the shoulders of Washington’s pitching staff. Through seven games, the Nationals rotation has a 3.38 ERA. While that’s only tenth in the league, their FIP is fifth, signifying there’s some room for things to turn around. The club’s starting five has the eighth-worst strand rate in the league, which allows us to point some of the finger at awful luck. On the other side of the coin, their rotation has allowed just one home run in 40 innings this year, a horrendously low and unsustainable rate.
The team’s bullpen has also been fine, pitching to a 2.82 ERA in 22 1/3 innings. Given their low strikeout rate, high walk rate, and high strand rate, that ERA will likely start to balloon, but their pen isn’t exactly a dumpster fire like say, that of the Chicago White Sox.
Where the Nationals are struggling is simple – their offense and defense have been pitiful, due in large part to the injuries the team is dealing with. Jayson Werth made his season debut on Monday and got the start in left field, his first time playing that corner since 2009 with the Phillies. Before Werth’s return, the Nationals primarily played Reed Johnson, Tyler Moore, and Clint Robinson in left. Yep – a contender went into Opening Day giving regular playing time to a 38-year old journeyman, a 30-year old career minor leaguer, and a 28-year old with 180 games played in the majors. Yeah, Werth isn’t the same player he was in his prime with Philadelphia, but he’s a better option than any of those three, left field inexperience be damned.
In center, 24-year old rookie Michael Taylor has started every game. Taylor is a highly-touted prospect, but has struggled in his major league career so far, striking out 28 times in 74 plate appearances. There’s clearly plenty of potential there, but Taylor isn’t Denard Span, who hit .302/.355/.416 over 147 games in 2014.
WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 06: Ian Desmond #20 and Dan Uggla #26 of the Washington Nationals look on as a ball hit by David Wright #5 of the New York Mets (not pictured) drops between them in the sixth inning during Opening Day at Nationals Park on April 6, 2015 in Washington, DC. Desmond was charged with an error on the play. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
And then, there’s the mess in the infield. 2014 MVP top five finisher Anthony Rendon is on the DL, which has resulted in assumed starting second baseman Yunel Escobar shifting across the diamond to third base. Replacing Escobar at second? The inimitable duo of Dan Uggla and Danny Espinosa, who combined to hit .198/.267/.310 and accrue a whopping -0.1 fWAR over 521 plate appearances in 2014. Those two are replacing Rendon in the lineup. When you combine all those fill-ins with the struggles of Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman, it’s no wonder this team is struggling.
I’d also like to give some attention to Washington’s defense, which has been pitiful so far in 2015. Through seven games, the Nationals have already racked up -10 DRS, which is so awful that it’s almost impressive. The only teams with worse marks in 2015 are the Twins and Indians, and the only NL team within seven runs of Washington’s total is the Giants at -5. The left side of the infield has been particularly rough, thanks to Escobar at third (playing there for the first time since 2007) and the erratic Ian Desmond at short each contributing -2 runs to the total. Desmond has already made five errors too, in case advanced stats aren’t your thing.
There’s obviously a lot to unpack here, and we can’t react too strongly to a seven game sample. Crazy stuff can happen through seven games – Sal Perez can slug .759. DJ LeMahieu can hit .517. Evan Gattis can strike out 13 times in 25 plate appearances. Curtis Granderson can have a .370 OBP with one hit to his name. The Nationals are too good of a team not to turn it around, especially if they can roll out their full strength lineup later this month. But right now, they’re a tough team to watch, and the rest of the NL East needs to take advantage of those struggles if they want to knock the reigning champions off of their perch.
Just remember 2013, when the Nationals got off to a slow start and the Braves caught fire. Washington was six games out at the All-Star Break, and never got closer than that, despite a 34-20 finish. You can’t put too much stock in April performances, but wins in April matter just as much as they do in September, and the Nationals can’t just coast and assume the rest of the division will fall apart around them.
