Back in mid-May I wrote about the prospect of trading Carlos Gonzalez. The point of that article was to suggest that the Colorado Rockies had missed out on their chance to trade the one-time MVP caliber outfielder. As we are now just one week away from the trade deadline CarGo’s name is popping up in rumors again. However I’m not sure enough has happened to change my mind about his trade value.
On the season Carlos Gonzalez is hitting .258/.315/.455. That’s not awful but it’s still below league average. His 94 wRC+ puts him 6% below league average to be precise. However that does obscure some more recent improvements. Since writing the original article on May 14, Gonzalez has hit .292/.348/.531. That’s squarely above average (124 wRC+).
Under different circumstances it seems more than enough improvement to warrant an increased likelihood of a trade happening. Unfortunately for the Rockies, Carlos Gonzalez’s contract remains a significant obstacle. He is owed the rest of his $16 million contract this year and is signed through the 2017 season. He makes $17 M next year and $20 M in 2017 plus $1 M every time he is traded. That’s approximately $44.5 M owed to him through 2017.
Again, under different circumstances that contract might not be a problem. However, Carlos Gonzalez has spent quite a lot of time on the disabled list over his career. He missed significant time last year to hand, knee, and ankle injuries.
One would have to believe the last two months are more representative of Gonzalez’s true talent level than the previous month and last year. It’s easy enough to dismiss last year’s poor production due to his extensive injuries. But it’s not so easy to dismiss those injures themselves. Even if the Rockies covered some of his salary (which they absolutely will have to in order to facilitate a trade in the first place), you’re still on the hook for significant money over 2+ seasons.
I can’t see a team parting with significant prospects to take that gamble. The Rockies would have to mimic the Dodgers trade of Matt Kemp where they pay off about half of his contract to get one decent player back. That isn’t impossible. But it feels like a trade that takes time to organize and is better suited to the offseason months.
But in a market that could see Justin Upton and Carlos Gomez available, not mention cheaper options like Jay Bruce and Gerardo Parra, I can’t envision a robust market for the Rockies outfielder. That makes it harder to find that team willing to overpay.
The other option is to accept a package of lesser prospects in order to save the most money. If the Rockies don’t believe Carlos Gonzalez will get back to his old self or maintain his recent production, it is possible they’d take the salary relief. It seems unlikely though as they could have more easily traded CarGo (and Troy Tulowitzki) in the past for salary relief and better prospects. They chose not to.
In my opinion, it seems highly unlikely Carlos Gonzalez gets moved by the deadline. He’s an oft-injured player who has had uneven production over the last year. Even if the recent production is enough to pique a desperate team’s interest the contract remains a significant obstacle that will preclude some teams altogether.
Maybe CarGo is finally healthy and will start producing closer to his peak. If that’s the case the Rockies are much better off keeping him and not selling low. That seems the most likely scenario at this point. It’ll be easier to get a deal done in the offseason anyway.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
