Mike Pelfrey, welcome to the Minnesota Twins starting rotation…again.
On Friday, Major League Baseball handed Twins’ starter Ervin Santana an 80-game suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs, thus opening a spot in the rotation for Pelfrey. While losing a strong No. 2 starter in Santana is a pretty big punch-to-the-gut for a team right on the brink of turning the corner, replacing him with a pitcher like Pelfrey is even more of a devastation.
That is, unless Pelfrey can somehow pitch like he did in 2008 and 2010.
The Twins had almost no shot at competing for the playoffs in 2015 with Santana, so even if Pelfrey pitches like an ace (the chances of that are laughable), things won’t look much different come September. However, the Twins need Pelfrey to step up and at least pitch adequately for two big reasons. For one, if Pelfrey pitches well, the Twins will win a few more games, and if the Twins win a few more games, more tickets will be sold for those said games. That means more money for the organization, and money is always good. Secondly, if Pelfrey is 2008-esque, he could be a hot commodity on the trade market. Pelfrey doesn’t fit in Minnesota’s future plans, not with Trevor May and Alex Meyer knocking on the big league’s door, so shipping him away for a prospect would be beneficial.
But the question remains; can Pelfrey step up and be the pitcher the Twins need?
Pelfrey spent most of 2014 — his second season in Minnesota — on the disabled list with a series of injuries and appeared in only five major league games. His first season with the Twins was a catastrophe in terms of ERA (5.19), but FIP thought he pitched better than that, and Pelfrey finished with 1.9 fWAR. Over his nine-year career, Pelfrey has been worth 10.6 fWAR. Thirty percent of that WAR came in 2008, however.
He’s never been a strikeout pitcher and has been a victim of a high BABIP throughout his career. Those paired together is a pitcher’s nightmare. Don’t expect Pelfrey’s BABIP to change much this season, as the Twins’ defense ranked 29th in Defensive Runs Saved in 2014.
The Twins are definitely hurt by the loss of Santana, and Pelfrey certainly doesn’t seem capable of filling his shoes. His track record is poor, and his injury history is even more disturbing. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pelfrey was replaced in the rotation before Santana’s suspension times out. As a Twins fan, who would you rather see between Pelfrey and May/Meyer? I doubt fans are going to hide their displeasure for long if things go south.
The fact remains that the while the Twins won’t be playing in October this year, they still need Pelfrey to come in and do his job. Trading him is the best-case scenario for the organization. Pelfrey himself is probably aware that he’ll be auditioning for a new team. Both sides win if Pelfrey pitches well.
