We’re currently 17 days away from the July 31 trade deadline and nothing of note has happened yet. That will change soon. The All-Star game is tonight and this Friday marks the start of the symbolic second half. It’s also when this year’s slow to develop trade market will start in earnest. I won’t hazard a guess as to who is going where or for what. But that a number of relievers will change hands is as close to a guarantee as there is during the trade season. With that in mind I’ve made a list of the most obvious candidates I could think.
Reds- Aroldis Chapman
The trade market has been slow to develop this year in part because teams like the Reds have taken so long to decide if they’re selling or not. One has to wonder what would be going through that collective front office’s mind to make them think they’re in a position not to sell. They’re the 4th worst team in the National League right now. As such, with the trade deadline less than 3 weeks away they’ll almost certainly sell. The question now becomes how hard they will sell.
Johnny Cueto will get most of the headlines but Aroldis Chapman could fetch them a handsome prospect package if they Reds stop fooling themselves and dangle the flamethrower. In all of baseball only Dellin Betances (42.9 K%) tops Chapman’s 40.9 K%. His 1.69 ERA is 10th in baseball and his 1.71 FIP is third lowest. The man averages 99.7 mph on his fastball. No one else comes close to that (98.1 mph is second).
Aroldis Chapman makes $8,050,000 this year and will enter his third and final arbitration season next year. That means he’ll be due a sizable raise next year. That might inhibit his market somewhat, but not his value. Any team that wants him will have to pay through the nose. Since the Reds do have control through next season they can fall back on that if teams try to low-ball them.
Padres- Craig Kimbrel, Joaquin Benoit
It’s hard to believe the Padres would find themselves in a position to sell after they made arguably the most drastic changes this past offseason with an eye towards the postseason. Yet at the All-Star break they are 10 games back of the Dodgers and 7.5 back of the second wild card. With so many teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race it’s hard to see them as contenders.
They have what would likely the be the second most coveted reliever after Aroldis Chapman. It’s still possible Craig Kimbrel would be the most sought reliever. He has been one of the most dominating relievers in the last half decade. This year his 3.24 ERA looks human, but his peripherals are still top notch: 43.8 K%, .234 BAA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.63 FIP. It’s likely he’s been hurt by poor defense behind him but his 10.1 BB% is poor. While his 0.81 HR/9 isn’t bad it is a career high.
Kimbrel is owed $11 M next year, $13 M in 2017, and has a $13 M team option ($1 M buyout) for 2018. That’s a lot of money for a reliever. Teams will still be in the mix for him but it will limit which teams are able to acquire him. And again, with so much team control left the Padres will have leverage enough that they can hold out for the best prospect package, even if that means they don’t trade him this year.
Joquin Benoit could be another Padres reliever on the move. He’s more of a setup guy or depth option though. His 12.3 K%-BB% is only league average but his .146 BAA and 0.90 WHIP are well above average. His 2.36 ERA looks nice but his 4.06 FIP and 1.62 BABIP suggest he might be getting lucky.
He has a vesting option similar to Jonathan Papelbon’s but his has no chance of vesting. So the acquiring team will only need to account for a prorated portion of his $8 M salary. He’s not one of the best relief options on the market but he is one of the cheaper ones.
Phillies – Jonathan Papelbon
Papelbon has been rumored to be on the move for years now. The main reason Papelbon hasn’t been moved to date is his extremely expensive $13 M vesting option for next year. Be aware, “finishing” games does not mean getting saves. He needs only finish 19 more games the rest of the season for it to vest.
Papelbon also has no-trade protection in his contract. He can block trades to 17 teams. If one of those teams wants to acquire the reliever he would almost certain ask for his vesting option to become guaranteed. In other words, it’s incredibly likely that any team acquiring him will be on the hook for the prorated portion of this year’s $13 million plus $13 M for next year’s salary.
Papelbon doesn’t have the gaudy strikeout numbers some of the others listed here do, but he’s been as effective as anyone. His 1.60 ERA ranks 17th in baseball. His 2.74 FIP isn’t quite as elite (36) but still quite good. If you believe in the “proven closer” thing then Papelbon passes that test too.
It’s not really a question of how good Papelbon is. He’s still an upper echelon reliever. It’s a question of a teams willingness and/or ability to handle his salary. His attitude might be an issue as well.
Brewers – Francisco Rodriguez, Neal Cotts
Francisco Rodriguez’s 1.41 ERA ranks 9th in baseball. His 2.42 FIP is 25th. His 23.3 K%-BB% is 17th. His .171 BAA is 16th. His 0.88 WHIP is 12th. Clearly he is one of the best relievers in baseball once again. He still might not get moved.
Don’t believe someone if they tell you he won’t get moved because of his contract. It’s not bad at all. He makes $3.5 M this year, $7.5 M next year ($2 M of which is deferred until 2018). He also has a $6.5 M team option ($2 M buyout) for 2017. At team that picks him up will owe a prorated portion of that $3.5 M plus at least $9.5 M if they take the buyout in 2017. If they were to pick up the option that would make it $14 M. In other words, he’ll make less now through 2017 than Papelbon will make between this year and 2016. Plus, K-Rod has been the better pitcher.
If Rodriguez stays put it’s because teams have been scared off by his off field issues. Back when he was with the Mets he assaulted his father-in-law. Then in 2012 he allegedly assaulted his girlfriend. The charges were dropped when she left the country. After the Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson stories broke in the offseason MLB has paid closer attention to domestic violence. They even changed their official policy on the matter.
If you paid attention to Neal Cotts earlier this season you would be as surprised as I am that he will likely be moved at the trade deadline. The lefty had some big time trouble early on but has been able to whittle down his ERA now to a respectable 3.50. With a sparkling 186/220/304 opponent slash vs LHH and a dismal 279/375/468 vs RHH he’s really best as a lefty specialist. But teams are always looking for that. The cost to acquire him will be very modest but Brewers fans have to be happy to get anything at all.
Braves – Jim Johnson
Jim Johnson looked like his major league career might be over with last year. He pitched 53.1 innings to a 7.09 ERA and 5.08 FIP. This year he’s completely reversed that. So far he’s thrown 43 innings with a 2.09 ERA and 3.29 FIP. While he doesn’t strike out a high number of batters he does induce an extreme amount of ground balls (60.0 GB%).
Johnson is a free agent after this year and his makes a total of $1.6 M (plus $900,000 possible through incentives) this year. He should have a strong market for his services because of that. With the unfortunate injury to Jason Grilli Johnson will step in as closer but any team that would acquire him would likely use him as a setup or depth option.
Statistics and contract information courtesy of FanGraphs
