Please indulge me as I begin this post with a qualifier: As someone who’s covered the Detroit Tigers and grew up rooting for them, I understand how this team has operated under Mike Ilitch’s ownership and Dave Dombrowski’s tenure as president and general manager. I realize that most of the following column will be hypothetical.
Going into Tuesday’s play, the Tigers are barely above .500 at 42-40. That places Detroit third in the AL Central, 5.5 games back from the Royals and 1.5 behind the Twins. The team also just took the body blow of Miguel Cabrera suffering a calf strain expected to sideline him for six weeks. Detroit was a .500 club with Cabrera in the lineup. How well can the Tigers be expected to fare without their best player?
OK, I ask that you indulge me one more time. Full disclosure: I was ready to write this piece before Cabrera went down. The Tigers were already performing well below expectations, playing below-.500 ball in both May and June, while Kansas City is exceeding preseason projections and looks like the best team in the AL. So this isn’t a reflexive reaction to an injury, as significant as Cabrera’s is for the Tigers. That calf strain just makes this post easier to write.
As soon as the news of Cabrera’s injury broke, the question mushroomed throughout Baseball Twitter: Should the Tigers be sellers at the trade deadline? The likely answer is that they won’t.
Though Detroit currently holds third place in the AL Central, a 5.5-game deficit is hardly insurmountable. The Twins are also in front of the Tigers, but can they maintain their lead and realistically hang on to a wild-card bid? Minnesota went 11-17 in June, really has no consistent impact hitter besides (should-be All-Star) Brian Dozier — though Torii Hunter is still productive — and is depending on Ervin Santana, along with call-ups like Miguel Sano and (the currently injured) Byron Buxton, to provide a boost.
DETROIT, MI – OCTOBER 21: President CEO General Manager David Dombrowski talks to the press during the retirement announcement of manager Jim Leyland at Comerica Park on October 21, 2013 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Nabbing one of the AL’s wild-card spots is probably more realistic, however. And the Tigers are very much alive in that race, just 1.5 games away from a postseason bid, though six other teams are in contention.
Detroit is not going to sell when it’s that close to the playoffs. Dombrowski likely won’t give up on trying to make it to October, and Ilitch most certainly won’t sign off on calling it a season. Not when postseason games bring in significant revenue and a fanbase expects to compete for a World Series. And not when the Royals and Giants have shown that qualifying as a wild-card can lead to postseason success.
It’s far more likely that the Tigers act as buyers before the trade deadline. The question is how much ammunition Dombrowski has to make an impact deal that could tip the balance of power in the AL during the stretch run and into the postseason. Detroit has been underestimated before due to a minor league system routinely ranked among the worst in MLB. Yet Dombrowski has masterfully utilized the young talent he’s had to pull off big trades, most recently getting David Price just before the July 31 deadline last year.
The Tigers might be able to cobble together a package — based more in quantity than quality — to get some starting pitching help like Aaron Harang, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake or Scott Kazmir. If Dombrowski parted with the right players, maybe Johnny Cueto could even be in play. But should Detroit tap out its minor league system even further, or cut bait on a still-promising talent like Nick Castellanos, for a grab at the postseason that won’t likely have a big payoff? At what point do the Tigers start thinking seriously about the future?
That point should be now. The massive contracts given to Cabrera and Justin Verlander, along with the three-year deal Victor Martinez signed in the offseason, have handcuffed Detroit’s payroll for at least the next four years, so younger, cheaper talent has to be acquired to fill in those holes. Those three players aren’t going to be traded, and can still constitute a veteran core to build around. But in the meantime, Dombrowski has other pieces to work with.
OAKLAND, CA – MAY 26: David Price #14 of the Detroit Tigers pitches against the Oakland Athletics during the second inning at O.co Coliseum on May 26, 2015 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)
Price isn’t going to re-sign with Detroit — why would he, after seeing the contracts Max Scherzer and Jon Lester got in free agency last winter? — so he needs to be utilized to get some young pitching that the organization sorely lacks. There is no next great arm, or even really a good one, developing in the minors. Alfredo Simon probably won’t yield much, so it might be better to just take a compensatory draft pick. But the Tigers should at least explore his value.
Yoenis Cespedes could also fetch a decent return, with right-handed power being at a premium throughout MLB and the free-swinger hitting for a high average and getting on base this year. Relievers especially closers are always in demand, and Joakim Soria has been successful enough this year to draw major interest from a contender. There would be some comedy in the Tigers trading a reliever when they perpetually need bullpen help. But if Detroit were to sell, it makes no sense to keep Soria.
Sanchez is probably next year’s No. 1 starter, unless Verlander can rebound from recent struggles, but with two years of team control remaining, why not see what sort of interest he might draw on the trade market? The same holds true for Kinsler, though Detroit would probably have to eat some of his salary to get something of note in return. Sanchez is more likely to get that much-needed young pitching, though.
Dombrowski even has two red-button options to consider. Castellanos is only 23 years old and probably far too young to give up on, especially because he’s inexpensive and under four more years of team control. But the Tigers might also be able to sell him as a change-of-scenery candidate who could benefit from a new team and approach, and perhaps lower expectations.
DETROIT, MI – JULY 2: J.D. Martinez #28 of the Detroit Tigers hits a three run home run in the eighth inning of the interleague game against the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 2, 2015 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Selling high on J.D. Martinez might also be a smart idea. It would be wildly unpopular with Tigers fans, but so would selling to begin with. Martinez has shown he’s not a one-year fluke, putting up All-Star numbers this season. But he supplies that coveted right-handed power and has two more years of arbitration eligibility. He could bring a solid return of prospects in return.
Trading two young, cheaper players under multiple years of team control runs counter to the idea of trying to reduce payroll and create a younger overall roster. But the Tigers have to trade value to get value in return, and with Price eligible for free agency after this season, he will only yield so much in a potential deal. Dombrowski will have to make a deal that hurts if he really wants to add impact prospects to the farm system.
Having said all of this, it’s not the Tigers’ style to become sellers. You’ve already heard the platitudes that Ilitch isn’t getting any younger and wants a World Series before he ascends to that pizza palace in the sky.
There’s also the growing sentiment, expressed most recently by the New York Post‘s Joel Sherman, that Detroit is on the verge of becoming the next Phillies, an old team with aging, overpaid players that should have been traded when they still had value. I think that’s overstated, if for no other reason than Dombrowski is smarter than Ruben Amaro Jr. He’s traded Doug Fister and let Scherzer go in order to create some payroll flexibility and get a bit younger.
But every successful team reaches a point where the run has been taken as far as it can. The Tigers are there now, but have the opportunity to refuel for the next run at contention and a World Series. This wouldn’t be giving up, so much as creating a better future. And it can be accomplished without taking a wrecking ball to the franchise and waiting years for young talent to develop, as the Cubs and Astros have done.
Trying to rebuild while contending may be one of the most difficult tricks to pull off in sports, but Dombrowski has shown he’s capable of doing so. He just faces some tougher choices now than he has in past years. It’s time to make those decisions.
