We are about to enter the free agent frenzy that is the MLB offseason. Hundreds of millions (and probably into the billions) of dollars will be thrown around, players will join new teams, and fans will react in excitement or agony with the new pieces their club has acquired. It’s not all positive, however, as under the pressure of adding players, general managers can throw around ridiculous money and overpay players badly.
Here are three players who could get overpaid this offseason.
Daniel Murphy
Murphy’s going to get serious money. The question is – how much?
Murphy looked like he was on his way to a huge contract after homering in six straight games, playing the best baseball of his life against the Chicago Cubs in the NLCS. He crashed his rising stock with an ugly World Series, as hit bat regressed, and he made multiple costly errors costing the Mets mightily as the Royals took advantage of his mistakes. But despite his struggles, he’s still a hot commodity.
What teams should expect is a slightly above average second baseman, with a little bit of pop, who can field second adequately. He managed a career-high 14 home runs in 2015, but that’s probably as good as it gets in terms of power. He’s an excellent contact hitter, striking out only 38 times in 130 games, but doesn’t draw a ton of walks. There are a lot of teams who could use that, but he’s not a star player. The second base market crop is strong this year, with Howie Kendrick, Ben Zobrist, and Asdrubal Cabrera all available. Teams will spend big to nab one of them, Murphy included.
The Mets plan on extending a $15.8 million qualifying offer his way, which he will surely decline. He could see a payday in excess for $12-15 million per season spread over three or four years, which is a heck of a price to pay for someone slightly above replacement level. He’s 30-years old and isn’t going to improve with age, so buyers should be beware they aren’t getting peak-Murphy.
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Matt Wieters
Wieters comes into the offseason being the best free agent catcher – by far.
There are quite a few teams in need of a catcher, like the Seattle Mariners or Chicago White Sox, and despite the red flag of being just over one year removed from Tommy John Surgery, Wieters should have no problem finding a lucrative deal.
Orioles intend to extend a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters, not surprisingly. He'll be a one-of-a-kind item in a limited catching market.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 2, 2015
Wieters returned from surgery in June and ended up hitting .267 with a .319 OBP and eight home runs in 75 games. The three-time All-Star has pop and when healthy he’s a threat to launch 20+ home runs. Wieters’ defensive game is his bread and butter, the 2011 and 2012 Gold Glove Award winner is an excellent game-caller and still can throw runners out above the regular rate, but he’s not at the level as he was in the award-winning seasons. His dWar has decreased each season since 2011 and hasn’t been positive since 2012.
Wieters isn’t going to be a detriment wherever he signs, but with his injury history, potentially declining skillset, and weak free agent competition, his contract points to an overpay.
Colby Lewis
Lewis isn’t the crème de la crème of the starting pitching market, nor is he due for an $100 million contract, but some team is going to give Lewis too much money in an attempt to replicate what appears to be a good 2015 season.
Lewis was a reliable starter for the Rangers, logging over 200 innings and posting 17 wins, the fifth most in the American League. He can eat innings, but the wins were due to getting the second most run support per nine innings in the entire league. He was below average for most of the year, as teams hit .266 with 26 home runs off the righty and he posted a 4.66 ERA.
If a team nibbles and gives Lewis anything more than a one-year deal worth $10 million+, he should immediately take it. He’s an innings eater, nothing more. At 36-years old, Lewis is probably looking for as much security as possible, and it’s likely he’ll get a multi-year deal. It’s just not a worthy investment.
