I’ve said this many times in the past about many different things, but Major League Baseball rules are nothing if not convoluted. In this instance, I’m talking about free agent qualifying offers. A qualifying offer is a one year guaranteed contract worth the average salary of the top 100 highest paid players. Teams are allowed to extend a qualifying offer to departing free agents. If that player declines then the team that signs him – if it’s not the team that extended the qualifying offer – has to forfeit their top draft pick. This system has been in place for three years and not a single player – not Michael Cuddyer, not even Kendrys Morales – has ever accepted the qualifying offer. That very likely will change this winter.
This year, twenty players were extended a qualifying offer. It’s the largest class since the system was put in place. Teams have gotten more aggressive each offseason in extending the qualifying offer. The first year, it was mostly extended to players that were viewed as safe bets to turn it down. Then over the last two years, we saw some players get qualifying offers that I thought might accept them. Obviously none did. This year, teams have pushed it even further. I’m not sure if in some cases they were shooting for the draft pick or hoping the player would return.
Regardless there are three players I think just might accept the qualifying offer. These are those players:
Marco Estrada
I’ve previously written about Marco Estrada being a sleeper type bargain. His track record is somewhat uneven but he’s shown elite level strike out skills on more than one occasion. However because he’s not far removed from a season where he led MLB in home runs allowed and he’s bounced between the bullpen and rotation for most of his career, I’m not convinced he can land a three-year deal. Nor do I believe he can eclipse more than 20 million on a two year deal. Therefore accepting almost $16 million for one year seems like a safer bet to secure the most money long term. For that kind of money, he’ll probably find himself penciled in for a rotation spot. That gives him another season to build up his track record and then try free agency again next year.
Ian Kennedy
In the last four seasons Kennedy kept his ERA under 4.00 just once. Now he’s coming off a season where he accrued a 4.28 ERA while allowing home runs at a rate of 1.66 HR/9. His 31 home runs allowed puts him just two shy of the most allowed in the league – a title held by teammate James Shields. That’s not a compelling portfolio heading into free agency. But like Marco Estrada he has shown high level strikeout ability in the past. And he’s just one season removed from a 3.63 ERA and 3.21 FIP. It’s entirely possible someone would sign Kennedy for something like 3/30 hoping he can have a rebound season. But if he accepts the QO, he can make half that in a season and perhaps set himself up for a better payday next offseason when there won’t be as many starting pitchers on the market.
John Lackey
I actually think Lackey could get a 2-3 year contract for some pretty good money if that’s what he wants to do. But I’m not sure that’s what he wants to do. He’s 37 years old and was talking about retiring last winter. That could have just been sour grapes at having to play for league minimum because of a quirk in his previous contract. I’m not sure. But if he’s considering it taking a one year deal for $15.8 million and pushing that decision off for a year isn’t a bad option.
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Without that draft pick attached to them I think each of these players could get at least two year deal worth more in total that the $15.8 million. It’s possible each still could. However this year’s crop of free agent starters is very deep. It’s already a buyers market and now you add the draft pick compensation. It further depresses the earning potential for these pitchers. Marco Estrada and Ian Kennedy strike me as the most likely to accept the qualifying offer. With John Lackey, I think it really depends on how much longer he wants to pitch, because if he wants a three-year deal, I think it’s out there for him somewhere.
