As we approach the midway point of the 2015 MLB season, the National League award winners are pretty easy to choose – Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, and Joc Pederson are pretty easy selections for the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year awards.
But over in the American League, things are more interesting. The rookie crop is a disaster. The best pitchers in the league either play for bad teams or have high ERAs, with the exceptions of Chris Archer and Dallas Keuchel. The MVP race? That’s a different story. There’s no one that has even begun to separate themselves from the pack, and you could make the case for a handful of players.
If you want to be stereotypical and choose the player with the best WAR, your MVP is Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis. But while Kipnis is having a great season, he plays for a mediocre team (which is still a huge deal to some voters) and doesn’t lead the league in any counting or rate stat. His year reminds me a bit of Robinson Cano’s prime years with the Yankees, when he was always one of the best players in baseball, but never actually won the MVP award.
Who’s leading the league in homers? Well, that’s Albert Pujols, but he’s not even the best first baseman in the AL this year – Prince Fielder leads the AL in batting average (.351) and hits (101).
ST. LOUIS, MO – MAY 17: Miguel Cabrera #24 of the Detroit Tigers has a laugh while batting against the St. Louis Cardinals in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium on May 17, 2015 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Who’s the best overall hitter? Well, that’s another first baseman – Miguel Cabrera, the AL MVP in 2012 and 2013. Cabrera is hitting .350/.454/.589, and he could win another Triple Crown. He’s tied for the league lead with 53 RBI, just a point behind Fielder in batting average, and is eight homers behind Pujols for the league lead. A hot, power-happy summer could push Cabrera to new heights.
What about the stupid “best player on the best team” rationale? Well, the Royals are the best team, but no one really stands out from the pack on their team. Lorenzo Cain leads the team in WAR, but Mike Moustakas is the team’s best hitter and Alex Gordon (who is also having a better offensive season than Cain) is the team’s most well-known player.
Is there a pitcher standing out from the pack like Justin Verlander in 2011 and Clayton Kershaw last year? Not really. Chris Sale is probably the AL’s best pitcher right now, but his White Sox are awful and Sale’s ERA is over 3.00. Chris Archer and Dallas Keuchel have both been dominant for contenders, but neither is having a season that screams “MVP!”…yet. David Price is a guy that could have a second half that brings him to that MVP level, as is Sonny Gray, especially if the A’s storm back into contention.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – JUNE 24: Third baseman Josh Donaldson #20 of the Toronto Blue Jays fields the single by Logan Forsythe #11 of the Tampa Bay Rays during the eighth inning of a game on June 24, 2015 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
There are three other players that check all of the boxes and are strong MVP candidates – Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and reigning winner Mike Trout. All three play for contenders (again, if that’s your thing), they’re all good (at the least) defenders at key positions, and they’re all hitting quite well this year. They all have at least 15 homers, all are in the top five in the AL in WAR, and all are in the top ten in the league in both wOBA.
Who am I going to give my midseason vote to? We’re still two weeks away from the reveal of TOC’s midseason awards, and I’m still on the fence about my AL MVP ballot. The five players I’ll probably be voting for are Cabrera, Donaldson, Kipnis, Machado, and Trout, but I have no idea what the order will look like. And those five names aren’t even set in stone – a big two weeks from Fielder could push him up the ballot, as could a solid end to the first half by Pujols.
The second half AL playoff race is going to be wild, something you could have surmised just by glancing at the standings. But the battles for the American League’s three primary awards are going to be completely insane, and they’re all up for grabs as we head into July.
