The merits of voting closers into HOF

Traditionalists wrinkle their nose, old-timers gripe and complain, and some writers refuse to vote for them, but the debate over whether closers belong in the Hall of Fame will continue.  This year, the ballot adds two names to the list who were solely closers (zero career starts between them), Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner. For the younger folks who don’t remember these guys, here’s a short primer.

Trevor Hoffman debuted for the Florida Marlins in 1993 and was traded by the Marlins to the Padres in a trade that included Gary Sheffield getting dealt to Florida. Utilizing a devastating changeup rather than a 100 MPH fastball, he spent the next 16 years in San Diego where he recorded 552 career saves, finished in the top-5 of Cy Young Award voting three times, and made 7 All-Star teams. He was signed as a free agent before the 2009 season by the Brewers where he spent two years and recorded 47 saves before he called it a career following the 2010 campaign.  His career totals are impressive: 601 saves (second all-time, behind Mariano Rivera), 1,133 SO in 1,089.1 IP, a 1.058 WHIP, 2.87 ERA, and a 89% save percentage.

Hoffman helped the Padres win the NL pennant for only the second time in franchise history in 1998, but in Game 3 of the World Series, he surrendered a three-run bomb to the Yankees’ Scott Brosius to give the Yankees the lead in the game and a 3-0 lead in the series (the Yankees finished the sweep the following night).  His only other appearance in the Postseason was in 2006 (Hoffman did appear in the 1996 NLDS for the Padres and gave up two earned runs in 1.2 innings), where he appeared twice in the NLDS against the Cardinals.

A nine-member panel, including HOF relievers and all-time saves leader (Hoffman included), now selects a reliever each season to win the Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year Award (Rivera’s name adorns the AL counterpart).

One of those panel members is the other closer who is making his first appearance on the HOF ballot this year, Billy Wagner.  Wagner was the complete opposite of Hoffman in his pitching style: Wagner brought it hard each and every pitch. A native of Marion, Virginia, Wagner debuted with the Astros in 1995.  By 1997 he was their full-time closer and in 1999 he finished fourth in Cy Young Award voting. He stayed with the Astros through 2003, when he was traded to the Phillies where he spent two seasons. He had detours as with the Mets, Red Sox, and Braves before he hung it up following the 2010 season.  Using his 100 MPH fastball, Wagner finished his career fifth all-time in saves with 422, 1,196 SO in 903 innings, a 2.31 ERA, a WHIP of 0.998, and seven All-Star selections.

While Hoffman’s postseason numbers were pedestrian, Wagner’s numbers in October are dreadful: in 14 games, he posted a 10.03 ERA, allowing 13 earned runs in 11.2 innings while also surrendering three home runs.

Wagner often alienated his teammates and famously recounted the story when Phillies’ teammate Pat Burrell called him “a rat” during a team meeting. Luckily for Wagner, Burrell doesn’t have a Hall of Fame vote.

There is no denying that the numbers are impressive for both players.  They were two of the top closers of the 1990s and 2000s and they were durable enough to pitch 50-70 games a year, each and every year.  The question remains, do players who are strictly closers belong in the Hall of Fame?

The only pitcher in the Hall of Fame who never started a game is Bruce Sutter, who was inducted in 2006.  Sutter saved 300 games in 12 seasons for the Cubs, Cardinals, and Braves. Indeed, all 661 games in which he appeared were in relief, but it took 16 years following his retirement for voters to give him the final nod.  The other pitchers who were primarily closers in the Hall of Fame only started a handful of games: Follie Ringers and Goose Gossage (37 starts each), and Hoyt Wilhelm started 52 games. In order to be kind to Hoffman and Wagner and to level the playing field, lets assume that all five guys were strictly closers for their entire career.

*Stats are in relief only

Instantly one is struck by the paradigm shift in the usage of closers. Even during Sutter’s career, closers were asked to pitch less and less until the ninth-inning guy was accepted as the norm. Hoffman pitched in 100 more games than Fingers pitched and is more than 400 innings behind him and he pitched roughly the same amount of games as Wilhelm but is nearly 800 innings behind Wilhelm! What also is striking is Wagner’s ERA+ – clearly when Wagner was at his best, he was lights-out. In general though, Hoffman and Wagner’s numbers jive pretty well with what the precedence is regarding Hall of Fame closers.

The shift in usage of closers obviously isn’t anything new and it certainly isn’t going anywhere.  Every Postseason is a reminder on how reliant teams are on their bullpen, particularly the back end guys. You think Casey Stengel would pull Whitey Ford in the ninth inning of a World Series game like Terry Collins did with Matt Harvey this year? Of course, the Mets still lost the game and the series, but the principle remains. Teams like the Royals are starting at the bullpen and then filling in the rest as they go along, and who can argue with the strategy? The results speak for themselves.

Considering the way bullpens are used in this era of baseball, the importance of the closer has been higher and therefore the appreciation for their craft has rose as well.  It took Sutter and Gossage years to be inducted into the Hall of Fame and now there are some that believe Hoffman has a chance to be inducted in his first year of eligibility.  That would indeed signify a paradigm shift.  As the closer role becomes more and more vital, the voters will inevitably look more kindly on the closer and the legitimacy of their Hall of Fame credentials.  If Hoffman and Wagner don’t get inducted on their first year on the ballot, Rivera will certainly be the first when his time on the ballot arrives.