As free agency begins to slow and the market dries up, one thing is becoming abundantly clear – teams that didn’t try to fill holes on offense early are pretty much screwed now.
Look at the list of the remaining free agent hitters. The only every day players left are Nori Aoki, Colby Rasmus, and if you’re feeling generous, Everth Cabrera. There are plenty of valuable players still out there, like Jonny Gomes, Scott Hairston, and Kelly Johnson, but they’re bench pieces. The market of guys that can play every day has dwindled to a scary-low level more than a month before pitchers and catchers report.
The trade market isn’t exactly bursting at the seams either following this weekend’s trade of both Yunel Escobar and Ben Zobrist to the Athletics. The only hitters that could still end up getting dealt would cost a bounty in terms of prospects (Chris Carter, Evan Gattis) or are owed a ridiculous amount of money (Andre Ethier, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Howard, Alex Rodriguez). Pick your poison.
However, we could see a couple of trades in recent weeks as teams begin to exchange salary figures with their players eligible for arbitration. Players like Dexter Fowler, Gerardo Parra, Josh Reddick, Drew Stubbs, or Mark Trumbo could find their way onto the trade market if their salary discussions get out of hand. Then, things could get very interesting – all of those players are limited in one way or another, but all are every day, legitimate major league options (coincidentally, all in the outfield).
The free agent drain didn’t really happen last year. Mark Reynolds signed in January, and while his year wasn’t great, 22 homers in 130 games is a solid return on $2 million. He was snapped up by the Cardinals a month ago. Several hitters that received qualifying offers hung around until February too. Nelson Cruz eventually taking $8 million over one year from the Orioles at the end of February. He was one of the best free agent bargains of the year, and received a much more substantial contract from the Mariners earlier this winter. Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales held out on signing until the season was well underway, and both received one-year deals for less than they were seeking. This winter, Morales signed a month ago and Drew agreed with the Yankees a week ago.
This year, all of the hitters that received qualifying offers have already signed. There’s no Cruz, Drew, or Morales waiting in the wings to rescue a team from a quiet offseason. If a contender still needs offense (looking at you, Giants), their three options are those limited free agents remaining, those players with obstacles to maneuver available in the trade market, or the arbitration cases that turn sour. And if last year was any indication, the trade market could be a tough sell – the only trades that took place in February and March centered around Alex Gonzalez, Jose Lobaton, and Andrew Romine. Those guys aren’t exactly major answers.
With a pair of major arms, Max Scherzer and James Shields, still on the free agent market, a lot can still happen. But Aoki, Cabrera, and Rasmus are really all that’s left in terms of potential needle moving hitters on the open market, and offensively-challenged teams are stuck between a rock and a hard place right now.
