As mentioned earlier this week and fairly consistently throughout the season, the American League Wild Card race remains the most competitive in all of baseball. Since August 17th, the Yankees, Rangers, Blue Jays, Twins, Orioles, and Angels have all held one spot or the other and while Toronto and New York have played well enough to separate themselves from the pack, all the other teams as well as the Indians and Rays are still in play for the final spot.
In general in the recent weeks, Texas has been on top, but they have made no move to cement their position. Early in August they lost series to both the Twins and Mariners and one later on to the Blue Jays as well. While they did sweep the Orioles in the final week, that has more to do with the Orioles’ struggles than the Rangers’ dominance. They currently sit precariously one game ahead of the Twins, 3.5 ahead of the Angels and Rays, and 6.5 against the Orioles.
On the Orioles, this may be the last time they are mentioned in conjunction with the race. While the Rangers have not completely crushed all competition, they are still playing well. Baltimore, however, is not. Since they were last in the lead for the Wild Card on August 17th, they have went 2-13 including a four game sweep by Minnesota and the aforementioned three gamer from Texas.
The Orioles largely have their starting rotation to blame for the recent struggles, as each has posted an ERA above 5.40 (Chris Tillman allowed 11 runs in 10.2 innings over his past two starts), but that shouldn’t be a huge surprise. In the second season of incredible pitching performances all around baseball, five of their six most used starters have posted an ERA above 4.30 for the season. Considering their next two series are on the road against New York and Toronto, it may be safe to pronounce the O’s just about dead.
BOSTON, MA – AUGUST 19: Corey Kluber #28 of the Cleveland Indians throws against the Boston Red Sox catches in the first inning on August 19, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
Continuing to move up from the bottom, to get back into near contention, the Indians have done what the Rays or Angels needed to do to regain the top spot. Winning six in a row to end August and nine of their last twelve, largely against the Yankees, Angels, and Blue Jays, the Indians have moved from 7.5 back on August 19th, behind eight teams to five back behind four on September 2nd.
Unlike the Orioles, the Indians have a solid rotation and an improving defense (13 defensive runs saved above average, the first time in years that has been a positive number) and if their offense can continue to perform, they may be able to shrink that gap some more. While it may be too little too late, 13 games against the below .500 Tigers and White Sox as well as seven against the Twins could at least move them into third in the Wild Card race.
On a more even keel are the Rays. Sitting at .500 (66-66) on the season, they are also 5-5 in their last ten and 12-12 in their last 24. Like the Indians, their pitching staff is fantastic and they have a defense worth watching Web Gems over, but the offense is questionable.
As with the Orioles, the Rays have to contend with their division leaders down the stretch with 12 games left with the Yankees and Blue Jays, series that could be enough to keep them down. There will be genuine reason for both teams to be playing at their best as winning the division is so much more valuable than a Wild Card, so it is hard to believe the Rays will be able to improve upon their record against those teams so far (which is also .500 at 13-13).
DETROIT, MI – AUGUST 27: Albert Pujols #5 of the Los Angeles Angels talks with teammate Mike Trout #27 in the dugout after the end of the sixth inning of the game against the Detroit Tigers on August 27, 2015 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
On the biggest downward slide are the Angels. While Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are incredible, any team depending on David Murphy as a clean up hitter is going to have problems, including the Indians earlier this season. They have dropped nine of their last twelve including a three game sweep to the Murphy-less Indians. Their only series win came against the Tigers, who have fell so far off in recent months that they are no longer included in this discussion.
While the Angels were one of the most active dealers at the deadline for small pieces, at the moment, it doesn’t look like enough. With a below average middle to bottom of the lineup and a pitching staff in a one month slump, there is a greater probability of the Indians or Rays coming from behind to surpass the Angels than the Angels catching Texas.
But while there are still many teams within shouting distance, enough to make them happy considering there is more than a month left in the season, the real race right now is between Texas and Minnesota. The Twins continue to surprise as they have all year and have yet to fall into the return to the bottom of the division that many predicted. Even better than they were at the beginning of the year, rookies Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano have impressed at the plate as Trevor May has on the mound.
This is a team that was truly undervalued at the beginning of the year and it can no longer be a surprise if they stay in the race until the end. They may not have enough to surpass the Rangers, but the combination of good enough pitching, good enough hitting and good enough defense is good enough for the second Wild Card race.
