A return to the defense first shortstop?

The position of shortstop was always dominated by great defenders who cared little about their offensive prowess from the beginning of baseball until the surge in power all around baseball in the mid-1990’s. This is exemplified by players like Ozzie Smith, who managed to play a 19 year, Hall of Fame career despite a .262/.337/.328 career batting line and 28 total home runs. In the 1990’s, this kind of play was generally considered unacceptable as offense became important in the middle of the diamond with shortstops like Barry Larkin, Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada and Derek Jeter.

Twenty years later, things seem to have been flipped the other direction. None of those mentioned above are still at shortstop (Rodriguez is the only one still around) and many teams have begun a move back towards glove work. Seeing the extreme drop in offense in 2014 and the success of the defense first teams like the Kansas City Royals, this isn’t all that surprising. Ten different teams this season are changing starting shortstops going into 2015 and most of them are moving towards a more error-free infielder.

The list to the right shows all those teams looking to improve their defense at short in 2015 in order of the difference (WAR numbers are from 2014 and are extrapolated to a full 162 game season). While the teams with the biggest changes made those because of situations beyond their control (retirements and free agency), their replacements do speak volumes.

In Cleveland, the Indians have been trading defense for offense at this position ever since the departure of Omar Vizquel in 2004. Jhonny Peralta and Asdrubal Cabrera were both poor defenders, but there has been a complete reversal with Jose Ramirez starting in 2015 and top prospect Francisco Lindor expected to start very soon. While the team will likely lose a little bit of offense early on, as can be seen, the change is worth a net of more than three wins per season just because of the improved defense.

While there are a few teams who will be coming into the season with worse defensive shortstops (chart to come), the removal of Hanley Ramirez and Derek Jeter from the group of players called shortstops goes a long way to making the position better all around the league. Despite being a 14 time All-Star, the young, offensively weak Didi Gregorius could still be worth at least two more wins than the 20 year veteran at the end of his career. While the Yankees would never have pushed Jeter out, they may be much better off without him.

Of the others who improved their defense at short, two teams, the Dodgers and Rays, did so by adding a good offensive shortstop who wasn’t quite as bad as the guy leaving. Cabrera in particular is a stand out here as his leaving is what made the Indians better. For the Tigers, Jose Iglesius was brought in during 2013, but missed all of 2014 due to injury. He is a better all around player than Andrew Romine, who is more of a utility man than full time starter. Finally, the Twins phenom Danny Santana has supplanted the normally part time player Eduardo Escobar.

It would be unfair, of course, to not mention those four teams that are getting worse defensively. Here, Jimmy Rollins appears again as, while he will be improving the Dodgers infield, his loss will hurt the Phillies in every way possible. The Phillies don’t expect to contend this year, so losing more than seven wins from a single position isn’t their biggest problem.

Jed Lowrie is the final shortstop involved in multiple places as he is being replaced in Oakland by a worse defender in Marcus Semien (whose numbers are more from playing third and second than shortstop) and is replacing a better defender in Marwin Gonzalez. In both cases, expected offensive improvement was the reason for the change.

Of the top ten prospects according to MLB.com, four are there largely because of their defensive skills [Francisco Lindor (CLE), J.P. Crawford (PHI), Nick Gordon (MIN) and Raul Mondesi, Jr. (KC)] being  worth a spot on the team with or without any offensive prowess. Outside of Addison Russell (CHC) and Corey Seager (LAD), there seems to be no power threats among the top ten minor league shortstops and it looks like there will be no real replacements for Rodriguez, Tejada and the rest as they fade away.

Overall, considering all these changes, expect shortstop production to be up in the field and down at the plate in 2015 (the chart at right compares the total of all the changes listed above). In general, this may be part of a general change in baseball towards athleticism instead of brute strength with the most important defensive positions (shortstop, second base and the outfield) transitioning first or it could be a much smaller trend as teams take advantage of cheaper players (like Ramirez, Gregorius, Semien and Galvis) irrelevant of talent. Which it is will be determined based on whether other teams continue to value defense over offense, but if it does mean a return of the defense first shortstop, we could all be in for some much more exciting baseball.