Reports of the Tigers’ demise were greatly exaggerated

Maybe it was their failure in the postseason against Baltimore last October (they lost seven of their last nine play off games). Maybe it was worries about their injuries and old age. Maybe it was boredom, refusing to pick the same team as always to win it all, but for some reason the sports writers of American (including those for this site) had essentially pronounced the Detroit Tigers to be dead before the season even started. With trendy picks of the Indians, Royals and even White Sox to win the division and even lose the World Series to the Nationals, there was little talk about the monster mashers in the Motor City. They seem to have taken issue with that.

A week into the season, the Tigers have yet to lose a game. While the first series against the Twins wasn’t taken for much, their more recent sweep of the Cleveland Indians should mean a lot more. More than just a simple beating, the Tigers have outscored their opponents 47-16 (the Twins scored just one run in three games) featuring both an incomparable lineup and a dominant starting rotation.

Starting with that rotation, David Price (14 IP), Shane Greene (8 IP) and Anibal Sanchez (6.2 IP) have yet to give up a run this year, all carry a WHIP below 0.85 and a batting average against below .180 (take Price out and that number drops to below .150). Even without Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Tigers appear to be fine as their offense has been more than able to out pound the mistakes by Alfredo Simon (3 ER in 5.1 IP) and Kyle Lobstein (3 ER in 5 IP). While it is obviously early to judge anyone and all these players will move towards the league average in their coming starts, the Tigers look plenty deep in their pitching staff to work out another winning season.

The weakest part of the Tigers team remains their bullpen as was expected before the season began. Al Albuquerque, Ian Krol and Joakim Soria all struggled against the Indians while two other pitchers, Joba Chamberlain and Joe Nathan, have pitched so little that it is impossible to get a real reading off them.

While bullpen irregularity may effect the team some, it is unlikely to bother the Tigers as much as previously predicted, mostly because they have the most fearsome lineup in Major League Baseball. At the moment, the Tigers currently house the number three, five, seven and eight hitters by average in all of baseball, have four hitters with at least four RBI and seven with at least four runs scored. Of their starting nine, only J.D. Martinez (who has three home runs already), Victor Martinez and Nick Castellanos are hitting below .300. Miguel Cabrera and Jose Iglasius are both batting above .520. Removing Cabrera’s initial 0/4 on Opening Day brings his average to .619 over the past five games.

In the finale Sunday, the Terry Francona finally decided to just give up and intentionally walk Cabrera with a runner on base and, while it worked that one time, it is not a strategy to be considered often. With the Martinez brothers (not actually brothers) following him in the lineup, putting anyone on base ever against Detroit is almost always going to be a mistake. There is no lineup more complete or more powerful in baseball right now than the team that was counted out by many before the year started.

For the opposition, however, there still is hope. In addition to the poor bullpen, the Tigers have a generally terrible defense, especially in the outfield (Yeonis Cespedes is vastly overrated because his strong arm can make up for his poor routes and limited range), first base and on the pitchers mound. Unlike the White Sox and Royals, the Tigers will likely give up plenty of free base runners this year, which should make the starters work harder, getting teams into the weak bullpen even earlier.

In addition, this is the best the Tigers lineup is capable of being. While their best is enough (it has been the biggest part of their 6-0 start), it is not likely that they will finish the year with four players hitting above .300 let alone .400 with two above .500. The chart above shows the rate stats for their starting lineup and as easy to be seen, almost every batter is well above the league average BABIP of about .300. Especially due for a drop are Jose Iglesius, Anthony Gose and Ian Kinsler who are about the luckiest players on the planet right now. In addition, it is easy to see that Castellanos and J.D. Martinez are probably better than they are hitting right now.

As always the truth lies somewhere in the middle. The Tigers are not ready to retire to the pasture quite yet, but they are also not unbeatable. One prediction that looks correct to this point is that the American League Central will be one of baseball’s most entertaining divisions this year as the White Sox, Indians and the undefeated Royals all look to give the Tigers a run for their Central Division crown.