If you thought the Atlanta Braves would have an uneventful winter following last week’s trade of shortstop Andrelton Simmons to the Angels, think again. While the Braves still look to improve their bullpen and add to their growing horde of young pitching, they could also make moves that further alienate the franchise’s fanbase.
According to a report from Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the Braves have shopped first baseman Freddie Freeman, one of the two remaining players signed to contract extensions by former GM Frank Wren before the 2014 season.
Officials from three different clubs told me that the Braves have indeed shopped first baseman Freddie Freeman, with one saying such a possibility was “the talk of the (Arizona) Fall League” among scouts about 10 days ago.
Freeman signed an eight-year, $135 million extension with the Braves in February of 2014. He’s still owed roughly $120 million over the final six years of the deal, and his salary will spike from $12 million in 2016 to $20.5 million in 2017 – the first season of Atlanta’s new ballpark in Cobb County.
The 26-year old Freeman hit .276/.370/.471 in 2015 with 18 homers over 118 games, missing a decent chunk of the year due to various ailments, including an oblique strain and a wrist injury that seeming hampered him over the season’s final three months. But despite those issues, he was still Atlanta’s best hitter in 2015, leading the team in homers, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage while ranking third in batting average.
BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! From later in Rosenthal’s article, he also reveals that the Braves are also looking to trade anyone with a significant contract on the books.
The Braves, another official says, are “shopping everyone owed money” – a group that would include right-hander Julio Teheran, right fielder Nick Markakis and center fielder Cameron Maybin, among others.
I wonder if that group would include Erick Aybar, acquired from the Angels in the Simmons deal and owed $8.75 million in 2016, and/or Hector Olivera, acquired this summer from the Dodgers in the Alex Wood trade and owed roughly $32 million through 2020.
Teheran’s value arguably has never been lower. He’ll turn just 25 in January, and is owed just shy of $30 million through the 2019 season. He made 33 starts in 2015, but his 4.04 ERA was more than a run higher than his 2014 mark. His strikeout rate also dropped to a career-worst 20.3%, while his walk rate spiked to (again) a career-worst 8.7%. The 27 homers allowed by Teheran also marked the highest total of his career.
What’s there to be gained by trading him now, aside from saving money? If Teheran blows his elbow out, Atlanta is obviously going to be in a dire place in regards to his contract, but isn’t that a risk you take with any pitcher?
Atlanta potentially trading Markakis is weird, considering they just signed him last offseason with the expressed purpose of having him around when they were planning on contending in 2017. Markakis is owed around $31 million over the next three years, and is coming off a season in which he hit .296/.370/.376, homering only three times but leading the team in average and tying Freeman for the team lead in OBP.
But why sign the guy to a four-year deal a year ago, state he’s going to be part of the core helping the team contend in the future, and then go and shop him the next winter? At least Markakis didn’t receive a qualifying offer last year and caused the Braves to lose a pick for signing him…
As for Maybin, trading him actually makes sense, and is something that Braves should have done over the summer. Maybin is making $8 million in 2016, and is coming off a season in which he hit .267/.327/.370 with ten homers and 23 steals in 141 games. In 2013 and 2014, Maybin played in a combined total of 109 games, homering twice and stealing eight bases. But the 28-year old closed out the year on a down note, hitting .246/.264/.261 with just one extra base hit (a double), two walks, and 20 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances.
Also, trading players like Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher should be academic for Atlanta at this point – but finding suitors will be tough. Neither player has much left in the tank, and are owed quite a bit more money than they’re worth. The Braves are on the hook for $19 million in 2016 to the two players, with the Indians covering the remaining $10 million on the pair’s contracts.
A year ago, when the Braves started their Rebuild They Didn’t Call A Rebuild, the plan was muddled…but there at least was a plan. That plan was “hoard plenty of young pitching, hopefully trade some of that young pitching for young offense, and use that young offense to supplement the core”.
Right now, I’m not sure there *is* a core with the Braves. The only player I feel confident saying will be a Brave on Opening Day is Pierzynski, if only because he was re-signed a week ago. Everyone else could conceivably be up for grabs, possibly including starting pitcher Shelby Miller, heading into his first year of arbitration this winter.
ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 02: Hector Olivera #28 of the Atlanta Braves hits a two-RBI single in the third inning against the Miami Marlins at Turner Field on September 2, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the “trade young pitching for young hitting” strategy seemed to take a bit of a hit this season when the Braves engaged the Dodgers in a complicated three-way trade that also involved the Marlins. Atlanta lost 24-year old Alex Wood and 21-year old Jose Peraza in the deal, along with Bronson Arroyo’s contract and relievers Luis Avilan and Jim Johnson, and netted…20-year old third baseman turned outfielder Hector Olivera, reliever Paco Rodriguez, and a draft pick.
Hey, maybe after the Braves trade Freeman, they’ll change Olivera’s position again and plant him at first base. I don’t know how well that strategy will work going forward considering they only got two pitching prospects and a one-year stopgap at shortstop for Simmons, the best defensive player in baseball.
This is actually a bit of a scary situation for the Braves and their fans – the team hasn’t had a top ten payroll in baseball since 2005. On Opening Day of 2015, their payroll of $97 million was 23rd in the league…and that was before the Braves started playing a twisted shell game involving taking on expiring contracts along with prospects.
They only have $76 million committed to 2016 and $51 million committed to 2017, with only four first-time arbitration eligible players this winter and one next winter. And they’re looking to….shed payroll? In order to spend in free agency (which is never really a great idea) or take on future obligations in trades?
It doesn’t make sense. And when things don’t make sense with a franchise that just turned over the majority of its front office a year ago, there are larger, more sinister forces at work – and that’s not a good thing.
