The Boston Red Sox made a huge move yesterday, inking ace starting pitcher David Price to a mammoth seven-year, $217 million deal. The contract will pay Price at least $30 million per season annually as the deal makes him the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history. With the move, the Red Sox have dropped a serious amount of cash for the second straight offseason, factoring in the acquisition of closer Craig Kimbrel. With a surplus of starters, it seems the Sox will try to trade one of them in order to recoup the loss of prospects from the Kimbrel deal.
The Red Sox will now likely trade one of their starting pitchers and try to recoup prospects lost on the Kimbrel deal.
— Nick Cafardo (@nickcafardo) December 1, 2015
Boston’s current rotation, as of now, would likely feature Price, Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Joe Kelly and/or Eduardo Rodriguez.
Buchholz and Porcello are both proven veteran pitchers who could entice other teams.
Buchholz is coming off an injury-plagued season where he only made 18 starts after a strained right elbow caused him to miss mid-July onwards. He did post impressive numbers when he was healthy, going 7-7 with a 1.21 WHIP and a 3.26 ERA, but teams may be afraid to take a chance on him since he’s only made 62 starts over the last three seasons. He’s due to make $13 million in 2016, and has a team option for $13.5 million in 2017. The right-hander is affordable, but it’s a risk to assume he can stay healthy over a full season.
Porcello is coming off a down year, and his four-year, $82.5 million extension takes effect in 2016. The 26-year-old had a 9-15 record with a 4.92 ERA, although his 4.13 FIP suggested he wasn’t getting hit as hard as his numbers indicated. The right-hander doesn’t walk a ton of batters, but gives up a lot of hits. He’s also only reached 200+ innings once in his career. It’s hard to fathom a team willing to take on his enormous contract, unless they’re given salary relief. Porcello has youth on his side, but following a down year, it would be hard for the Red Sox to maximize his value.
Wade Miley could be an intruiging option for teams look to add a middle of the rotation starter. He was solid in his first season in Boston, with an 11-11 record, a 4.46 ERA (3.81 FIP) while just missing out on pitching 200+ innings for the third consecutive season. The lefty’s is making just over $6 million in 2016, $8.9 million in 2017 and has a team option worth $12 million in 2018. He’s got a good chance to bring in decent value since he’s a lefty, has control and is an established innings eater.
The other two trade candidates are both pitchers the Red Sox probably want to keep.
The Red Sox traded Andrew Miller to the Orioles to acquire Eduardo Rodriguez, and the 22-year-old is proving he was worth the price. The lefty, who can rev his fastball up to 98 MPH, didn’t look out of place with the Red Sox posting a 10-6 record with a 3.85 ERA. He only got better as the season went on. The same can be said for 27-year-old Joe Kelly, who struggled immensely with control to start the season, only to pitch like an ace as the season closed down. Between August and September, Kelly reeled off eight straight wins, lowering his ERA by more than a full run while hitting triple digits on the radar gun. Kelly had a bad year as a whole, but his final nine starts were extremely promising. Rodriguez is making near the league minimum, and Kelly is projected to earn just over $3 million in his first year of arbitration, so unless the Sox get blown away, I’d be surprised if they didn’t keep the duo.
If the Red Sox really want to restock prospects, trading Rodriguez and Kelly would probably give them the biggest return. Buchholz is damaged goods, and Porcello makes far too much money. If I was a betting man I’d say Miley is the most likely to go given his track record and relative affordability. He may not get the same return as Kimbrel, but it would be a start.
