The Red Sox were big players in free agency last year, signing both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. They were definitely trying to build a playoff contender but they didn’t do much in terms of improving their rotation. Sure they signed Rick Porcello and traded for Wade Miley, but they didn’t go after the big free agent ace that most assumed they needed. After the rotation they built finished in the bottom third of baseball, most assumed they’d make a play for an ace this time around. Instead the first move they made was acquiring a closer.
Over the weekend the Red Sox sent, a huge package of four prospects to the Padres for elite closer Craig Kimbrel. It was shocking not only because the acquisition cost was dear, but because it didn’t really seem to make a lot of sense on the surface. Surely that package of prospects was notable, as the one they departed with could have gotten them the frontline starter they so badly needed. Or…maybe not.
In an interview after the Kimbrel trade was made official new Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski had this to say,
These are only guesses at this time, but going into the wintertime and then through conversations we had with clubs over the last month, my thought process is that most likely any acquisition we’d make in starting pitching would first happen as far as the free agency field is concerned
One could infer from that quote the Red Sox felt they were not going to be able to get the starter they needed via the trade route. Furthermore, it can be inferred the Red Sox felt their chances were better going into free agency to find the starter they want. This could simply be an explanation for why they felt it made more sense to get the reliever they needed through a trade. However, I wonder if perhaps they won’t go in another direction altogether.
I’ll believe Zack Greinke signs with a team other than the Dodgers when I see it. I also have a hard time believing the Cubs will be outbid for the services of David Price. These are the top two pitchers on the market and while there are other quality options, I think the next two are more than a tier below Greinke and Price.
Jordan Zimmermann is a very good pitcher. But he’s more of a good mid-rotation innings eater than a frontline starter. Johnny Cueto might be frontline caliber, but I have my concerns. He’s never had a high strikeout rate – 19.9 K% for his career which is actually below league average – and his FIP has always been much higher than his ERA – career 3.30 ERA vs a 3.82 FIP. He’s also spent his entire career playing in front of very good defensive teams. If you take that away, you might take away some of his magic.
So I’m not convinced that’s the route the Red Sox want to go. If that is the direction they want to go, they certainly have the money to do it. And obviously it would be an improvement to add any one of those pitchers to their rotation. But I wonder if they might not be looking to take a page from the Royals’ book. Adding Craig Kimbrel gets the Red Sox one step closer to having a Royals-like shutdown bullpen.
In addition to Kimbrel, Boston has two highly effective late inning relievers. Incumbent and now unseated closer Koji Uehara is next in line. He doesn’t have the typical velocity you’d expect from a shutdown reliever but it doesn’t matter. His strikeout rate still reaches elite levels – 30.6 K% career, 29.4 K% in 2015. There is concern about his health, as he only threw 40 innings due to a wrist injury.
Junichi Tazawa is a quality reliever in his own right. Disregard his 4.41 ERA from 2015. His uncharacteristically high .349 BABIP and .279 BAA suggest he might have been getting unlucky in 2015. His 3.05 FIP remained strong as did his velocity and there were no other obvious signs of decline. I would expect a bounce back season in 2016.
It’s a fine collection of relievers, but a DL stint for Uehara or more poor results from Tazawa could derail those high leverage innings. I propose the Red Sox go one better and sign top free agent reliever Darren O’Day. The market for relievers is garbage, which I think is why we’re seeing so much action in that trade area. Joaquin Benoit and Craig Kimbrel have already been moved. Peter Gammons recently tweeted his belief that Aroldis Chapman could be the next to go. O’Day reportedly already has offers in hand already. The free agent market drops off noticeably after O’Day and so the Red Sox should go hard after him.
I bet right now you’re thinking this does nothing to solve their rotation woes – yes and no. It doesn’t directly improve the rotation. But the Royals have shown us it can make a huge impact on win potential. I mentioned above the Red Sox had one of the worst rotations in baseball with a 4.39 ERA. The Royals rotation was good for a 4.34 ERA – and that’s with half a season of Johnny Cueto, let’s not forget.
The Royals bullpen on the other hand was the second best in baseball with a 2.72 ERA. The Red Sox were 26th with a 4.24 ERA. If the Red Sox don’t think they can get Price or Greinke, they might be better off doubling down on their bullpen instead of getting a quality mid-rotation starter. The Royals provide a template and an example of how this can succeed. In order do this properly, they really need to get O’Day. Hell, the Yankees did a similar thing last year by signing Andrew Miller to bolster their bullpen and ignored their rotation deficiencies. Miller and Dellin Betances helped the Yankees host the AL Wild Card game.
This isn’t an argument that getting Darren O’Day improves the Red Sox more than getting Zimmerman or Cueto. Just an argument it could be a significant improvement in it’s own right. The Red Sox have deep pockets so if they really wanted to, I’m sure they could do both. But if they think they can benefit enough by following the Royals example it could be $100 million (or more) cheaper to go after Darren O’Day instead of Zimmermann or Cueto. And let’s not forget they’re looking to get a full season from their top pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez. That could be all the improvement to the rotation they need.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
