Despite finishing the season just a single win away from .500 and being only two years away from a Wild Card victory, the Rays have been rumored to be interested in selling off some pieces. This isn’t a simple strategy of trying to get the most out of players who are only signed on for one more season, instead, the players rumored include relievers Jake McGee and Brad Boxburger, starters Matt Moore and Drew Smyly, and first baseman James Loney.
While some of this talk is looking to make room for prospects coming up, in whole, a massive sell off doesn’t make much sense. In general, the Rays have a solid team that is mostly returning next season (they have already replaced shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera with Brad Miller) and mostly young. Their greatest strength lies in that pitching staff that they are potentially looking at selling from.
Trading Nate Karns has already weakened this rotation, but it still features a yearly Cy Young candidate in Chris Archer as well as solid young starters in Jake Odorizzi and Erasmo Ramirez to go along with Moore and Smyly. While he didn’t pitch much in 2015 due to injury, Smyly could be the best of the bunch. He is arbitration eligible now, so he will see a pay increase in 2016, but he is still a valuable starter and there was a reason he was the primary piece in the David Price trade to Detroit. Obviously it would depend on the return, but in general, turning a strength (6th best rotation in baseball based on ERA) into a weakness is always risky.
There is a reason the saying “you can never have enough pitching” exists and that reason exists in ligament form. There’s no need for any team to have more than five top starters, but having up to five is a very good idea if possible. It’s hard to believe the Rays would be able to get equal return for Smyly, who spent most of 2014 on the DL or for Moore, who played poorly in his limited action.
As for the bullpen, moving two of the most coveted relievers in the trade pool wouldn’t be the most surprising reliever move in the AL East during the past week. The last place Red Sox, who are saddled with aging, high priced players, seem to be destined for at least another year or two near the bottom of the East, yet they just made the move to drop a couple of their top prospects on Craig Kimbrel, who can fairly be called one of the top three closers in baseball.
In general, back-end relievers should be the last pieces added to a near contending ball club as they are expensive and vary so much from year to year. That being said, moving Boxberger in particular could be a smart move for Tampa. His league high 41 saves last year should be enough to blind some of the less metric friendly teams, who will focus more on his 4.26 FIP and 4.6% walk rate. This is not to say Boxberger isn’t a good closer, he obviously was great in each of the past two seasons, but going along with that, he is likely at his greatest value ever.
Boxberger isn’t a free agent until 2020, so if the Rays feel like he will improve through his prime (something that is very possible), they could keep him around for the duration, but if there is a chance to bring in a big haul, particularly offensively, they should jump at it.
The other reliever mentioned, Jake McGee, is worth both less (to those who highly value saves) and more than Boxberger. Again, if the Royals winning the World Series has really changed the valuation of relief pitchers to the extreme it seems it may have, the Rays could take advantage of their near MLB ready prospects and move McGee for a more regular player. The fact that McGee is already arbitration eligible means that any rookie or minor league invite would be cheaper, so if they believe they can get near equal performance from a younger player, trying to move him could make sense.
The Rays shouldn’t be disheartened by their fourth place finish and shouldn’t be even thinking about starting over. Archer and Evan Longoria are signed through 2020 and almost the entire roster is under team control through 2019. Taking advantage of a market inefficiency is one thing, but decimating their starting rotation any further could turn them from a favorite for at least a Wild Card in 2016 to another season looking up at the Yankees and Orioles.
