Last season was Josh Harrison’s fourth season in the majors though just his first full season. It was also the best season of his entire career at any level. In 550 plate appearances he hit 315/347/490 (.365 wOBA, 137 wRC+) with 13 home runs and 18 stolen bases. He also played 3B, 2B, SS, LF, and RF. Today the Pirates rewarded Harrison with a 4 year extension worth $27.3 million. The contract includes 2 options that could increase the total value to $50 million. Last season he was very valuable to the Pirates and reminiscent of Ben Zobrist, but did they make a mistake here?
Prior to 2014 in parts of three seasons (575 PA) he hit 250/282/367 (283 wOBA, 78 wRC+) with 7 home runs and 13 stolen bases. I could see it being reasonable to chalk that up to playing time issues. He was a bench player for those 3 years and it can be a hard role to adjust to. It wouldn’t be that surprising to see a player struggle there but “breakthrough” when given a full time role. I have other concerns though.
For one thing, Josh Harrison’s BABIP last year was .353. That’s seems to be unsustainable which would suggest he’s due for some regression toward the mean. If that’s all it was though, I’d say he could still be very effective. However his plate discipline numbers are sketchy as well.
His 13.3% swinging strike rate was his highest ever and 2.7% worse than league average. His 75% first-strike rate was by far a career worst and 15% worse than league average. His 75% contact rate was 6% below his career low. He appeared to by hyper-aggressive at the plate compare to previous seasons. He swung at 61.5% of pitches (8% higher than his previous career high). His O-swing% (swings at pitches outside the zone) was 50% in 2014. That’s really high for anyone (league average is 31.6%) but it was 12% higher than any other season for Harrison. His Z-swing% (swings at pitches inside the zone) was a whopping 80% (lg avg is 63.1%).
Combine an unsustainable BABIP, a hyper-aggressive plate approach, and an increase in swinging strike rate and I’d say you have a recipe for an unrepeatable career year. While I’d suggest Harrison won’t be able to repeat a 5 win season, I wouldn’t say the deal is bad for the Pirates.
They only guaranteed Harrison 4 years after which they can choose to bring him back or not. The AAV of those 4 years is only $6.825 MM. That’s basically paying Harrison to be worth just under 1 win. The extension acutally begins this year where he’ll make $2.8 million. Then he’ll make $5MM, $7.5MM, and $10MM. The two options are worth $10.5MM ($1MM buyout) and $11 MM ($500K buyout). Even if he falls hard, he still has that positional flexibility that could make him a valuable super utility player.
It’s hard to see this as anything but a solid deal for both sides. Josh Harrison gets financial security. The Pirates lock in a player that comes with a lot of risk but might be really good, and get to pay him as if he’s just a low end regular or a high end bench player.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
