First, the Braves and Angels shocked us with the Andrelton Simmons trade. Then the Red Sox shook the world with their acquisition of Craig Kimbrel. On Saturday, the Phillies swooped in to steal the headlines by trading for Jeremy Hellickson. Okay, so this trade isn’t nearly as big as the others but it’s reasonably interesting.
Dbacks have traded Jeremy Hellickson to the Phillies for minor leaguer Sam McWilliams.
— Nick Piecoro (@nickpiecoro) November 14, 2015
Hellickson was at one time a highly regarded pitching prospect with the Rays. He even put in a couple of pretty good seasons with the major league team if you’re just looking at ERA — 2.95 in 2011 and 3.10 in 2012. Unfortunately in the three seasons that would follow, he came nowhere near replicating that success — 5.17 ERA, 4.52 ERA, and 4.62 ERA, respectively. At this point, Hellickson has proven to be little more than a back-end starter.
But the Phillies don’t necessarily need him to be good. They just need him to eat some innings. They’re currently rebuilding right now, so their team record is unimportant. One could actually make a strong argument that it’s best to finish with as poor a record as possible. Good draft position is more important than a good record when you’re rebuilding.
However, rebuilding isn’t just about tanking for draft picks. The Cubs and Astros have shown it’s a smart move to find assets which can be traded mid-season for prospects. The most notorious example is the Scott Feldman trade two years ago. The Cubs packaged him with back-up catcher Steve Clevenger for now-ace Jake Arrieta and reliever Pedro Strop. Obviously not every trade is going to work out so well, but it’s the kind of chance worth taking.
The problem is that Hellickson has shown little evidence of improving to the point where the Phillies will be able to trade him for something notable. However, there is one glimmer of hope in this respect. Hellickson has shown a slight improvement in his strikeout rate (K%) and swinging strike rate (SwStr%) in recent seasons.
| Season | K% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 15.1% | 9.7% |
| 2012 | 16.7% | 9.0% |
| 2013 | 18.3% | 9.7% |
| 2014 | 19.2% | 10.0% |
| 2015 | 19.0% | 10.3% |
Hellickson has shown a better ability to strike batters out in the last two seasons. His swinging strike rate is now above average, if only slightly — league average in 2015 was 9.3%. If he can improve on this some more, Hellickson could see an overall improvement in his production. His walk rate has always been good, so an increase in strikeout rate could be the key to unlocking a next level for him.
Unfortunately, the Phillies’ defense and ballpark will do him no favors. ESPN ranks Citizens Bank Park at 6th for most home runs allowed. That’s two years running and in 2013, it was the second-highest. In addition to that, the Phillies ranked dead last in Defensive Runs Saved with a putrid -92. The next worst was -60, so it wasn’t even close. Hellickson is a fly ball pitcher and the Phillies outfield ranked 20th in DRS.
If Hellickson is going to improve to the point where he can be traded for something interesting, he’ll have to rely mostly on himself to get there. That is, unless the Phillies can markedly improve the defense they put behind him. If they do want to come out ahead on a trade, they’ll have to do better than what they gave up to get him.
In exchange for Hellickson, the Phillies sent minor league pitcher Sam McWilliams to the Diamondbacks. McWilliams is a towering 6-foot-7 right-hander taken in the 8th round of the 2014 draft. He has spent the last two seasons in the Phillies’ rookie leagues without much fanfare, but did show improvement statistically this year with a 3.27 ERA in 33 innings from seven starts. His 15.7% strikeout rate leaves much to be desired, though.
MLB Pipeline rated McWilliams as the Phillies 27th-best prospect. They gave his fastball a 60 grade (plus) and his changeup a 50 (average). But both his curveball and command were rated as below average. At 20 years old, he still has plenty of time to work on things. The Diamondbacks will certainly continue developing him as a starter. But with a plus fastball and at least average changeup, his stuff could play up in relief.
Dbacks plan to add starters, plus have some young, back-of-rotation depth, probably weren’t keen on spending $6M-plus on Hellickson.
— Nick Piecoro (@nickpiecoro) November 14, 2015
In addition to adding a pitching prospect, the Diamondbacks get some salary relief. Hellickson was projected to earn $6.6 million in his final year of arbitration. It’s an inconsequential amount for the Phillies, but the Diamondbacks say they want to compete this year. That money could be better spent elsewhere and rumors are they’re interested in Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda.
The prospect the Phillies parted with was not too much to give up for a player like Hellickson, but it does beg the question: Why didn’t Philadelphia just go out and sign a back-end starter in free agency? Maybe they really do believe Hellickson can reach a new level. The best-case scenario sees his strikeout rate jump and a mid-season trade becomes a reality. I suppose that’s a fine gamble and a potential relief prospect doesn’t seem too costly.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
