They tell you to never bet on sports. Well, I think they (whoever they is) would agree that betting on the Phillies to be bad this year was about as a sure thing as you are going to get. We’re fifty-six games into the 2015 season, and the Phillies possess a record of 21-33 and are 8.5 games back in the National League East. What is really sad is that the record isn’t reflective of how bad the team actually has been this year. Before the recent swoon, the Phils had strung together a winning streak of six games and had even pulled themselves out of the cellar into fourth place. However, struggles in all facets of the game propelled the Phillies back to their home in last place.
How bad has it been? Offensively, the Phillies are second to last in the league in team batting average at .236 and have a league low of 30 homers as a team. This is a team that from 2006-2009 average 216 home runs a team per year. For most teams, comparing the team from almost ten years ago to the team currently would be a pointless activity since the turnover for teams over ten years makes those comparison moot. Well, not this team, and that is why they are in the position they find themselves in. Three of the position players (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Carlos Ruiz), who were in the late 20’s when they won the World Series in 2008, are still the starters in their respective positions. That is fine if they remained healthy and productive during each of the proceeding years; however that is not the case so the face that they are still playing regularly is asinine.
The Phillies general manager, Ruben Amaro Jr., has found it more important to keep the sentimental players around rather than trade them at their peak value for young players. Amaro, who is nearing J.D. Drew as far as fan hatred, has continually failed to do the right thing and he has single-handily destroyed what was once a desired destination for players throughout the league. “Laughing stock” is now the common adjective assigned to the Phillies and this season is only one-third complete.
So what can the Phillies do at this point? Is there any way that this rebuild does not need to take as long as it took for Sepp Blatter from resigning after being re-elected? Okay, well it is going to take longer than that, but how long is that?
First of all, do the Phillies even have pieces that teams desire? Yes. One. His name is Cole Hamels and there a multitude of teams who could use an extra starter at this time of the season. Hamels is ace material and likely is worth close to, if not all, what Amaro is trying to get for him. The problem is teams aren’t willing to give up their Joey Gallo and Kris Bryant equivalent prospects and honestly, Hamels isn’t that good. But he is still by far, the best the Phillies have to offer teams and it just depends on how much teams are willing to give up for him.
The Cubs and Red Sox have been heard about the most regarding Hamels, but it does not sound like the Red Sox are willing to let go of Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart, the names that the Phillies most covet. The Dodgers and Cardinals also would have need for the left-hander. The Phillies have made it known that they would be open to taking on more of Hamels salary (who is owed $70 million over the next three years) if that helps to grease the wheels. But the main goal for the Phillies is prospects. The Phillies are not hurting for money so finances will probably not be a deal breaker.
Closer Jonathan Papelbon could also be attractive to teams needing bullpen help. Papelbon is still a very good pitcher and his .863 WHIP and 1.23 ERA reflects that. Half of the Phillies wins have ended in Pap getting the save. While his ability to pitch does not hurt his trade value, his personality might. Rumors were that the Marlins would be interested but based on the where the team is going in the standings, it’s doubtful that they will be buyers come the trade deadline. Papelbon has pretty clear that he wants to be traded before the end of the season and who can blame him? This is a man built for the big stage and obviously that stage won’t be appearing in Philly anytime soon.
Starter Aaron Harang has been refreshingly good this year and has been the team’s best pitcher all season. He boasts a 2.02 ERA and has consistently pitched deep into ball games. Any of the teams that need pitching could use Harang and he would clearly bring a smaller asking price than Hamels. But if we are looking at the Phillies rebuilding: the take for Harang won’t likely accelerate that process exceptionally well.
Howard has shown enough flashes that an American League team might bite on him to capitalize on his postseason experience and his power. But again, the issue becomes how much of his contract are the Phillies willing to pay. Following the injury to Matt Adams, the Cardinals entered the Howard conversation and from a purely sentimental stand point the move makes sense. Howard grew up in St. Louis and his numbers in Busch Stadium are insane (11 HR, 39 RBI, 1.111 OPS and .341 average). However, based on how well the Cardinals front office is run, it’s likely the Phillies would be happy with the haul Howard would get even if they helped out on his salary.
That ladies and gentlemen are all the viable trade targets that the Phillies have to offer. All the other possibilities are too old and broken down (Utley and Ruiz), just terrible at baseball (Ben Revere, who is apparently coveted by the Angels for whatever reason), or too young to let go (Maikel Franco and Ken Giles). Maybe the Phillies aren’t as far away as it seems from being a contender, but that’s unlikely. Five years seems optimistic, ten years seems feasible. The first thing that needs done is to get rid of Amaro ASAP. Then the farm system needs to be replenished with young position players that don’t share the same skill set as say, Domonic Brown. Sure, whoever replaces Amaro won’t turn it around immediately; however the fans may be more patient with a guy who is just trying to clean up the cesspool that his predecessor left behind.
