All weekend, it’s been rumored that a James Shields signing would be imminent. Finally, in the wee hours of Monday morning, Shields made his decision, and the final top free agent of the winter signed. Shields agreed to join the San Diego Padres on a four-year deal worth an estimated $72 to $78 million.
The signing of Shields caps a wild winter for the Padres following the earlier trade acquisitions of Matt Kemp, Will Middlebrooks, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, and Justin Upton (among many others). Yes, San Diego will lose the 13th overall pick in the trade for signing Shields, but the team still managed to keep their top trio of prospects (Austin Hedges, Hunter Renfroe, Matt Wisler) and completely remade their team in the process. Giving up one top 15 pick on what looks like a great deal to bring Shields into the fold doesn’t change anything.
Shields has been a horse in the majors for his entire career. He turned 33 in December, but has made at least 31 starts in a season and thrown 200 innings in every year of his career going all the way back to 2006…which he split between AAA and the majors. By the way, he still made 31 starts and threw 186 innings in that season. Needless to say, there’s plenty of mileage on his arm, but he’s shown no sign of breaking down.
Quite frankly, the Padres could use a guy like him in their rotation. Ian Kennedy is San Diego’s only starter that has crossed the 200 inning mark, doing it in 2011, 2012, and 2014. Tyson Ross is coming off of a career-high 195 2/3 innings. Andrew Cashner has never made 30 starts in a season, and has only crossed the 135 inning mark (across all levels, mind you) once in his career. Odrisamer Despaigne is 27 and has spent just one year pitching in American organized baseball. Shields immediately upgrades the Padres rotation at a reasonable cost. He’ll also greatly benefit from moving his home games to Petco Park, but then again, pretty much every pitcher in baseball would benefit from a move like that.
Who are the big losers in this deal? Well, aside from the Royals (who essentially replaced Shields with an inconsistent Edinson Volquez), I’m going to go with a team that was never interested in Shields – the Philadelphia Phillies. Why the Phillies? One of their top suitors for Cole Hamels is now out of that derby. Given San Diego’s active winter, they looked like a team that would have eventually bit the bullet and made a deal for Hamels. But with Shields in the fold, they won’t be acting on Hamels until at least next winter – if he’s even still a Phillie at that point. The only team still left hanging around Hamels is the Red Sox, and their consistent refusal to add catching prospect Blake Swihart to a possible deal hasn’t endeared themselves to Philadelphia.
Signing Shields doesn’t make the Padres favorites in the NL West – that honor still goes to the Dodgers. But does the signing solidify them as a Wild Card contender? Yeah, I’d say so. Instead of floating between somewhere the second and third tier of teams in the National League, the Padres are solidly in that second tier along with the Giants, Pirates, and (yes) Cubs, and look like a solid pick to take one of the NL’s five playoff spots.
