Oh, Padres. Where do you even begin with this?
Six months ago, AJ Preller was seen as a golden beacon of tradin’ GMs, going out of his way to acquire supposedly good offensive players for an offense that was historically bad in 2014. He was wheeling and dealing, getting a brand new outfield and buying both high (Derek Norris) and low (Will Middlebrooks) on other pieces he thought would make a difference. Not even six months into his job, he had turned heads and made news simply by going out of his way to make the trades many people were afraid to ask for. He even went out and got James Shields to bolster the pitching staff! It was like Alex Anthopolous turned up to 11.
There were holes in the plan, of course. That offensively-charged outfield was heavily flawed, especially defensively, and their infield was not great at all. Yet here they were: Going for it in a division where they thought they could challenge both the Dodgers and the Giants while being in the thick of the Wild Card race.
Then, the season began and San Diego’s headstrong offseason became something of a laughing stock. The outfield that was supposed to mash even at Petco Park has delivered 2.1 fWAR, and Justin Upton has supplied 2.0 fWAR worth, making Wil Myers and Matt Kemp replacement-level players. Norris and his 1.8 fWAR are being propped up by him being a catcher, as he has a .286 OBP thanks to a 5% walk rate. The less said about Middlebrooks and his 67 wRC+, the better. In fact, the man with the highest wRC+ on the team coming into Tuesday’s action (albeit through just 36 plate appearances) is Brett Wallace, a minor league free agent best known to the author as his hometown’s greatest professional baseball player.
The team has not done what Preller had hoped for, and with the Friars far behind the Giants and Dodgers in the division and too far off with too many teams ahead of them in the NL Wild Card, many expected the Padres to start selling off assets left and right in order to preserve some sort of a future.
Yet as the trade deadline came and went, it was Anthopolous who acted like his old self while Preller pretended that trades only happened in the offseason. With tons of talent to spare and rumors abound (“Kimbrel, eh? What about that shiny 1B you have?”), the Padres did absolutely nothing of note, puzzling everyone in baseball circles while stumbling about the lower-end of baseball’s middle-class.
So who should have gone? Well, I appreciate you asking:
DEFINITELY:
http://gty.im/478221074
Upton: Look, Justin Upton might be the single most polarizing talent in baseball today. He’s only 27 years old and he’ll soon be 28 and available as a free agent, with only Jason Heyward rivaling him for what could be the biggest payday guaranteed this offseason. Seen as someone who underperforms regularly, it just might be that Upton is who he is at this point. His flaws are easy to spot, with Upton striking out a ton (26.4%) and not playing the best defense in the outfield. On the plus side, Upton’s power is very real, as he has 18 home runs right now and is on pace for 30 at Petco, which is an incredible accomplishment. He’s also still good on the basepaths, swiping 17 bags and making a 25/25 or even a 30/30 season possible. He’s also kept his walk rate near career norms at 9.7% (10.2% career). There’s a lot to like about him, flaws and all.
For the Padres, he represented a move to push the team towards a run in 2015, and with that run coming up short, it would have been the best thing to trade him. You would have been able to get a good package of prospects for Upton, and the Mets would have been the best partner to match up with with their troves of young talent. This is the biggest missed opportunity for the Padres during the trade deadline, and even if it wasn’t to a contender, trading an asset that will only net you a draft pick with a qualifying offer this season instead of pursuing other team’s top talents who could use Upton’s services was a mess-up of the highest degree.
Ian Kennedy: Another impending free agent, Kennedy’s numbers aren’t particularly great (20.2% HR rate is pretty terrible), but home run rates tend to be flukish, especially for fly-ball pitchers like Kennedy. He only has a 10.6% rate for his career, and while FIP hates dingers with a firey passion (Career worst 5.20 in 2015), his expected FIP is only at 3.87, which is around his career average. Same for his strikeout rate (8.19 in 2015, 8.16 career) and his walk rate is lower than normal (2.61 in 2015, 3.00 for his career) and his lowest since 2012. He’s actually a lot closer to a guy like Shields than one might think, and he might get a comparable contract his offseason if he plays his cards right.
However, he really shouldn’t have been kept by this team. Another guy where a qualifying offer won’t get you much for that compensatory draft pick, Kennedy should have had been one of the first guys Preller was pushing in his quest to rebuild. Instead, he’ll hope that Kennedy doesn’t take the QO to try and rebuild his value (which has a good chance of happening) and recoup the draft pick. Preller could have done much better here.
http://gty.im/469190164
Kimbrel: Simply put, unless you’re a contending team, a top-flight closer is a burden, not a blessing. The Braves figured that out when they traded Kimbrel in the first place, mere hours before the start of the regular season. Atlanta was in rebuilding mode and Kimbrel was not the super-closer he once was, even though he’s definitely been elite. He’s cut his walks down (3.79 BB/9 in 2014, 3.19 this year) and has been subject to a higher BABIP than previous seasons (.289 this season compared to .235 last year, which screams normalization) but is still striking out 12.33 per 9. That’s the lowest mark of his career thus far, but is still a Top 10 mark amongst relievers in 2015.
The biggest rumor that didn’t happen with the Padres wasn’t the blown-up Kimbrel for Goldschmidt offer blabbed about by Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart, but a deal with the Astros that would have sent both Kimbrel and Tyson Ross to Houston in exchange for tons of Houston’s young talent, widely regarded as some of the best in the game. Yet somehow, the two teams couldn’t come to an agreement, which might have included Jake Marisnick and Mark Appel. For a luxury like Kimbrel, that’s a trade worth making, even if you’re betting on Ross having a bounceback season next year to pair with Shields and Andrew Cashner. Speaking of…
PROBABLY:
Ross: This is a deal I can understand Preller not pulling the trigger on, but at the same time, if Ross, even in a “down” year, can net you some top-flight prospects/young players in return while packaging him with someone like Kimbrel. Ross was expected to be a star in 2015 after a 2014 breakout, but his high walk totals (4.3 per 9 IP) and a flukily high BABIP (.334) even with his 62.9% groundball rate doesn’t look superficially appealing. That’s why the Astros approached San Diego with the deal in mind, as the Astros groundball ways and attention to detail with the outside corner of the strike zone make Ross a perfect fit for them. This is the one deal where Preller looks smart in not pulling the trigger to an extent.
NEW YORK, NY – JULY 28: James Shields #33 of the San Diego Padres pitches in the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on July 28, 2015 in Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
Shields: Yeah, trading a guy like Shields who is still performing well only months after signing him doesn’t look great, even with him performing at slightly-under his contract value so far. He has issues walking people (career-worst 3.16 BB/9 IP) and he’s had a gopher ball problem (career-worst 17.1% HR rate), but he’s still striking out more than a batter an inning and is a great mid-rotation option for a contender. He would have been an interesting trade chip to put on the table amongst all the other arms at the deadline, but Preller balked at this because he would have had to eat salary to get a good player or two in return. Still, this should have been something pushed for a bit harder by Preller.
All in all, those are really the best trade chips the Padres had at the deadline, with guys like Kemp and Myers having very little trade value and Norris not having much more than them. While abandoning ship after such a fervent offseason shopping spree would be frowned upon, it still would have been the right move, and now Preller will have to sit on his hands this offseason with very few players at the Major League level worth trading and even fewer in the minors that are highly coveted. Some value could have been reclaimed at the deadline, but for Preller, it seems like his yelling and shouting is over.
