A six-game stretch shouldn’t make or break a MLB team’s season. But front offices might place some added importance on games this close to the July 31 trade deadline, as they could determine whether or not a club should try to add pieces or sell them off.
The Baltimore Orioles are in that sort of precarious spot beginning this week. With three games at the Yankees, followed by another three-game set at Tampa Bay, the O’s have a chance to get closer to first place in the AL East and push the competition back. But a poor performance could also send Baltimore tumbling back in the standings. Four games behind the Yankees and 3.5 spots back from the AL’s second wild-card bid, the Orioles really can’t afford to fall much further and remain in realistic contention.
Making an impact addition to the lineup would seem to be crucial for the Orioles to stay in the playoff race. That’s led to rumblings that Baltimore is seeking outfield help, which is where the most glaring need is. Orioles left fielders are hitting a collective .220 with a .634 OPS and eight home runs. Only two other clubs in the AL are getting worse production at that position.
One name that could provide a significant upgrade is Justin Upton, who can be a free agent after this season and is a likely trade candidate because the Padres are out of contention (8.5 games back in the NL West and six behind in the wild-card race). The 27-year-old isn’t having his best season, batting .252 with a .757 OPS, but has 15 home runs and a .426 slugging percentage, which would fit nicely in Buck Showalter’s batting order.
However, Upton has been dealing with a left oblique issue, which might make Orioles GM Dan Duquette hesitant to trade for him. That could prompt Baltimore to look elsewhere, and there are other options that figure to be available.
:CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 20: Jay Bruce #32 of the Cincinnati Reds swings at a pitch in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park on July 20, 2015 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Perhaps the best fit as a left-handed bat would be the Reds’ Jay Bruce. After a slow start, the 28-year-old had a strong June and is hitting well so far in July, which might boost his trade value beyond what the Orioles are willing to pay. Additionally, Bruce is signed through next season with a club option for 2017 (versus a $1 million buyout) and that kind of team control gives Cincinnati plenty of leverage in asking for a nice haul of prospects in return.
Another name that’s been attached to the Orioles in recent days in Carlos Gomez. As a center fielder, he might not be the ideal fit in Baltimore as Adam Jones already mans that position more than capably. But having two center fielders would certainly improve the Orioles’ defense and allow the team to get away with playing Chris Davis in right on a regular basis. Gomez isn’t hitting for as much power as he has the past three seasons, but he appears to be picking that up in July — maybe realizing it helps his trade value. Like Bruce, Gomez is under contract through 2016, so Baltimore would have to give up more to get him.
But the outfield trade market could have a new addition, if reports are correct. And this one would be a two- to three-month rental. According to USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale, the Tigers are strongly considering making Yoenis Cespedes available. Though there is some dispute as to whether or not Detroit will be trade deadline sellers, GM Dave Dombrowski will surely listen to offers before making a decision based on where the Tigers are in the playoff race by July 31.
Cespedes is having a resurgent season after a somewhat disappointing 2014, compiling a .289/.314/482 slash average with 27 doubles and 13 home runs. He’s also having an excellent year on defense — according to advanced metrics, he’s credited with eight Defensive Runs Saved —which could provide the benefit Gomez would have in the outfield, but with more sheer power. If Cespedes is available — and that’s an uncertainty, given that the Tigers could still be in contention — he may very well be the best fit for the Orioles.
Having said all this, the question is whether or not the Orioles are willing or able to trade the top-flight prospects necessary to add an impact bat. Duquette almost certainly doesn’t want to part with pitchers Dylan Bundy or Hunter Harvey, which he would probably have to for Bruce or Gomez. Both young arms have also been struggling with injuries, though nothing likely alarming enough for a team to turn them down in a potential deal.
BALTIMORE, MD – JUNE 24: Executive Vice-President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter #26 of the Baltimore Orioles talk before a baseball game against the Chicago White Sox on June 24, 2014 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
Yet after those two, there’s not a deep mine of talent in the Orioles’ farm system. Chance Sisco is a very promising catcher, but Baltimore might prefer to hang onto him in case Matt Wieters leaves as a free agent after the season. It will probably be at least a couple of years before the 20-year-old earns big league consideration, but Caleb Joseph is a suitable placeholder until Sisco is ready.
A similar circumstance applies to Christian Walker, who hit 26 homers last year between Double- and Triple-A. But Chris Davis will be a free agent and the Orioles might need Walker to eventually take that position. Outfielder Dariel Alvarez is putting up good numbers in Triple-A, but what if Davis leaves and either Upton or Cespedes weren’t re-signed? The Orioles would be trying to patch up an outfield hole again, just as they are this year after Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis left via free agency.
However, Duquette may still have enough in his arsenal to get a short-term fix like Upton or Cespedes. As Derek Harvey suggested in an earlier article about players the Astros might pursue, the best bargain target among outfielders this season might be the Brewers’ Gerardo Parra, who may not supply the same power as the other sluggers available, but is batting .313/.348/.500 with 23 doubles, nine homers and six stolen bases.
A package built around Kevin Gausman — whose major league performance hasn’t followed through on his minor league potential — along with some combination of Triple-A pitcher Mike Wright (2.96 ERA, 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings), Tyler Wilson (3.14 ERA), or Zach Davies (3.02 ERA, 7.7 Ks/9) could get a deal done. That might be especially true for a team seeking to get something in return, rather than get nothing else but a compensatory draft pick during the offseason.
Duquette will probably have to bank on such favorable circumstances to get the help the Orioles need. Last year, he traded Eduardo Rodriguez to get Andrew Miller from the Red Sox, a deal Baltimore might regret since the left-handed reliever eventually left as a free agent. But it was worth the risk at the time, and Miller was dominant during the postseason. The Orioles’ GM will almost certainly need to make a deal that could hurt just as much, if it means getting the sort of run producer that could help Baltimore catch up in the AL playoff race and make another run in October.
