The Cardinals weren’t supposed to be the best team in the National League this season. The Nationals were a widely popular pick to win the World Series, with the Dodgers looking like the club most likely to give them a run for the pennant.
While most seemed to predict St. Louis would win its third consecutive NL Central title and get to the postseason for the fifth year in a row, there were a few observers and experts who believed the Pirates would overtake the Cardinals in the division. The NL Central appeared to be the most competitive division in baseball, with all five of its teams possible playoff contenders. Yet the Cards were likely to be the best of them, at least among the top two.
Maybe there was a bit of “Oh, not these guys again” in picking another team over St. Louis, whether it was the Pirates in the NL Central or the Nationals and Dodgers in the NL. (The defending World Series champion Giants could be largely written off, since they had a lackluster offseason and don’t make the playoffs in odd-numbered years.) Pittsburgh had the look of a young and exciting team coming together. The Nats added Max Scherzer to an already stacked roster. And the Dodgers’ new front office used resources other than big money to create a more efficient roster.
Along with the flurry of moves by the Padres later in the offseason that grabbed most baseball headlines, it was easy to forget that the Cardinals essentially fired the starting gun on the offseason by acquiring outfielder Jason Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden from the Braves in exchange for starting pitcher Shelby Miller and Double-A arm Tyrell Jenkins.
Getting one of the most exciting young players in baseball — who still had plenty of potential to fulfill — put the rest of the NL, if not all of MLB, on notice. St. Louis wasn’t just going to let its propsects fill gaps in its veteran lineup. The Cardinals were going to make a serious run at another World Series title and any other contenders would have to go through them.
ST. LOUIS, MO – MAY 3: Kolten Wong #16 of the St. Louis Cardinals is mobbed by teammates after hitting a walk-off home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the fourteenth inning at Busch Stadium on May 3, 2015 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Nearly six weeks into the 2015 season, that’s almost exactly how the hierarchy in the NL has shaken out. Well, maybe it hasn’t all progressed as originally expected. The Dodgers are playing well, but their depth in the starting rotation and bullpen is being tested. The Nats are currently one game under .500 (14-15) and hold third place in the NL East. Perhaps the biggest surprise has been the Mets, but can their impressive pitching continue to carry a mediocre offense?
In the NL Central, the Pirates have been disappointing, currently three games under .500 (12-15) and hold third place. Pittsburgh looks like a team that will soon play better, but eight games out of first place is already a considerable hole to climb out from. The Reds could challenge the Pirates for second place and a wild-card slot, but seem too inconsistent to get a read on right now. While the Cubs are showing that excitement about them was warranted, their young roster still needs to develop and isn’t yet ready to mount a serious threat. And then there are the Brewers. They just fired their manager.
Are the St. Louis Cardinals the best team in baseball? They currently have MLB’s best record at 20-7, holding the biggest first-place lead among the six division leaders at 5.5 games. St. Louis is also 2.5 games ahead of the Mets for the top seed in the NL. Is this as simple as the Bill Parcells motto, “You are what your record says you are“?
What if the Cardinals might actually be better than their record indicates? Or rather, what if this team has the potential to be better?
St. Louis arguably doesn’t have a No. 1 starter in its rotation following Adam Wainwright’s season-ending injury and are currently auditioning pitchers for that opening. Though Wainwright contributed to the Cards’ MLB-leading 2.59 ERA, the other four starters on the staff have performed very well. Lance Lynn has 42 strikeouts in 35.1 innings. Michael Wacha is carrying a 1.93 ERA. And while Carlos Martinez’s control is a concern (14 walks in 29.2 innings), he is striking batters out.
The Cardinals’ bullpen has been especially impressive, compiling a 1.49 ERA while holding opponents to a .198 average and .557 OPS. Trevor Rosenthal walks more batters than a closer ideally would (averaging four per nine innings), but has 17 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. Kevin Siegrist and Matt Belisle have been reliable setup relievers. Walden was pitching extremely well in front of Rosenthal, posting an 0.87 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 10.1 innings, but a strained shoulder is knocking him out for six to 10 weeks.
MILWAUKEE, WI – APRIL 24: Jason Heyward #22 of the St. Louis Cardinals runs the bases after hitting a solo home run in the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park on April 24, 2015 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Mike McGinnis/Getty Images)
That brings us to the Cards’ big offseason deal and how the team is succeeding in spite of it. Walden was a fantastic addition, and could still prove to be crucial during a September pennant run and a postseason in which a deep bullpen has proved to be extremely important. But losing him until possibly mid-July is significant.
The more notable aspect of that trade is that Heyward has contributed very little to the Cardinals’ efforts this season. A .228/.284/.337 slash average is extremely disappointing, nothing close to the top-of-the-order batter that St. Louis thought it was adding. While the Cards didn’t expect Heyward to be the slugging run producer that his build and early career promised, it wasn’t unreasonable to assume that he could at least get on-base for Matt Holliday, Matt Adams and Jhonny Peralta to drive in.
Instead, manager Mike Matheny has had to move Heyward down to sixth in the lineup. And if not for lineup considerations — alternating left-handed and right-handed hitters — or Yadier Molina hitting better, Heyward might be even lower in the batting order. But perhaps Matheny isn’t unhappy with the results right now. The Cardinals had won eight straight games before Wednesday night’s 6-5 loss to the Cubs. A platoon of Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos batting leadoff, followed by a resurgent Matt Carpenter provide a good top of the lineup. Meanwhile, Heyward batted 4-for-11 (.364) in the three-game series, giving his numbers an upward nudge.
If there are still concerns about the rotation needing an ace in the No. 1 spot, the Cardinals have the resources to make a play for Cole Hamels. Even the Nationals and their vaunted starting staff would raise an eyebrow at that. General manager John Mozeliak will surely also be shopping for relievers at the trade deadline, even if Walden recovers nicely, as relief arms always become available. And that’s overlooking the reinforcements the Cards already have in-house. Pitcher Jaime Garcia and outfielder Randal Grichuk are still recovering from injuries. Marco Gonzales and Tim Cooney could aid the rotation or bullpen.
Is St. Louis the best team in baseball? The rest of the NL and MLB better hope not, because if that’s the case and this club can get even better, there’s not much chance for everyone else. Those rooting for the Redbirds’ decline or demise will have to wait at least another year for that so-called Cardinals Devil Magic to end its reign of terror.
