As we enter September, most of the races across baseball have been decided, or at least narrowed down. Josh Donaldson and Mike Trout are poised to battle for the AL MVP award. Bryce Harper seems destined to win the NL MVP, barring a massive collapse and a huge surge from Andrew McCutchen or Anthony Rizzo.
Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant appear to be the clear favorites for each league’s Rookie of the Year award. Hell, even all but one of the playoff races look to be over – nine teams have playoff odds of over 87%, per Fangraphs, and eight of those nine teams are over 94%.
And then, there are the Cy Young award races in each league.
There is no dominant candidate in either league, and a mess of players at the top of the pack can separate themselves in September. Back in July, we tabbed Max Scherzer and Chris Sale as the first half Cy Young winners, but neither looks poised to claim the actual hardware when the season concludes. Scherzer still has a 2.88 ERA, 209 strikeouts, and just 26 walks in 178 innings, but his win/loss record (guh) is just 11-11, and he’s scuffled his way to a 5.09 ERA in the second half as the Nationals have fallen apart.
Sale leads the American League in fWAR (6.2), punching out 239 and walking 36 in 177 2/3 innings, but he too has struggled in the second half (4.47 ERA) and his White Sox haven’t been able to contend like many of us (myself included) expected.
LOS ANGELES, CA – AUGUST 28: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws a pitch against the Chicago Cubs at Dodger Stadium on August 28, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Last year’s winners are in decent position to repeat, but neither is the favorite. Clayton Kershaw’s 6.6 fWAR leads baseball, while his 2.24 ERA is fourth, his 185 innings pitched are fifth, and 236 strikeouts are second, behind just Sale. But his 11-6 record is mediocre, and teammate Zack Greinke trumps him in record (again, guh), ERA, and innings pitched, perhaps giving him the edge.
As for the AL winner last year, Corey Kluber – he’s been magnificent once again, leading baseball in innings pitched and ranking fourth in strikeouts. But again – his 8-13 record playing for a disappointing Indians team mutes some of the praise he deserves, and his 3.41 ERA obscures how good he’s really been this season. There’s a realistic chance that Kluber finishes the year with more innings, more strikeouts, and fewer walks than last season…but with an ERA a full run worse than his 2.44 mark from last year.
Greinke is an interesting case. His 15-3 record appeases the win/loss crowd, and his 1.59 ERA is downright stupid – that’s good for a 235 ERA+, the 11th-best single season mark of all-time and bested by only Bob Gibson, Greg Maddux, and Pedro Martinez in the modern era. And while the rest of Greinke’s stats are obviously quite good, they’re not on that same level. His 169 strikeouts rank 16th in baseball (right between Cole Hamels and Gerrit Cole), and his 5.28 strikeout to walk rate is 9th (between Carlos Carrasco and David Price). Greinke is the safe choice – a great pitcher having a great year.
LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 01: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on September 1, 2015 in Los Angeles, California (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
The NL has a batch of other strong, though unlikely, candidates – Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, and Michael Wacha all pitch for contenders and are having fantastic years, and can easily boost themselves to the top of the voters’ minds with strong finishes to the year. However, Cole got shelled on Tuesday in Milwaukee, Bumgarner got outdueled by Greinke in LA, and deGrom is one start removed from a beatdown at the hands of the lowly Phillies. Starts like those late in the year don’t help their cases (whether that’s fair or not is a different story).
There’s a lot less depth among the AL candidates. Sale and Kluber are obviously pitching quite well, as are Kluber’s teammate Carlos Carrasco, Chris Archer of the Rays, Sonny Gray of the Athletics, and Tiger turned Blue Jay David Price. Of those four candidates just mentioned, Price is the one that I feel can make a late surge. He’s been dynamite with Toronto, pitching to a 2.28 ERA in six starts, striking out 50 and walking eight in 43 1/3 innings. If he can pitch that well over five or six more starts in September, Price will end up with somewhere in the neighborhood of 240 strikeouts, around 230 innings pitched, and an ERA under 2.50. That would give him an incredibly strong case, not to mention the whole “narrative” aspect of the Jays’ white hot run since acquiring him from Detroit.
If you’ve made it this far in this column, you’ve probably noticed two names missing, and that’s by design – they’re probably the favorites right now. Jake Arrieta of the Cubs and Dallas Keuchel of the Astros look poised to win hardware for the first time in each of their careers.
LOS ANGELES, CA – AUGUST 30: Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubs pitches during his no hitter against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on August 30, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Arrieta is having a magnificent season, his second full year with the Cubs. In 183 innings, he’s pitched to a 2.11 ERA, striking out 190 and walking 44. In the NL, he ranks third in innings pitched (behind Greinke and Kershaw), second in ERA (behind Greinke), and fourth in strikeouts (behind Kershaw, Scherzer, and Bumgarner). Arrieta’s Cubs are also streaking towards their first Postseason berth since 2008, and his 17 wins lead the National League. And what the hell – he’s also thrown a no-hitter (not that a no-hitter is anything but a nice addition to his season, given that we’ve seen six of them this year).
Keuchel has followed up his breakout 2014 by kicking down the door in the American League in 2015. His 2.24 ERA is second in the AL, behind Gray. His 192 2/3 innings pitched rank second in the AL, behind Kluber. His 173 strikeouts “only” rank fifth, behind Sale, Archer, Kluber, and Price. And like Arrieta, his 16 wins lead in the AL, and he’s helping lead the Astros to their first Postseason berth since their NL pennant winning season of 2005.
When you combine strong traditional statistics, strong advanced statistics, and a strong narrative, you have the makings of a strong Cy Young candidate. Baseball has two of those right now – but all it takes is a couple of bad starts in a row, and everything can be destroyed.
