On Monday, the third MLB manager of the 2015 season was canned as the Padres dumped Bud Black after nine largely mediocre years. Black joins Ron Roenicke and Mike Redmond on the unemployment line, and I can’t remember the last time we saw three managers get canned in a season before the first day of summer.
That got me thinking about the other 27 managers across the game. Who else might get canned this year? I decided to set odds on the firing of the other 27 managers across the game, excluding the replacements for the three fired managers. Who is most likely to get fired? Who is least likely to get fired. Without any further ado…
Brad Ausmus – 75:1. Maybe a bit low, but the Tigers’ window is closing, given their salary commitments in the future and their aging core. Ausmus won the AL Central with the club last year, and was summarily swept out of the playoffs by Buck Showalter’s Orioles. If this Tigers team, with David Price and Miguel Cabrera lighting up box scores every night, can’t make the playoffs, I think Ausmus may need to worry about his job.
Jeff Banister – 500:1. This is probably low. The Rangers were supposed to stink this year after losing Yu Darvish during Spring Training, but Banister has them right in the thick of the AL West race. As a first year manager, he’ll get more leeway than some others, too.
Bruce Bochy – 5000:1. Bochy’s only leaving San Francisco if he wants to leave.
Kevin Cash – 1000:1. Look who’s at the top of the AL East…yup, it Cash’s Rays. Joe Maddon’s replacement has done a fantastic job at the helm of Tampa Bay this season, despite his team getting slaughtered by injuries. Drew Smyly, Alex Cobb, and Desmond Jennings have been non-factors this year…and the Rays are seven games above .500.
Terry Collins – 75:1. Collins is in lame duck mode for the Mets, but guess what? They’re something more than mediocre this season! New York hasn’t made the playoffs since 2006, but through 65 games, they’re at the top of the NL East. If New York falls apart in the second half, he’s gone. But if they keep their heads above water and all of their young talent stays healthy, I think Collins is a lock to stay.
BOSTON, MA – JUNE 15: John Farrell #53 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after it was ruled that Andrelton Simmons #19 of the Atlanta Braves was hit by a pitch in the seventh inning at Fenway Park on June 15, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
John Farrell – 10:1. This is John Farrell’s fifth season in charge of an MLB club. He’s finished above .500 once, and that was the year the Red Sox won the World Series. 2013 was the only season in which a Farrell-managed team finished higher than fourth in the AL East standings. With the Red Sox off to another slow start following their offseason spending spree, he’s the most logical person to get the blame for their struggles.
Terry Francona – 200:1. Francona’s been great with Cleveland, and I doubt they dump him. But expectations were high for the Indians this season, and so far, they haven’t lived up to those expectations. Would a sub-.500 season after getting World Series buzz in the offseason be enough to send Francona to the unemployment line?
John Gibbons – 20:1. That 11 game winning streak may have saved Gibbons’ job, as it pushed the Blue Jays back into the thick of the AL East race. Toronto revamped their club before the 2013 season with Gibbons at the helm, and they stumbled to a last place finish. They performed better in 2014 despite no major additions, and revamped their squad again this offseason with the playoffs in mind. If Gibbons can’t take this team, with an MVP candidate in Josh Donaldson, a top-tier catcher in Russell Martin, and elite power bats in Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, to the playoffs, he’ll be looking for a new job sooner rather than later.
Joe Girardi – 100:1. Girardi should be safe. He’s one of the best managers in baseball. Unfortunately for him, he’s the manager of the Yankees, and expectations are through the roof. He’s the main reason that the Yankees are even playing as well as they are this season. But could the storied club and their fans really deal with a third straight year without 90 wins, let alone without a playoff berth?
Fredi Gonzalez – 40:1. Gonzalez is probably the most difficult manager to predict on the board. He’s proven time and time again that he’s not a good tactical manager. He’s in his fifth year with the Braves, and has one playoff win to show for himself. But the front office (specifically Bobby Cox, who hand-picked Gonzalez as his replacement) reportedly loves him, and the Braves aren’t as much of a disaster this year as many expected. Gonzalez probably *shouldn’t* be employed…but I think he’ll be safe, barring a major collapse.
Chip Hale – 1000:1. I give the Diamondbacks crap on a weekly basis, but I’ll once again give them credit – Hale, Tony La Russa, and Dave Stewart have this team in a great position to contend in the future. They’re a game under .500 and just two games back of the Giants in the NL West standings, despite a mediocre rotation and some black holes on offense.
AJ Hinch – 5000:1. First place Houston Astros. Unbelievable.
Clint Hurdle – 500:1. Two straight NL Wild Cards for the Pirates, and Pittsburgh is sitting pretty for a third this year. But if the Pirates falter, could Neal Huntington pull the trigger on a new manager? I think the chances are minuscule, but hey…stranger things have happened.
Joe Maddon – 5000:1. After what the Cubs went through to get Maddon this offseason, they’re not going to cut bait on him after one season. Plus, the Cubs are…you know….good.
Mike Matheny – 500:1. Matheny hasn’t been the best tactical maanger in baseball since his appointment after the 2011 season, but he hasn’t missed the playoffs in his three seasons, won the 2013 NL pennant, and his Cardinals have baseball’s best record this season. Fun fact – Mike Matheny has the best career winning percentage of any manager since Earl Weaver left the Orioles in 1986.
Don Mattingly – 200:1. It’s time to crap or get off the pot for Mattingly and his Dodgers, but he’s looking pretty safe. Los Angeles has improved their win total in each of his first four years on the job, and has won the NL West title in each of the past two seasons. If Mattingly gets into the playoffs and faces off with the Cardinals once again, he needs to take the series…if only for his own sanity.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – MAY 25: Manager Lloyd McClendon #21 of the Seattle Mariners looks on from the dugout during the sixth inning of a game against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 25, 2015 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Lloyd McClendon – 12:1. The Mariners won 87 games last year and were eliminated from the Postseason race on the final day of the regular season. This offseason, they added Nelson Cruz and a cadre of solid outfield options, looking to make the leap into the AL West’s premier team. It hasn’t gone so well, and many of the fingers are pointing at the man at the helm of the team. Yes, the AL West is a solid division this season, but Seattle needs to do better than fourth place, given the amount of money spent by the front office this winter.
Bob Melvin – 40:1. Melvin is well-liked by the A’s players and front office, and has reached the playoffs in three straight seasons. But he was at the helm of last season’s ugly second half collapse, and has managed this team to the worst record in the American League this season after an ambitious offseason rebuild by Billy Beane and company. If the A’s can start playing up to their run differential over the season’s last 90+ games, there’s no way Melvin will be canned. However, if they keep underachieving…
Paul Molitor – 1000:1. Another first year manager experiencing plenty of success with a team that hasn’t won much of anything in recent years. Molitor is safe…unless Torii Hunter goes ballistic again and causes a full-scale incident in the clubhouse, of course.
Bryan Price – 12:1. Should Bryan Price be fired? The Reds are off to another bad start, and are falling further behind the top three teams in the NL Central. Cincinnati should probably start selling off their best assets, but won’t do it until after they host the All-Star Game next month. It’s a tough situation with Price, because his team has been doomed by injuries over the last two years…but their window is likely closing with the impending departures of Johnny Cueto and possibly Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman. So again I ask…should Bryan Price be fired? I’m not sure if he’s the right guy to lead a rebuild in Cincinnati, and that’s where it looks like they’re heading.
Ryne Sandberg – 4:1. Sandberg performed admirably in 2013 following the ouster of Charlie Manuel, disappointed in 2014 as the Phillies finished in last for the first time since 2000, and has been an unmitigated disaster this season during what could be Philly’s worst season in the last half century. I honestly can’t see any way he survives this season – the team hasn’t won, developed young talent, and he hasn’t shown any signs of being a top-tier manager. That’s not a good combination.
Mike Scioscia – 50:1. I don’t think Mike Scioscia will ever actually go away. He’ll just sort of keep fading away into less and less prominent roles. The Angels won 98 games and the AL West title last year, but were swept out of the playoffs by the Royals. Scioscia’s club is off to a .500 start this year, and looks every bit as mediocre as they did from 2010-2013. Anaheim has won just one playoff series since 2006. That 2002 World Championship seems like a long time ago, but Arte Moreno loves Scioscia. I think it would take a complete disaster for Scioscia to get canned…think something like a 90 loss season. That’s not impossible, but it’s not exactly likely either.
Buck Showalter – 300:1. This might be low. Showalter is beloved in Baltimore, and his Orioles are relevant for the first time since Cal Ripken retired. Could he get canned by the team? Sure, it’s conceivable, but I doubt it…unless their rotation continues to struggle and the O’s limp to a 90 loss season. Then, his future could be in question.
ARLINGTON, TX – JUNE 03: Manager Robin Ventura of the Chicago White Sox during a game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington on June 3, 2015 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Robin Ventura – 10:1. Ventura had no managerial experience when the White Sox hired him to replace Ozzie Guillen after the 2011 season. He won 85 games in his first year with the club, but the White Sox have underperformed since then, and are currently six games under .500 with an AL-worst -64 run differential despite adding Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, David Robertson, and Jeff Samardzija this winter. Chicago is supposed to contend this year, but they’re not, and Ventura will probably end up getting sent through the Moon Door if the White Sox don’t get out of the AL Central basement soon.
Walt Weiss – 20:1. I have no idea how to evaluate Walt Weiss. Like Ventura, he was hired without any managerial experience. Unlike Ventura, the Rockies weren’t really expected to contend this year. But they…aren’t as bad as expected? And Weiss’s Rockies have been smashed with injuries during his time with the club? But there’s new leadership in Colorado following the hiring of Jeff Bridich, and he might want his own guy in there…despite being promoted from within. I think Weiss will stay on, just because the Rockies need a lot more help than just a new manager.
Matt Williams – 20:1. Another interesting one. Williams won 96 games with the Nationals last year, and his heavily favored team was thumped by the Giants in the playoffs. This year, they’re off to a slow start thanks in large part to a never-ending parade of injuries to key players. If the Nationals miss the playoffs this year after becoming offseason champions yet again, the sword has to swing at someone…and that someone will likely be Williams, despite his 2016 option getting picked up in February. With how weak the NL East is this season, there’s no reason for the Nationals to not crush the division.
Ned Yost – 300:1. After Kansas City’s miracle Postseason run lats year, I’d assume Yost is safe. But let’s not forget that he was quite bad during his first three seasons with the Royals, had a largely mediocre run with the Brewers, and isn’t too highly thought of as a tactical manager. Kansas City has a cushion in the AL Central and Yost’s seat isn’t lukewarm, but it could get there if the Tigers, Twins, and Indians make it a race in the second half.
