Well, at least the Mets didn’t have a winless road trip.
That’s probably the best takeaway from Thursday’s 2-0 victory over the Brewers, which mercifully ended a seven-game losing streak and avoided the indignity of losing all eight games of a road spin through Toronto, Atlanta and Milwaukee. However, salvaging one victory puts just a speck of shine on what has been a bleak stretch for the Mets.
Before the seven-game slide, the Mets held a 1.5-game lead over the Nationals in the NL East. That seemed improbable and temporary with the way the Mets had been playing and the lineups manager Terry Collins has had to put on the field. Additionally, the Nats have every appearance of ramping up toward fulfilling the World Series expectations placed upon them. Yet the standings indicated that the Mets were going to stick around and fight. That is, until the bottom dropped out.
Following this plunge, the Mets are now 37-37, leaving them 3.5 games behind in both the NL East and wild-card races. That doesn’t look so bad, but is more of an indictment on the rest of the league than any sort of endorsement for this team’s chances. The Mets have scored 11 runs in their past eight games, which averages out to less than one per game. As impressive as their pitching has been, no club is going to overcome such dismal run production.
With 265 runs, the Mets have scored the second-fewest in the NL. Their .237 team batting average and .665 OPS are tied for worst in the league. Not a single everyday batter is hitting .300 (or even .270, since Daniel Murphy is on the disabled list), and only two have an OPS over .750. Though the pitching staff has a 3.56 ERA with a .685 opponents’ OPS and 283 runs allowed, each ranking fifth in the league, that leaves the team with a -18 run differential. Only five NL clubs are worse.
You get the idea. It’s bad, damn bad. And with the Reds, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals and Nationals on the upcoming schedule, it will almost certainly not get better.
NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 21: Terry Collins #10 of the New York Mets laughs in the dugout prior to a game against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on April 21, 2015 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Alex Trautwig/Getty Images)
So manager Terry Collins should be fired, right?
Never mind that he had his team in first place through most of April and May, even if that was likely due more to the Nationals playing far below their talent level during the first two months of the season. Never mind that the only offseason addition to the lineup was Michael Cuddyer. Never mind that the roster depth and farm system are so devoid of position player talent that Eric Campbell (with a .173/.262/.268 slash average) and Ruben Tejada (.256/.331/.372) have been playing third base for the injured David Wright.
I’m not saying Collins doesn’t deserve criticism. He gives underperforming veterans too much leeway over younger players. He leans too heavily on two or three arms in his bullpen. And his batting orders are often perplexing.
The latest example of Collins’ stubbornness with his lineup is refusing to move Curtis Granderson lower in the batting order where his extra-base power might actually contribute more run production. Collins defends that stance by saying he doesn’t want to disrupt Granderson by moving him from the leadoff spot. And even if he did push the outfielder down to the middle of the lineup, who would get on base ahead of him to be driven in?
While those are both solid points, what does Collins have to lose when his offense averaged fewer than two runs per game during this recent losing streak? What if somebody draws a walk in front of Granderson or reaches on an error? What if a batter or two gets better pitches to hit because the opposing pitcher doesn’t want to put anyone on base in case Granderson hits one out. Collins likely doesn’t want to bat Granderson and Lucas Duda back-to-back, so put Cuddyer between them if that’s how it has to be. Or bat Granderson second and try Tejada or Cuddyer at leadoff.
Alright, @iancass. How busy SHOULD the @Mets be at the trade deadline and how busy WILL they be?
— Maximus (@MaximusRadio) June 24, 2015
Try something, right? Maybe Collins deserves some credit for not making changes for the sake of change, and thus appearing to do more than might really be necessary so it looks like he’s managing. Maybe his players appreciate not being jerked around, instead of being taken out of a comfort zone. But when Collins essentially shrugs his shoulders at his team’s plight, you can understand why many fans become frustrated and call for his job.
Would changing managers really make that much of a difference right now? If, say, Wally Backman was promoted to the big leagues to replace Collins, wouldn’t he have to deal with the same roster defiencies? Is the belief (and hope) that a new voice and different approach might coax some different results out of various players who perhaps have become a bit comfortable and aren’t showing enough urgency? Or would this just be an admission that, hey, Collins isn’t coming back after this season, so let’s just get a head start on next year?
That is probably the best justification for canning Collins. If the replacement is considered a long-term choice and not an interim stopgap, then give him the next 85-plus games to evaluate the roster and figure who’s worth keeping and who needs to go. But if not, what’s the point? Is it that general manager Sandy Alderson believes he’s given Collins the type of talent that should get better results? If so, he’s delusional enough to warrant his own dismissal.
The question is whether or not Alderson should try to make some moves before the trade deadline. Help at third base is a necessity, though Murphy could get a look there when he returns (unless he becomes trade bait). A bolder attempt would be trying to get Luis Valbuena or Jed Lowrie from the Astros, and Houston would certainly be interested in starting pitching, which is the one resource Alderson has to offer.
The Mets have enough starting pitching, in fact, to fuel a blockbuster deal, which led to this hypothetical from The Wall Street Journal‘s Jared Diamond:
Really curious: Would you trade Noah Syndergaard for Todd Frazier? Favorite for yes, retweet for no. — Jared Diamond (@jareddiamond) June 26, 2015
For what it’s worth, the fans who responded were resoundingly in favor of making that deal, even though it would surely take more to get a player of Frazier’s caliber. (And if it didn’t, the next column written here should be calling for Walt Jocketty’s job in Cincinnati.) But the underlying point is that the Mets have pitching to spare, even more so with the promotion of Steven Matz, which effectively makes a six-man rotation. Trading some of it is likely the only way this team can add some offense if it’s not going to spend money on free agents better than Cuddyer.
But to get an impact hitter like Ben Zobrist or Aramis Ramirez — or really try to push the boundaries of possibility by pursuing the likes of Adrian Beltre or Ian Desmond — Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee or Jon Niese probably won’t cut it. Alderson will have to make a deal that hurts a bit. Probably more than a bit. Given his track record with the Mets, that almost certainly won’t happen.
Which brings us back to Collins basically shrugging his shoulders. What else can he do? He may just be doing it at home eventually, rather than in the Mets dugout.
