Going into the season, the Mets were generally viewed somewhat favorably as at least Wild Card contenders, which is something that hasn’t been said about them in a very long time. No one reasonably expected them to win the division because 100 wins was arguably a reasonable expectation for the mighty Nats. Early on, the story has been very different though and as of this writing, the Mets are leading the division with a record of 18-10 (4.5 games ahead of the third place Nationals). It’s still early, but with a month of games in the book it’s fair to ask if perhaps we underestimated the Mets and more importantly if they can actually win the division crown.
I want to approach this at the macro level (team) and then the micro level (individual players). We’ll look at pitching first.
As a team (rotation + bullpen) the Mets rank 5th in FanGraphs version of WAR. They have a 2.90 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 3.21 xFIP, and a 4.1 fWAR. They’re getting good results from their rotation as well as their bullpen so it’s evenly distributed which is important. That’s all very good and not really unexpected. Pitching was always going to be their strength.
Their rotation currently ranks 6th in fWAR (2.9) with a 2.95 ERA, 3.43 FIP, and 3.34 xFIP. Their ERA is outperforming it’s FIP and xFIP which suggests one could expect it’s ERA to jump a few tenths of a point. But a low 3.30 ERA would still be quite good. For example, last year a 3.40 ERA would have been the fifth best mark for a team’s rotation in all of baseball.
Matt Harvey is leading the rotation with 2.41 ERA, 2.81 FIP, and 2.91 xFIP. According to his player page on FanGraphs ZiPS rest of season projection for Harvey is 3.13 ERA and 3.16 FIP. Some regression could be expected but he’s an elite talent so even then he’s going to be good.
Bartolo Colon continues to amaze with his 2.90 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 3.18 xFIP. ZiPS has him with a 4.03 ERA and 3.62 ERA. Colon is currently sporting the highest K% of his career and the lowest (by far) BB% of his career. That’s not going to continue so it’s not surprising to see projection systems expecting a big drop in production.
Jacob deGrom is continuing where he left off last year with a 2.95 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 3.58 xFIP. ZiPS is more in line with his current FIP. It projects him for 3.43 ERA and a 3.25 FIP. Like Harvey even with some regression deGrom should still be good.
Jon Niese currently has a 2.40 ERA, 4.20 FIP, and 3.52 xFIP. ZiPS pegs him as a 3.92 ERA and 3.77 FIP performer for the rest of the season. It’s not out of line with the type of pitcher he is. He’s a contact pitcher who has been getting really lucky. His has a .289 opponent batting average and a .321 BABIP. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters so must have helped spread out the hits. Sooner or later though, one has to expect them to come in bunches.
By ERA Dillon Gee has been the “worst” starter for the Mets so far. He has a 3.86 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 3.73 xFIP. ZiPS is expecting him to get worse too. It has him putting up a 4.23 ERA and 4.20 FIP. His peripherals are not all that dissimilar from Niese’s. He’s just been less lucky.
So that’s two very good pitchers (Harvey, deGrom) and three mediocre to below average starters who are perhaps over performing. I’m not sure what the Mets plans are but if they want to replace one of the lesser starters they have some pretty good in-house options.
It is just 4 starts (22.1 IP) but Noah Syndergaard has 31.0 K%, 9.5 BB%, .197 BAA, 1.06 WHIP, 0.42 HR/9, 1.66 ERA, and 2.93 FIP. Steamer projects him for 46 major league innings with 3.54 ERA and 3.44 FIP. Long term he’s has a good shot to be much better than that. But even consider possible short term struggles as he adjusts to major league hitters he’s likely a better option than Dillon Gee.
Stephen Matz is another option but he’s not clearly a better option at the moment than Gee or Niese. Like Syndergaard he’s also tearing up AAA but scouting reports and projection systems agree he’s more of a 3/4 type starter. Steamer projects him for 46 innings in the bullpen and rotation with a 3.80 ERA and 3.81 FIP. That’s pretty darned good for your 7th or 8th starter though.
Their bullpen ranks 8th in fWAR (1.1) with a 2.77 ERA, 2.77 FIP, and 2.88 FIP. While their ERA, FIP, and xFIP all seem to match up, the bullpen’s .235 BABIP seems too low to be sustainable. Last year’s league average for relievers was .294. The Giants’ bullpen had the lowest BABIP in baseball at .256. It’s not impossible the Mets relievers keep up this pace but it seems unlikely. That doesn’t mean they’re secretly bad though.
Projecting relievers is less of a safe bet so I won’t go over them. But I will note that several relievers are currently on the disabled list so help could be on the way when they return. Perhaps the most notable of those relievers is former closer Bobby Parnell who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Other former closer Jenrry Mejia should return in the second half of the season after serving an 80 game suspension for PEDs.
Bottom line: I would expect them to allow a marginal to moderate amount more than the 3.07 runs per game they’re currently giving up but all things considered the Mets pitching staff is still going to continue to be quite good. The same may not be true about their offense.
Actually the Mets offense right now isn’t any good. By wOBA the Mets rank 25th in baseball at .292. By wRC+ they rank 24th at 87. That means to date their offense has been 13% worse than league average. They’ve only scored 3.89 runs per game which is 9th lowest in baseball. It’s only thanks to their superb pitching that they have a positive 23 run differential. Obviously their offense needs to perform better or they won’t be able to win enough to take the division.
It hasn’t helped that two of their better offensive players in David Wright and Travis D’Arnaud are currently on the disabled list. Outside of those two only three batters have hit above a 100 wRC+ (league average). They are Lucas Duda (135), Curtis Granderson (112), and Michael Cuddyer (101). Dilson Herrera is on this list too but only with 17 PA.
The only one of these guys that’s really bringing it is Duda. He’s slashing 290/379/440. That batting average is too high for him and his .351 BABIP suggests he’s getting rather lucky as his career BABIP is .296. His 11.2 BB% is spot on and his .440 slugging percentage might actually be a bit low. All things considered I would expect Duda to continue raking just in a different way (fewer hits, more power).
Curtis Granderson currently has a 16.2 BB% and while he’s always boasted good walk rates that’s too high to be sustainable. It’s really the only thing that’s propping up is offense. His slash line looks like this: 239/360/359. He’s not hitting and he’s not hitting for power. The batting average seems right and one could reasonably expect the slugging to jump up but the OBP should drop.
Michael Cuddyer might be able to contribute more as the year goes on. His 24.3 K% is high for him and his .294 BABIP might be a bit low. However his career might have been artificially extended by his time in Colorado. I don’t like to put too much stock in home road splits but Coors Field is a bit different. There he slashed 326/393/591 (.421 wOBA, 137 wRC+) while on the road he slashed 284/332/463 (.344 wOBA, 118 wRC+). That’s a stark enough contrast on it’s own but now he’s playing half his games at Citi Field. He’s also 36 years old.
The Mets don’t have another player that is projected for above league average offense (100 wRC+). Kevin Plawecki and Dilson Herrera offer some upside with their bats. After them the Mets don’t exactly have another good hitting prospect near the majors or ready to contribute this year.
When Wright and D’Arnaud return that will help. But still we’re looking at just three guys (counting Duda) that the Mets one could reasonably call offensive threats. This is definitely an area where the Mets likely need to go outside the organization to improve. The outfield is crowded so improving that will be difficult. It seems most likely that an offensive (and defensive) improvement will most easily be achieved at shortstop.
Bottom line: The Mets offense needs to improve. It should with the returns of David Wright and Travis D’Arnaud but besides them it’s less likely in-house options will vastly improve on their own. They need to make some trades.
Conclusion
The Mets’ pitching is pretty great. It might even get better with the promotion of some of their better pitching prospects. No such help is coming for the offense which has been pretty bad so far. They have been somewhat lucky to get to 18-10 but it doesn’t matter how they got there. What matters is the future.
The Nationals are beat up right now but that can’t last and they’ve had better pitching than New York. The Marlins having been struggling but they’re going to get ace Jose Fernandez back at some point and if they see an opportunity could make trades to improve their team mid-season.
The Mets have a chance to really put a stranglehold on first place if their offense can catch up to their pitching. They’ve made it this far and they should do what they can to prop up the offense in an attempt to not lose ground. If they don’t add to their offense I’m not sure I buy them as legitimate division contenders. Luck doesn’t last forever. But Wild Card should still be in play and maybe that’s good enough for them.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
