Melvin Upton Jr (the artist formerly known as Bossman Junior) was a punching bag for Braves fans during his two years with the team. As a Brave, Upton played in just 267 games, hitting .198/.279/.314 with 21 homers and 32 stolen bases, collecting a cool $25.9 million and contributing -0.3 fWAR to the team.
So when the Braves included Upton in the Craig Kimbrel trade with the Padres, the night before Opening Day, Braves fans took some pleasure in trading one of the team’s best players, simply because Upton was going with him to San Diego.
But a funny thing happened after the trade. Upton started the year on the DL, and missed the first two months of the season. He’s been a part-time player this year, logging only 171 plate appearances in 66 games (which is still tied with the oft-injured Wil Myers for the fourth most among the team’s outfielders). However, when Upton has been on the field for the Padres, he’s done something that would come as a surprise to Braves fans – he’s been productive.
That’s right, Melvin Upton hasn’t been a horrible baseball player this season. In fact, he’s been quite serviceable – in those 66 games, he’s hit .237/.310/.400 with five homers and eight steals. His walk rate of 8.2% is lower than the rates he posted in his two years with the Braves, but his 27.5% strikeout rate is also lower than his strikeout rate with the Braves, which hovered around 30%. Upton is also hitting for more power (.173 ISO), getting luckier with balls in play (.308 BABIP), and also is hitting more line drives (20.8%, a career high) and fewer ground balls (41.5%).
In fact, if you want to dig a little deeper, Upton has arguably had the best season of anyone involved in the mammoth trade before the season. Carlos Quentin was immediately released by the Braves, and retired soon after. Jordan Paroubeck was flipped to the Dodgers for international bonus money. Austin Riley was taken with the 41st overall pick acquired by the Braves in the deal, and while he has 12 homers in 60 games, he’s still only 18 and expectations need to be tempered.
That leaves the four big names in the trade – Upton, Kimbrel, Matt Wisler, and Cameron Maybin. Kimbrel has still been good, but nowhere near as fantastic as he’s been in the past. Through 54 games this year, Kimbrel has posted a career-worst 2.77 ERA, a career-worst 34.3% strikeout rate, and has saved “only” 36 games for the Padres. The 22-year old Wisler has gotten destroyed in the majors this year, like many young Braves pitchers. In 14 starts and one relief appearances, Wisler has thrown 74 1/3 innings, pitched to a 5.81 ERA, struck out 48, and walked 31.
That brings us to Cameron Maybin, who has enjoyed a bounceback year for the Braves. He’s taken over as the every day center fielder for the Braves, playing in 124 games and hitting .268/.333/.382 with 10 homers and 21 steals. It’s certainly been a great year for Maybin, albeit one that has seen him receive three times the plate appearances that Upton has while delivering similar offensive production (.315 wOBA, 98 wRC+ compared to a .307 wOBA and 96 wRC+ for Upton) and substantially worse defense (-17 DRS, -6.9 UZR for Maybin, +1 DRS, 3.2 UZR for Upton in 700 fewer innings).
Let’s be honest – at the end of the day, this is a trade that the Braves will “win” when all is said and done years down the road. They moved plenty of salary in the form of Kimbrel and Upton (though they really haven’t used that extra payroll to improve the major league club since the deal), and acquired young, controllable assets. But just looking at this from a 2015 perspective, the Padres’ end of the deal doesn’t look so bad now that Upton is something less than a complete drain on the team’s overall production.
When Upton’s brother Justin eventually signs elsewhere as a free agent this winter, Melvin’s continued production could be huge for a Padres team counting on Myers and Matt Kemp to stay healthy in the outfield.
