On paper, the Mets-Phillies game tonight appears to be must-see TV. Two club aces going head-to-head for rival teams in a Friday night matchup. This assumes you just read the names of the pitchers on the paper and did not actually read the corresponding statistics and records. Indeed, tonight’s starters Matt Harvey and Cole Hamels have had completely contrasting starts to their year and that correlates with how their respective teams have performed as well.
The Mets have an 18-10 record and a comfortable 4 game lead in the National League East. No team in that division has shown much in the way of being competitive, although the Nationals will likely be in the hunt at some point. But for the mot part, the Mets have shocked the prognosticators with their early season success. They are a young team and have a bright future.
The Phillies could not differ more. Only the Brewers have a worst record in the majors and the fans in Philadelphia may have already reached the peak of apathy. The team is a bad mixture of old, washed-up players and young guys who are just not very good. Furthermore, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for the Phillies. The players with trade value have played terribly (Chase Utley and Ryan Howard) and the other main guy in trade talks, Hamels, has been far from impressive so far in 2015. The hope was that Hamels would start the season off strong and further boost his trade value. Instead he has posted a 1-3 record with a 4.14 ERA and a surprisingly large number of walks with 19.
In Hamels’ defense he has received .5 runs of support less per start than the next guy on the list. He has received a measly 1.67 runs per start and it’s hard to win games with that offensive output. However, the way he has pitched is what’s to blame, not the anorexic offense which everyone knew was going to struggle to score runs.
The trade value of Hamels, while it seems like it’s dwindling, is always going to be pretty high. The fact remains that Hamels has shown to be one of the best pitchers in the game when he’s got everything working for him and it will be argued that it’s easier to pitch well when you know the offense is there to help. Either way, Hamels has performed in the past well enough to invite this much attention. The 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP, from 2007-2012, averaged 14 wins a year and posted a 3.26 ERA during that time with a 1.127 WHIP. Even in the past two seasons where his win-loss record doesn’t suggest any remarkable success, Hamels pitched well and did the best he could with what the Phillies front office gave him in way of offensive “firepower.”
In fact last season Hamels, in his first six starts, was 1-2 with a 4.30 ERA and he finished the season with an excellent 2.46 ERA. So it is reasonable to expect for him to right the ship as the weather gets warmer. One might expect him to be even better if he was traded to a team with playoff aspirations. He’s clearly not going to get that in Philadelphia for the rest of his career.
However, teams like the Red Sox, Astros, Rangers, Padres, Dodgers, and Cardinals (due to the loss of Adam Wainwright), who could use some help in their rotation are going to be asked to pay a hefty ransom for Hamels’ services and it remains to be seen if they would be willing to do that. Reports are though, that opposing executives aren’t too concerned with Hamels’ early struggles. Likely the struggles are beneficial for these clubs because it could drive down the market value of the player. There is reasonable reason to believe the rumors surrounding his trade and the team around him, is affecting Hamels’ performance on the field and maybe a change of scenery would be the best thing for him.
First 41 Starts
| Record | ERA | SO | IP | |
| Hamels | 19-12 | 3.90 | 269 | 251 |
| Harvey | 17-10 | 2.39 | 295 | 271.1 |
Harvey on the other hand could not be at a better spot in his career. He’s fresh off Tommy John surgery and it’s like he never left. In 5 starts he is 5-0 with a stellar 2.41 ERA in 33.2 innings. Granted his run support is the complete opposite of Hamels; Harvey has received 6.2 runs per start on a team that is only 10th in the league in runs scored. So Harvey has been a little lucky, but “luck” honestly should never be used when talking about Harvey, he’s really good. His velocity came back just like it was before the surgery and he has only walked 4 batters so far.
Pitching control is another area where the Mets and Phillies are night and day. The Mets as a team have only allowed 52 walks (Phillies have league-high 116) and Bartolo Colon has surrendered one walk in 40.1 innings. This stat shows how important pitching is; the Mets offense is nothing special, but their stellar pitching (a team 2.90 ERA) has been good enough to put them in first place.
NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 25: Starting pitcher Matt Harvey #33 of the New York Mets throws a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees on April 25, 2015 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Nate Shron/Getty Images)
Unlike Hamels, Harvey is not going to be switching teams anytime soon. He’s making only $614,125 this season and won’t be arbitration eligible until next year and won’t be a free agent until 2019! Obviously a lot can happen until then, but the Mets have to be feeling good with where their team is at this point. Even if they remember that they are the Mets and miss the playoffs when this season is all said and done, they still have plenty of talent to contend in the next several years.
One thing is for sure: people know who Matt Harvey is now.
