Marco Estrada had been making a name for himself during the playoffs before the Blue Jays run ended. He tossed 19.1 innings over three starts, earning a 2-1 record. He has a 2.33 ERA and 3.08 FIP in those starts. His regular season career numbers aren’t quite that good, but he does provide a team with a sneaky good pitcher capable of handling both starting and relieving duties. That flexibility and his overall effectiveness combined with an admitted lack of track record makes for a compelling package that should come at a low cost
Marco Estrada technically got his start with the Nationals but he didn’t really get any playing time until after the Brewers plucked him off the scrap heap. Between 2011 and 2012, he worked out of the pen and in the rotation for Milwaukee. In 231 innings over 72 games–30 of which were starts–he earned a 3.82 ERA and 3.48 FIP.
What might be more impressive–for a pitcher that hovers around 89-90 mph with his fastball–was his 24.5 K%. For context, among qualified starters in that two year time frame only Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee, and Max Scherzer had better strikeout rates. If you look at K%-BB% Marco Estrada’s 18.4% would rank 5th among that group.
Estrada continued along making 21 starts for the Brewers in 2013. He was moderately successful that season: 23.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, .227 BAA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.87 ERA, 3.86 FIP.
Two things have helped Estrada to maximize his effectiveness. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters because he has above average command of his pitches. He’s able to spot his pitches very well which is doubly important for low velocity pitchers. The other key to his success is his magnificent change-up. It looks just like a fastball coming out of his hands but on average it’s 11 mph slower. This keeps batters timing off and allows Estrada to rack up those swings and misses.
There is a down side to Marco Estrada that does make him a risky proposition – he is prone to giving up home runs. In 2014 with the Brewers he actually led baseball in home runs allowed with 29. He was tagged for a 1.73 HR/9. I believe the reason for this is two-fold. First of all, he does have that lower velocity. Second, he’s on the short side at 6’0”. That makes it harder for him to have downward plane on his pitches. These to things combined mean when he misses his spots in the zone it’s a lot easier for hitters to square up and drive the ball.
That’s really the only downside though. He consistently show an ability to miss bats–above average strike out rate and a batting average against that is better than league average. He also has shown an ability to command his pitches well which can help mitigate his home run problem. When he does give up those home runs their usually of the solo variety because he keeps guys off the bases.
The only season he had in recent years that was bad was last year. Again, that’s primarily due the home runs. To begin the season he made 18 starts. In those 107 innings he allowed 27 home runs–2.27 HR/9–and was lit up for a 4.96 ERA and 5.73 FIP. However when he moved to relief it was a completely different story. In 43.2 IP over 21 appearances, he only allowed two home runs and kept his ERA at an excellent 2.89 to go along with an equally excellent 2.81 FIP.
The outrageous home run epidemic he suffered through in 2014 receded somewhat this year. He still allowed 24 but they were spread out more evenly across his season which is evident in his less terrifying looking 1.19 HR/9. His 3.13 ERA shows once again that despite the home runs he can be very effective. As stated above, I don’t believe it’s coincidence or entirely luck that the majority of his home runs are solo shots.
There are warts here for sure. But a team that looks deeper at Marco Estrada’s peripheral stats will see the potential here. And then those warts only serve to drive down the cost to sign him which in turn makes him all the more enticing. He can start, he can relieve, and he bounce between those roles. He makes for a decent 5th starter or an excellent relief ace/long reliever/spot starter. He will appeal to teams looking for an asset to trade mid-season ala the Cubs recent rebuild method and to teams looking for that last piece to complete their roster. Whichever team does sign him will likely get one of the better bargains of this offseason.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
