Yesterday, the Cardinals announced the unfortunate news that Lance Lynn would miss the entirety of the 2016 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. It’s a huge blow to what was the best team in the National League in 2015. Lance Lynn saved the Cardinals rotation after Adam Wainwright went down with a season ending injury of his own and they never would have made the Postseason without him. Now they have to figure out what to do with their rotation going forward.
First and foremost, they will have their long time ace return to full time action. Adam Wainwright missed nearly all of the 2015 season with an Achilles injury. He did make a return in October and during the playoffs pitching out of the bullpen. He will be ready for Spring Training and a full return to the rotation. Right now, we can pencil him in as the Opening Day starter.
Next up is Carlos Martinez, who enjoyed much success in his first full season at the major league level. He contributed 31 appearances with 29 of them coming out of the rotation. He ended the season with a 3.03 ERA and 3.21 FIP worth 3.4 fWAR. He threw 179.2, innings which means he should need an innings limit next year. At just 24-years old, all indications are that he can continue being an above average starter for the Cardinals. There might even be room for improvement, which is a scary thought for the rest of baseball.
For the third spot in the rotation we have another 24-year old: Michael Wacha. He was slightly less effective than Lynn and Martinez, but he was still quite good. In 30 starts, he accrued a 3.38 ERA and a 3.87 FIP which was worth 2.3 fWAR. He was actually slightly more effective in 19 starts in 2014. So at the very least, we know he’s a quality mid-rotation starter. He threw 181.1 innings and that’s probably around what the Cardinals should expect from him going forward.
The Cardinals had a choice to make with regards to Jaime Garcia. They held a team option worth $11 million. When he’s healthy, he’s a quality mid-rotation starter in his own right. The problem is that he can’t stay healthy. He threw 129.2 innings this year with a 2.43 ERA and 3.00 FIP. But the previous two seasons, he threw just 99 combined innings. Ultimately St. Louis decided to pick up his option and he will contribute to the rotation next year. There is a serious question about just how many innings and starts he’ll give them.
The final rotation spot is the one that’s really up for grabs. Right now, the Cardinals are awaiting John Lackey’s decision. They extended him the qualifying offer – a one year contract worth $15.8 million. If he wants to test free agency he can and will beat that figure. However at 37-years old, he may not want a three year deal and decide that staying with St. Louis is his best option. He will have to make that decision by Friday, November 13.
If Lackey doesn’t return, the Cardinals will likely have to dip into free agency or perhaps orchestrate a trade. They are not a team known for spending big in free agency so I don’t see them going after a David Price or Zack Greinke type. But perhaps a player like Scott Kazmir could make sense. Of course they could always bring back Lackey on a two or three year deal. Mat Latos or Alredo Simon could work as rebound candidates if the Cards think they can work more of their magic.
Even if John Lackey does decide to return to the Cardinals – or they sign a guy like Kazmir – they might want to sign a long reliever type that is capable of making spot starts, though they do have players like Tyler Lyons, Tim Cooney, and Marco Gonzales that fit that bill. Brandon Beachy and Brandon Morrow could make sense. They might have to sign a minor league deal because they have significant injury histories. But if either can return to health, they could be great out of the bullpen and have the history as starters that might them intriguing as buy-low guys.
If I had to guess, I’d say they end up bringing Lackey back either by him accepting his qualifying offer or the Cardinals handing him a two-year deal. On top of that, I think they’ll want more insurance than Cooney/Lyons/Gonzales provide. I think they’ll get long reliever capable of making spot starts. And that will probably be good enough. Adam Wainwright’s Achilles injury was a sort of a freak thing so I’m not too worried about him re-injuring himself. And after him, the only starter I’d be concerned about is Garcia. The rest can be counted on to make 30+ starts – at least as much as any starter can be counted on for such a feat.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
