The Milwaukee Brewers don’t need to trade Jonathan Lucroy. He won’t turn 30 until June, and if the Brewers exercise their club option on him for 2017, he’ll be owed just $9.5 million total over the next two seasons. Yes, Lucroy had a down year in 2015 after three fantastic years from 2012-2014, but even in only 103 games, his .313 wOBA ranked 11th among all 28 catchers with at least 300 plate appearances and his 93 wRC+ ranked 12th. Combine that offensive prowess with his defensive pluses, and he’s unquestionably one of the better catchers in baseball…even in a down year.
But while the Brewers don’t *need* to trade Lucroy, this winter could be the ideal time if they want to pull the trigger on dealing him. While Lucroy’s offensive numbers were still respectable in 2015 as he dealt with injuries, they were down from the last three years (though they did markedly pick up in the second half, when Lucroy hit .289/.347/.461 with 12 doubles and five homers over 180 plate appearances, compared to a .241/.307/.325 line with eight doubles and two homers in 191 first half plate appearances).
Looking past his performance in 2015, the main reason that trading Lucroy could be a boon for the Brewers this winter is the rest of the catching market. The two “safest” veteran free agents have already signed – AJ Pierzynski going back to the Braves, and Chris Iannetta joining his former Angels GM Jerry Dipoto with the Mariners. Hell, even the biggest wild card on the market, Matt Wieters, isn’t available after accepting Baltimore’s qualifying offer this offseason. Who’s left?
-Well, there’s Alex Avila, whose concussion history may not let him catch anymore.
-There’s Dioner Navarro, who will be 32 in February and has had two above average offensive seasons in his 11 (!!!!) season MLB career.
-There’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who the Marlins released after just nine games last year and couldn’t make much of an impact with the Diamondbacks after catching on with them.
-There’s Geovany Soto, who hasn’t been anything resembling a regular since 2012.
-And then, there are the career backup types like Carlos Corporan, Jeff Mathis, Michael McKenry, Jordan Pacheco, and Brayan Pena.
In other words, if your team needs a full-time catcher…you’re looking at Saltalamacchia or bust in the free agent market.
Plenty of teams *could* use an upgrade, but how many actually would be a fit for Lucroy? The Phillies got next to nothing from Cameron Rupp and Carlos Ruiz last season, but they’re not contending over the next two years. The Rays seem committed to a Rene Rivera/Curt Casali duo next year, and the Nationals are in a similar position with Wilson Ramos and Jose Lobaton. The Twins already took care of their issues behind the plate by acquiring John Ryan Murphy from the Yankees. The Marlins aren’t going to punt on JT Realmuto quite yet. The Padres, Mets, and Red Sox all have young catchers either in the majors or waiting in the wings (get Austin Hedges some damn playing time, please).
Two teams immediately jump to my mind as fits for Lucroy, though neither team has quite a strong farm system – the Angels and White Sox. Anaheim already lost Iannetta to the Mariners, and their incumbent is Carlos Perez, a 25-year old who hit .250/.299/.346 with four homers in his 86 games in the majors last year. Perez does have the rep of being a strong defensive catcher, especially after throwing out 25 of 66 attempted base stealers last season, but his framing and plate blocking skills came out as below average in 2015. Injecting a defensive presence like Lucroy behind the plate would help the Angels a ton – and having his bat in the lineup wouldn’t hurt either, considering how disappointing the Angels offense was overall last season.
As for the White Sox, they haven’t had a good catcher since the heyday of Pierzynski (which seems odd to say, considering he had an above average wRC+ just once in his eight years with the team). Tyler Flowers has been the primary backstop over the last two years, and split time in 2011, 2012, (both with Pierzynski) and 2013 (with Josh Phegley). The results have been underwhelming to the tune of a .223/.289/.376 line in 431 games with 46 homers, a league average 27% kill rate, above average framing, and poor plate blocking. For an organization that tried (and failed, I might add) to compete in 2015, adding a catcher the caliber of Lucroy while also upgrading the quality (on either offense or defense) of about half of the positions on the field could be what actually makes them better as opposed to just adding big name free agents.
Plenty of other teams could hop into the fray for Lucroy, but the Angels and White Sox make the most sense. Don’t rule out the Nationals, however – Wilson Ramos could end up costing more in arbitration than Lucroy’s contract will pay him next year, and he is coming off of a poor year. Washington also hasn’t shown hesitancy in making bold moves in an effort to contend, and the facts that they’ve assembled a solid cache of prospects *and* that their window appears to be close to shutting could nudge Mike Rizzo into making a move for Lucroy.
