The Atlanta Braves have a well-earned reputation of an organization that consistently churns out solid starting rotations. The names Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz all immediately come to mind, but while those were the biggest names on those dominant 1990s staffs, don’t forget about guys like Steve Avery, Denny Neagle, and Kevin Millwood. The reputation is still strong to this day, but that reputation doesn’t reflect reality in the year 2015.
This season, through 21 games, the Braves rotation has been a tire fire. Freshly-acquired Trevor Cahill has a 9.42 ERA on the season and pitched in relief on Wednesday, seemingly signalling the end of his time in the Atlanta starting five. 2014 All-Star Julio Teheran has a 4.67 ERA through five starts, has seen his homer rate more than double, and has watched his walk rate nearly double. Alex Wood’s strikeout rate has dropped, walk rate has risen, and he’s looked a lot more hittable in the early going. Former Cardinal Shelby Miller has been fine in his four starts, but that 2.05 ERA is bolstered by some excellent luck. In fact, the only Braves starter that has truly lived up to expectations is veteran Eric Stults, whose 4.03 ERA this year is in line with his career mark.
It’s a bit bizarre to think about just how poorly Atlanta’s crop of homegrown starters have turned out over the last few seasons. The Braves have had several young, promising pitchers in their rotation, and most have fallen apart pretty quickly. Just a few examples…
-Jair Jurrjens had a 3.10 ERA over 65 starts in 2008 and 2009. He made 20 starts in 2010, 23 starts in 2011 (almost all of which were in the first half, leading to him making the NL All-Star team), and ten in 2012 before the Braves cut bait on him. During the final three years of his tenure in Atlanta, Jurrjens’ ERA grew by more than a run to 4.18, and he made 12 fewer starts in one more season. He’d miss time with a strained hamstring, a torn meniscus, an oblique strain, constant knee inflammation, and a strained groin.
-Tommy Hanson was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball in 2009, and earned the call to the majors at the beginning of June. He was dazzling in 2009 and 2010, making 55 starts for the Braves and pitching to a 3.16 ERA. Over his next two years in Atlanta, he made 53 starts and pitched to a 4.11 ERA before the Braves traded him to the Angels for Jordan Walden. Hanson was awful for the Angels in 2013 before they let him go, and he hasn’t reached the majors since. During his final two years with the Braves, Hanson dealt with right shoulder impingement and rotator cuff tendinitis.
-Kris Medlen came up in 2009, right before Hanson, and shined in a relief role while also picking up four starts. In 2010, Medlen split the year between the rotation and the bullpen, thriving once again before blowing out his elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery. He missed nearly all of 2011, and worked his way back to a dominant year in 2012, again split between the rotation and the bullpen. He was a full-time starter in 2013, pitched to a 3.11 ERA in 31 starts, and blew his elbow out for the second time in Spring Training. Atlanta non-tendered him, and he’s now working his way back to the majors with the Royals.
-Mike Minor was the seventh-overall pick in the 2009 Draft by the Braves. He made his major league debut in 2010, and showed flashes of brilliance while struggling overall in eight starts. He split 2011 between AAA and the majors, and again showed flashes while struggling. He was fine in 2012, and had a breakout 2013 season, tossing 204 2/3 innings with a 3.21 ERA. In 2014, Minor made 25 starts and pitched to a 4.77 ERA, missing 35 games with a shoulder injury. He hasn’t pitched yet in 2015 because of the shoulder, and reports indicate he’s still experiencing discomfort.
-Brandon Beachy was an undrafted, unheralded prospect that blazed his way through the majors and had a 3.00 ERA over three starts in his major league debut season of 2010. In 25 starts in 2011, Beachy had a 3.68 ERA, missing a month with an oblique strain. In 2012, Beachy made just 13 starts and had a 2.00 ERA before blowing his elbow out. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, he threw just 30 innings in 2013 before going down with another elbow surgery. Before the 2014 season, he underwent a second Tommy John surgery and was non-tendered by the Braves. He’s rehabbing with the Dodgers.
Aside from those five, the Braves have mainly used veterans and other assorted lesser thought of pitchers in their rotation since 2008 (which was Jurrjens’ rookie year). Only five pitchers have thrown as many as 500 innings with the Braves since that season – Hudson, Jurrjens, Minor, Hanson, and Derek Lowe. Teheran and Medlen are the only other pitchers over 300. There are a handful of pitchers also over 200, but the only ones that could have been considered “young” are Beachy and Wood – the rest are guys like Kenshin Kawakami, Paul Maholm, Javier Vazquez, and Aaron Harang.
Now obviously, I’m not saying that some of Atlanta’s young pitching talent like Miller, Mike Foltynewicz, and Matt Wisler will end up like Jurrjens, Minor, and Hanson. But when you see guys like Teheran and Wood taking steps back after excellent seasons, you have to wonder what the hell is going on in Atlanta. Is this just a horrendous string of bad luck? Is the Braves medical team completely messing something up? Did Bobby Cox work some of these pitchers too soon, and is Fredi Gonzalez doing the same thing? Is there a breakdown somewhere in the minor league something in regards to workload?
It’s probably a combination of all of the above factors. Jurrjens was always a regression candidate, but I don’t think anyone expected him to fall as fast as he did because of a chronic knee issue. Hanson’s shoulder was always a concern, and the Braves should have taken care of him a little more. Atlanta has had plenty of issues with Tommy John surgery, but no one could have foresaw both Medlen and Beachy blowing out a second time. What does the future hold for Minor, Teheran, and Wood? Will they continue to be rotation stalwarts for the Braves, or will they simply end up as afterthoughts? Only time will tell, but I don’t think anyone would really be surprised if all three have already peaked.
