Last season, the Royals were the most unexpected team in the playoffs and used that momentum to win the Wild Card game and eventually find their way into the World Series. This year, that role has been taken on by the Astros, as they barely hung on to a Wild Card in a year they were expected to finish third in the West at best. Then, they shut out the much more expensive and experienced Yankees in the Wild Card game behind a brilliant start from Dallas Keuchel, a top candidate for the AL Cy Young.
Now, the underdog will take on the strongest team in the AL, even though both are less than three years removed from 90+ loss seasons.
How will the rookies step up to the spotlight?
The Astros wouldn’t be where they are today without their rookie stars, particularly Rookie of the Year candidates Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers. Even looking beyond the jitters that could affect any young player on the national stage, depending so much on young arms has placed Houston in a situation where their starters have far exceeded previous work loads. McCullers has already thrown 157.2 innings between MLB and AAA this year when he had never thrown more than 105 in a year before in his career. Collin McHugh, the starter in game one, is not a rookie, but threw more than 30 MLB innings for the first time in 2014 and has thrown more than 200 this season. Even the more veteran Mike Fiers had only thrown 94 total innings between 2013 and 2014, but threw 180.1 during the regular season this year.
As for Correa, the shortstop accounted for the third most WAR (3.3 fWAR) among Astros hitters despite playing just 99 games. On a team full of all or nothing hitters, Correa struck out just 18% of the time (second-lowest on the team among those with at least 300 PA) and batted .279, also second on the team to Jose Altuve among those with at least 150 PA. If they want continued offensive success, they will depend on Correa getting on base before some of the bigger power hitters.
BOSTON, MA – AUGUST 22: Wade Davis #17 of the Kansas City Royals checks the runner at first base against the Boston Red Sox in the eighth inning at Fenway Park on August 22, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
Will the bullpens come into play?
While the two things aren’t necessarily connected, these are both young and very aggressive teams. Both swung at 48% of pitches, ranking 7th and 9th in all of baseball. This is far away from the Yankees, who lead the league in patience (44.8% swing rate) and forced Dallas Keuchel (on short rest, mind you) out of the Wild Card game with 87 pitches in six innings. If the two teams continue this aggressive behavior, we will likely see pitchers stick around longer than normal unless knocked out by a poor performance.
This should favor the Astros as the Royals have incredible relievers on the back end, even without Greg Holland. Wade Davis is one of the best closers in baseball while Ryan Madson and Kelvin Herrera have also been dominant. The Astros, on the other hand, have a clear advantage in the starting rotation and if by being aggressive at the plate they can score early on the Royals pitchers, they will have to. Johnny Cueto, the game two starter, has particularly struggled of late and putting up a few runs in the first few innings would be huge as they can’t expect to score against that bullpen.
DETROIT, MI – SEPTEMBER 18: Salvador Perez #13 of the Kansas City Royals celebrates with teammate Eric Hosmer #35 after hitting a game tying two run home run in the ninth inning of the game against the Detroit Tigers on September 18, 2015 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Are the Royals really the best AL team?
The top team in wins and losses for most of the season after starting the year 7-0 and ending at 95-67, the Royals have still shown plenty of weaknesses at times. They had just one player with a WAR above four, Lorenzo Cain, and no real stand out starting pitchers compared to the Astros who had three.
Where the Royals really had an advantage over the rest of the AL was defensively, where they showed everyone how underrated that aspect of the game has been. For the second year in a row, Kansas City led baseball in defensive runs saved, although not by as large of a margin as in 2014. Looking at the defense at a different angle, the Royals had the second biggest positive difference between ERA and FIP as the defense saved the team 0.30 runs per nine innings. Only the Cardinals defense made a bigger difference on their pitchers expected ERA.
BOSTON, MA – AUGUST 21: Lorenzo Cain #6 of the Kansas City Royals cannot reach a triple hit by Rusney Castillo #38 of the Boston Red Sox in the fourth inning on August 21, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
Will the Royals defense even matter?
While that great defense was a large part of what pushed the Royals to the top of the league, it probably won’t be as effective against Houston. This particular group of Astros doesn’t put the ball in play very often, worst in the AL with a 22% strikeout rate and second best in the majors with a .187 ISO. Only the Blue Jays in all of baseball bested them in power, hitting two more home runs over the entire season. They also had a decent walk rate, coming in 9th in the majors. With only Altuve, Correa, George Springer, and Marwin Gonzalez hitting safely more than 27% of the time anyway, facing a great defense shouldn’t be so daunting for the Astros.
The Royals need just look back one game to see how this could work out, as the Astros beat the Yankees with two solo home runs and solid pitching. The defense need not enter into it at all.
HOUSTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 21: Evan Gattis #11 of the Houston Astros hits a home run in the second inning against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Minute Maid Park on September 21, 2015 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Which is better, power or average?
In the end, this series should be a great example of the old argument between power and average hitters. While both teams swing at pitches at a nearly identical rate, they have had very different outcomes. As mentioned, the Astros are the worst team in the AL when it comes to striking out. While it may seem the Royals should be around there as well, they were actually the best in all of baseball, striking out in just 15.9% of at bats. In a similar vein, as the Astros were the second best power team, the Royals were the second worst among playoff teams (ahead of the Cardinals) and 24th in baseball with just 139 total home runs.
These may be two of the most extremely opposite teams ever to play in a play-off round and the results should be very interesting. In the regular season, the Astros won four of six, but with higher stakes than two series during June and July (the Astros swept the early series in Houston and Kansas City won their series 2-1 at home), anything could happen. If the Royals pitchers can take advantage of the Astros’ aggressiveness by keeping the ball just out of the zone, they could completely shut down at least 2/3 of their order. On the other side of the ball, the Astros don’t have to worry as much about the Royals scoring with no one on, but will have to work a lot harder to keep them off the bases in the first place.
Of course, no matter who wins it won’t settle the debate, but it should be a very entertaining ride. More than any other series, this one features the hottest young talent and teams that haven’t been in legitimate contention often. In fact, each team has reached the World Series just once since Kansas City triumphed over the Cardinals in 1985.
