The Texas Rangers (88-74) and the Toronto Blue Jays (93-69) will face off in the AL Division Series, beginning this Thursday. It’s an intriguing matchup on paper, and these five questions immediately came to mind.
Do the Rangers really stand a chance?
On paper, this is a nightmarish match up for Texas. Not because the the AL West winning Rangers are bad, but because they’re facing a well-oiled machine in the Blue Jays. Toronto posted a 40-18 record since August 1st, since acquiring the big pieces that helped push the Blue Jays into an MLB elite team post-trade deadline, and they’ve shown no signs of slowing town, despite Taylor Swift and Sports Illustrated doing their best. Toronto was unanimously picked by ESPN to win the series. Texas, while not facing impossible odds, will be facing a difficult task.
OAKLAND, CA – SEPTEMBER 24: Prince Fielder #84 and Shin-Soo Choo #17 of the Texas Rangers celebrates after Fielder hit a two-run homer against the Oakland Athletics in the top of the eighth inning at O.co Coliseum on September 24, 2015 in Oakland, California. The Rangers won the game 8-1. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Can the Rangers out-slug the Blue Jays?
Texas finished third in the AL in runs scored, and their offense should provide valuable life support for the series. Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder had bounce back years in 2015, getting on base at an impressive clip while adding some life to the middle of the order. The Rangers scored big on snagging speedy outfielder Delino DeShields, who was consistent all year, in the Rule 5 draft. Mitch Moreland and Adrian Beltre are still reliable, dependable weapons. The real wild card is Josh Hamilton, who still hasn’t recaptured his past glory since returning to the team while battling injuries
The Blue Jays offense is a thing of beauty. They posted an insane +221 run differential more than 200 runs better than the Rangers at just +18. What makes the lineup so dangerous is the depth, with Toronto trotting out capable hitters from one through nine in the lineup. The Rangers will have to deal with Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin consecutively, a brutal assignment.
OAKLAND, CA – SEPTEMBER 24: Cole Hamels #35 of the Texas Rangers pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the bottom of the first inning at O.co Coliseum on September 24, 2015 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Who’s got the best starters?
Texas has announced Yovani Gallardo and Cole Hamels will start Game 1 and 2 for the club, meanwhile David Price and Marcus Stroman will take the hill for the Blue Jays.
Gallardo is coming off a fine season where he went 13-11, with a 3.42 ERA. He’s thrown 13.2 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays this season, but that’s a small sample size to be basing his success. Hamels is no stranger to the playoffs, and he’s as close to the Rangers have to an ace. Hamels went 7-1 in 12 starts with Texas, and posted a 3.66 ERA. Both pitchers are good, but neither should scare Toronto.
The Blue Jays counter with David Price and Marcus Stroman. Price went 9-1 in 11 starts with a 2.30 ERA, and is the ace of the squad. He’s the big game pitcher, and will pitch in game four should it be necessary. The Jays didn’t even expect Stroman to be back in time for the postseason, yet he’s an integral part of their run. It’s a small sample size, but the 24-year-old dominated in four starts since returning, winning all four and posted a 1.67 ERA.
The Stro Show: @MStrooo6 reveals he’ll pitch #ALDS Game 2 vs @Rangers on Friday in Toronto. pic.twitter.com/jv4MTUn9I5
— MLB (@MLB) October 6, 2015
I don’t think Toronto has a tremendous edge with the starters, but if Texas announces Colby Lewis or Nick Martinez is starting Game 3, and Toronto goes with Marco Estrada, then I’d be worried if I was Rangers fan.
ARLINGTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 29: Shawn Tolleson #37 of the Texas Rangers pitches against the Detroit Tigers in the top of the ninth inning at Globe Life Park in Arlington on September 29, 2015 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Can the bullpens hold up?
The Texas bullpen was one of their biggest weaknesses entering the final month of the season, but over the last 30 days, Rangers relievers have posted a league best 2.36 ERA. The Blue Jays meanwhile have struggled with a 4.97 ERA, which ranks 28th over that time period.
20-year-old Roberto Osuna has hit the rookie wall at the end of the season, blowing two saves, while giving up eight earned runs in his last 12 innings. He’d never pitched more than 43.1 innings at any level before this season, and he ended 2015 with 69.2. Rangers closer Shawn Tolleson finished 2015 on a down-note, but aside from the occasional bad outing, he put together an excellent campaign for the team.
Both bullpens, for the most part, are in good shape entering the series. The Blue Jays have more name value on their roster, but the Rangers bullpen is competent, and would like to build on their strong finish.
TORONTO, CANADA – SEPTEMBER 23: Russell Martin #55 of the Toronto Blue Jays reacts as he hits a three-run home run in the seventh inning during MLB game action against the New York Yankees on September 23, 2015 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Who’s the X-factor for each team?
Russell Martin has had one of the best seasons by a catcher in Blue Jays history, and he’ll be asked to do a lot for the club in the series. Defensively, he’s going to be asked to possibly catch Marco Estrada and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, which he wasn’t asked to do every game this season. Offensively, he’s the charge behind all the big bats.
The Rangers’ X-factor is Fielder. His power has declined since his peak, and Fielder also has a pretty poor playoff history to this date. In 39 games, he’s hit .197 with a .287 OBP. For the Rangers to win this series, they need him hitting like he has during the regular season. If he performs like he has in the playoffs, they’re toast.
