Maybe it was because they weren’t able to sneak up on anyone again this year or maybe it was because they weren’t that good to begin with, but either way the Baltimore Orioles were one of the more disappointing teams of the 2015 season. Manager Buck Showalter could not work his magic this year and the defending AL East champions may not even finish at .500. Is this just a down year or is this a sign that happy times are coming to a close at Camden Yards?
Preseason Prediction: Even with Wieters and Machado back, the O’s didn’t do much to improve their roster despite losing Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis and some of their depth. Factor in improved competition from Boston, Toronto and the Yankees and Baltimore seems likely to get pulled back into the pack in the AL East. They still very much have a shot to win the division, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they won 85 games and finished third. (Garrett Wilson, February 20th)
What Went Right: The team can still rake. Chris Davis hit 40+ homers again (currently at 43). Manny Machado also joined the 30-homer club and Adam Jones chipped in 27. The team (as of September 29) clobbered 205 homers, good for fourth in the American League. They finished 8th in the league in runs scored which isn’t fantastic, but that is a by-product of what they did not do very well, which we will look at next.
Machado stayed healthy, playing in over 150 games which is a great sign for the Orioles. The 22-year old posted an .845 OPS and trailed only Josh Donaldson in hits and runs among third basemen while also finishing in the top 5 of virtually every offensive category among players at his position. He will likely capture his second Gold Glove as well.
In the rotation, Wei-Yin Chen was solid in his 30 starts. He posted a 3.35 ERA in 185.1 innings (through September 29) and had an impressive 1.219 WHIP which reflects his 1.8 BB/9 innings. At 29 years old, he might not be a kid, but he should still be able to contribute a handful of decent years for the Orioles moving forward, if they re-sign him as a free agent at the end of this season.
The bullpen was very strong. Closer Zach Britton saved 34 games for the O’s and posted a 2.01 ERA in 61 appearances. Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, Brian Matusz, and Tommy Hunter all were solid as well. The Orioles’ bullpen was second in the league in ERA (3.11) and only had 13 blown saves as a group.
BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 01: Starting pitcher Chris Tillman #30 of the Baltimore Orioles wipes sweat from his brow in the dugout after being relieved in the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 1, 2015 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: While it’s easy to just put this season on the pitching, that would be too simplistic and unfair. While the offense had power and scored runs, there were large holes in their lineup that really ended up costing the Orioles games in 2015. The team finished 13th in the league with 1,289 strikeouts and they had four players who finished with over 100 strikeouts for the season (David has 204 all by himself). While many would be fine with strikeouts in exchange for 200+ homers in a season, what is missed in that strikeout number is how undisciplined the offense was. Just looking at walks, the team was 13th in the league and a corollary of that was their OBP as a team (.307) ranked 12th in the league. So sure the Orioles could hit the ball over the fence, but solo homers can only do so much throughout the course of a season (Earl Weaver must be rolling over in his grave) and especially when their starting pitching was as putrid as it was.
The Orioles starting pitched finished 14th in the league in ERA (4.60) and finished 14th in the league in innings pitched. They also finished 11th in strikeouts. Chen and Ubaldo Jimenez weren’t bad, but Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman (who started the year in the bullpen), and Bud Norris all struggled mightily. Norris, in 66.1 innings, surrendered 52 earned runs (7.06 ERA) and was released by the Orioles in August.
BALTIMORE, MD – MAY 12: Jimmy Paredes #38 of the Baltimore Orioles bats against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 12, 2015 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Toronto Blue Jays won, 10-2. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: Jimmy Paredes came to Baltimore from Kansas City in 2014 and he was a guy who had minimal playing time since his rookie year in 2011. Paredes, primarily a DH, interestingly, was traded by the Yankees to the Astros for Lance Berkman at the trade deadline in 2010.
Paredes got off to a red-hot start in 2015 and was hitting .314 through the month of May. He has tailed off since then, but still has knocked ten homers and knocked in 42 runs in 103 games, more than twice as many games as any season in his career. He has shown that with regular playing time he can contribute, obviously with his bat. He isn’t David Ortiz, but he’s a cheap option for a club that values offense and relies on it to compete.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – SEPTEMBER 18: J.J. Hardy #2 of the Baltimore Orioles can’t get to a ball in the eight inning against the Tampa Bay Rays September 18, 2015 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Cliff McBride/Getty Images) *** Local Caption ***J.J. Hardy
Most Disappointing Player: J.J. Hardy is one of the games best fielding shortstops in the game and will likely win his fourth straight Gold Glove Award. However, his offensive production since 2013, when he hit 25 homers and was an All-Star, has been sub-par at best. While he missed the first month of the season with an injury, Hardy has not been a big contributing member of the Orioles, outside of his defense.
From 2011-2013, Hardy averaged 26 homers and 75 RBI and 107 walks. Since then, however, he is averaging eight homers and a .630 OPS. It remains to be seen if the last two seasons were just aberrations or, the more likely reason, if Hardy is on the decline in general. At 32 years old, he could still have a couple decent years left, but it appears he may be finished. He’s owed $12.5 million next season and $14 million in ’17 with a vesting option for 2018. Time will tell how this relationship progresses.
KANSAS CITY, MO – AUGUST 25: Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles dives for a ball during the game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on August 25, 2015 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
The Future: The future for the Orioles hinges on contract negotiations and being savy with their limited funds. Chen will garner some interest from teams in free agency considering the demand for pitching and Darren O’Day will definitely be heavily sought after. Chris Davis will be a free agent and it’s not unreasonable to expect him to move on and get paid handsomely for his services from a larger market team.
Machado and Jonathan Schoop will be around for awhile, but more importantly than anything is how the Orioles address their starting rotation issues. As a small market team, it’s always a difficult task to find value, but obviously many teams find a way to do it (Pirates, Royals, etc). That’s where the trouble lies – because the Orioles aren’t known for having an innovative front office, finding value in different places could be difficult for them. The fans of the O’s are hoping with all they can that the team will be competitive once again next season, and not plunge into another decade of irrelevancy which they know all too well.
