The end of season post-mortem wasn’t supposed to be written until well into October. Of course, the final word on their 2015 season was also expected to celebrate a World Series championship for a team that appeared to be the best in baseball. But here we are on Sept. 27 and the Nationals are the ninth team to be officially eliminated from the NL playoff race. To say this team failed to follow through on expectations is a massive understatement, resulting in perhaps the biggest surprise of this season. General manager Mike Rizzo went all in, and it blew up in his face. There’s plenty to salvage from this wreckage, but many tough decisions lie ahead.
Preseason Prediction: The team finally lives up to its expectations, rolls through the regular seasons, and crushes all teams in its path on the way to the franchise’s first World Championship and DC’s first title since the Redskins beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXVI. One member of their talented rotation wins the Cy Young award, and either Bryce Harper or Anthony Rendon wins the NL MVP. None of this is far-fetched at all. (Joe Lucia, Feb. 27)
What Went Right: The experts and analysts got one thing right about the Nationals in 2015. Bryce Harper was ready to assert himself as one of the best players in baseball. As disappointing as the Nats were this season, think about where they might be without their star outfielder, who was far and away MLB’s best hitter. Harper will win the unofficial triple crown, leading the majors with a .339 batting average, .470 on-base percentage and .663 slugging mark. That slugging percentage is 75 points higher than the next closest player (Mike Trout). His 1.133 OPS is more than 100 points higher than the second-ranked hitter (Joey Votto). And his 41 home runs currently lead the NL.
In some seasons, the Nationals’ failure to make the playoffs would cost Harper a MVP award. And there are some out there who might still make that argument. But you really have to stretch to justify a reason for Harper not to win NL MVP this year. No one else is even close. Votto and Paul Goldschmidt didn’t play on winning teams either. Yoenis Cespedes will have played one-third of his games with the Mets. Factor in Harper’s age (he’ll turn 23 this October), and you have a historic season that puts him in the same company as the legendary hitters of this sport. You get the sense that he’s only just beginning.
WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 23: Manager Matt Williams #9 of the Washington Nationals argues with home plate umpire Mark Ripperger #90 after Jonathan Papelbon (not pictured) was thrown out of the game in the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Nationals Park on September 23, 2015 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Just about everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Nats in 2015. First and foremost are the injuries. Washington barely had its projected opening day outfield play together this season with Jayson Werth and Denard Span rarely able to stay healthy. Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman were frequently sidelined. Nagging maladies kept Stephen Strasburg from providing 25 starts in the rotation. Sure, other contenders had to deal with injuries — and some, such as the Cardinals and Mets, did so very well — but going into the season, it appeared that the Nationals’ depth would be able to cover any holes in the lineup. But there were just too many for the Nats to deal with. Couple that with poor performances from several players, and it was far too much to overcome.
Zimmerman had the worst season of his career, batting .249 with a .773 OPS. Rendon compiled a .737 OPS. Ian Desmond batted .232 with a .666 OPS and committed a NL-leading 27 errors. Jordan Zimmermann’s 3.68 ERA was the third-highest of his career, while Gio Gonzalez had the second-lowest strikeout rate of his eight seasons. Max Scherzer went from a NL Cy Young Award candidate during the first half of the season to a 4.41 ERA after the All-Star break.
Though numbers such as a 3.46 ERA and .672 opponents’ OPS say the Nationals’ bullpen was pretty good, Williams was never able to find a consistent option behind Drew Storen. The bridge between the starting pitcher and closer was a shaky one most nights with Blake Treinen and Casey Janssen failing to hold leads continually. While Matt Thornton and Felipe Rivero were reliable left-handers, it just wasn’t enough. Nor was acquiring Jonathan Papelbon at the trade deadline. That may have made the relief corps deeper, but booting Storen from the closer role crushed him mentally and he never recovered.
Williams didn’t help matters by stubbornly sticking to designated roles for his relievers, rather than using the best pitcher in high-leverage situations. That was among the many reasons the second-year skipper looked overmatched in the dugout and overwhelmed by the responsbility of managing a team expected to be the best in baseball. Yes, Williams had a lot of juggling to do because of injuries and had difficulty finding a consistent lineup to field every night. But his baffling game management (calling for his best hitters to bunt in run-scoring situations, for example) makes him an easy target. The fans and media have turned on him, pointing to him as the reason for the Nationals’ failure. It’s difficult to imagine him returning next year.
LOS ANGELES, CA – AUGUST 10: Yunel Escobar #5 of the Washington Nationals reacts as he leaves the field after his play for an out of A.J. Ellis #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers to end the second inning at Dodger Stadium on August 10, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: When the Nats picked up Yunel Escobar from the A’s for Tyler Clippard in January, it looked like a savvy depth signing by Rizzo. Escobar could play second base or shortstop, which would allow Rendon to move to third base and provide a stopgap for 2016 at shortstop between Desmond leaving via free agency and Trea Turner being ready to take over the position. But with Rendon’s injury, Escobar ended up becoming a key replacement at third base, a position he’d barely played (22 games) in his eight previous seasons.
The defense wasn’t great, costing the Nats -10 Defensive Runs Saved and nearly seven more runs than an average third baseman. But Escobar had one of the best years of his career at the plate, batting .321 with an .803 OPS and 25 doubles. More than likely, he’ll be Washington’s shortstop next season, unless the Nats decide Danny Espinosa’s defense makes him a better option. (Perhaps Turner or even Wilmer Difo could even be an option, depending on how they perform during the spring.) That could make him a decent trade chip.
Most Disappointing Player: Take your pick. Pull a name out of Williams’ cap. Anyone who wasn’t Harper or perhaps Scherzer had a disappointing year that contributed to the Nationals performing far, far below expectations. Werth is certainly a viable pick, compiling his worst batting average (.221) and OPS (.715) since becoming a full-time player in 2008. He was also terrible in left field, charged with -9 DRS. Washington has him for two more years at a cost of $42 million.
However, Zimmermann was expected to be one of the Nationals’ best pitchers, if not the staff ace. Going into his final year before free agency, it was certainly in the 29-year-old’s best interests to have a good season and demonstrate he should be considered one of the top starting pitchers available on the market this winter. Zimmermann’s velocity was down slightly, and he threw his curveball much more, nearly ditching his changeup altogether. If that pitch wasn’t working for him, it makes sense not to use it. But having four effective pitches, rather than three may have been the difference between him being outstanding and just very good. The Nats obviously needed more from him, along with many others.
DENVER, CO – AUGUST 19: Starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg #37 of the Washington Nationals delivers to home plate during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 19, 2015 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
The Future: The Nationals are going to look like a very different team next season. Zimmermann, Span, Desmond and Doug Fister will all be gone, while Storen will almost certainly be traded. Though Strasburg has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, the Nats might decide to move on if the intention is not to re-sign him. But even if A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito emerge as viable major league options to go along with Joe Ross and perhaps Tanner Roark, trading Strasburg might be unlikely with two holes to fill in next year’s rotation.
Roster-wise, Rizzo’s biggest offseason assignment will be to rebuild the Nationals’ bullpen, however. And Strasburg might present the best trade chip that allows him to do so. Treinen and Aaron Barrett need to rebound, and the Nats might factor that into the decision-making process. But a viable setup man will surely be needed to support Papelbon. Free agency is not an ideal way to build a bullpen, so Rizzo will probably need to make trades to strengthen this unit.
But Rizzo’s most important decision will be what to do about Williams. We detailed his flaws as a manager above, and it won’t be easy to wash out the stench of failing to steer the Nationals toward a World Series champions the past two seasons. With veteran skippers like Ron Gardenhire, Bud Black and Ron Washington available, Rizzo might decide it’s time to stop letting Williams learn on the job while his roster ages and the best seasons of core players end up wasted.
There might some sentiment to replace Rizzo as well. After all, he put this disappointing team together. But not only did he build a powerful roster, he’s also set it up for the future with young talent to take over for departing players, allowing financial resources to fill in whatever other holes remain. If he tries to make a stand on keeping Williams, that might present a problem if ownership feels a managerial change is necessary. Yet it seems doubtful that Rizzo would choose that particular battle to go down with. He’s built a team that should contend for years to come, even with the emergence of the Mets in the NL East and the Cubs in the league.
