The best word to describe the 2015 Tampa Bay Rays might actually be “mediocre”. The team topped out at ten games above 500 on June 20th, and went an AL-worst 35-51 since that date. But despite those struggles, the Rays never fell more than six games below .500, and weren’t truly buried in the AL East until the calendar flipped to September.
Preseason Prediction: Just like I said yesterday in the Red Sox preview, I wouldn’t be shocked out of anything from the Rays. Could they win 90? Yep. Could they lose 90? Yep. I think this is roughly a .500 team on paper, and while you could pencil them in for a few more wins in the past because of the presence of Joe Maddon, you can’t really do that anymore with Kevin Cash now at the helm of the team. A lot of the Rays’ success or failure is dependent on the rest of the AL East, but this *is* a team that can challenge for a division title if some of the balls bounce their way. (Joe Lucia, February 17th)
What Went Right: Kevin Kiermaier and Logan Forsythe made the most of their starting roles, starring on both offense and defense and ranking first and second on the team in fWAR as of this writing. Evan Longoria launched 20 homers and stayed healthy, though his overall triple slash was just .268/.328/.431. Lottery ticket one-year signign Asdrubal Cabrera played quite well, hitting .265/.314/.422 with 13 homers as the team’s every day shortstop.
The much-maligned Mikie Mahtook made his major league debut and hit .300/.364/.578 with six homers and four steals over 35 games. Steven Souza Jr. hit 16 homers and stole 12 bases, but struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances. Despite dealing with a plethora of injuries, the Rays also got great production from their rotation – Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Erasmo Ramirez, and Nate Karns all threw over 140 innings, and Karns’ 3.67 ERA was the highest of the quartet.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – SEPTEMBER 17: Matt Moore #55 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches during the first inning of a game against the Baltimore Orioles on September 17, 2015 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Alex Cobb didn’t throw a pitch this season. Matt Moore struggled in ten starts following his 2014 Tommy John surgery. Drew Smyly made just 11 starts while dealing with a balky shoulder. Ernesto Frieri and Grant Balfour were unmitigated disasters in the bullpen. Desmond Jennings was plagued by injuries, and managed to log just 108 plate appearances over 28 games.
James Loney played in only 99 games at first base, and looked more like the guy that the Dodgers and Red Sox didn’t want than the guy the Rays got in 2013 and 2014. Rene Rivera couldn’t hit at all behind the plate. Nick Franklin was a disaster once again.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – AUGUST 28: Erasmo Ramirez #30 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning on August 28, 2015 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Cliff McBride/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: For as much as I want to give the nod to Chris Archer, we all knew he was awesome coming into the season. But Erasmo Ramirez? He was impressed for the Mariners in 2012, struggled in 2013, and was terrible in 2014. When the Rays picked him up, no one really expected much. Of course, Ramirez was fantastic in 26 starts and seven relief appearances for Tampa Bay this season, pitching to a 3.65 ERA while striking out 123 and walking just 39 in 158 innings.
And the only reason his numbers don’t look better is because of two absolutely brutal outings to start the season. Take those out of the equation, and his ERA plummets down to 2.89. And to think….he’s not arbitration eligible until after 2016, and all the Rays gave up to get him was Mike Montgomery, who was thoroughly mediocre in three months in the majors this season outside of back to back shutouts in June.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – MAY 23: Second baseman Nick Franklin #2 of the Tampa Bay Rays chases down a single by Billy Butler #16 of the Oakland Athletics during the fourth inning of a game on May 23, 2015 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: I really try not to pick on guys who got hurt on veterans with nothing left in the tank here. And while Nick Franklin did start the year on the DL, he *did* play 96 games between AAA and the majors, so the season wasn’t a total lost cause. While Franklin hit a ton in 57 AAA games (.266/.353/.500, 11 homers), he was terrible with the Rays – in 39 major league games and 95 plate appearances, Franklin went yard just twice and hit .159/.221/.295 with 30 strikeouts.
Franklin is still young – he doesn’t turn 25 until next March – but he’s been thoroughly unimpressive over the last two seasons in the majors. Can the Rays count on him to fill a hole in the infield next season? I really don’t think so, and that’s not a good thing considering he was one of the three pieces the team acquired in the David Price trade last summer.
CHICAGO, IL – AUGUST 04: on August 4, 2015 at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Rays won 11-3. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) *** Local Caption ***
The Future: Tampa Bay is in a weird position next year. Their second-highest paid player is Loney, who doesn’t have much value anymore. Their only free agents are Cabrera, John Jaso, and Grady Sizemore, none of whom are really building blocks. The club has plenty of young outfield talent and young starting pitching that form a core to contend long-term, but they’re going to need to upgrade at first base, find a new shortstop to replace Cabrera, and do *something* behind the plate.
But the story is the same as always for the Rays – they can’t compete with the high spenders in the AL East, and need to have the talent already in the organization come through and deliver. When the Rays gamble on players like Balfour, Frieri, and Loney and they struggle, the team is up a river without a paddle. It sucks, but so much needs to go right for them to contend.
