The kings of the NL Central are dead. The St. Louis Cardinals failed to advance to the NLCS for the first time since 2010, and their playoff elimination came at the hands of their arch-rivals – the perennially downtrodden Chicago Cubs. But the Cardinals still won 100 games on the season, their most since 2005, and ended up achieving much more than they should have, given the team’s neverending parade of injuries and the fact that they played in a meat grinder of an NL Central.
Preseason Prediction: The NL Central will be the league’s most competitive division with two very good teams at the top, and three others that could compete for a wild-card spot. But the Cardinals still have the best talent throughout their lineup and pitching staff, and will finish on top. Mozeliak will probably have to make an impact deal to overtake the Nats or Dodgers in the postseason, but if St. Louis gets to the World Series, there’s no reason to think this team can’t win yet one more championship. And everyone outside of the Gateway City and Cardinals nation will pull their hair, screaming to the skies about devil magic. (Ian Casselberry, March 13th)
What Went Right: Jason Heyward came as delivered, hitting .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers and 23 steals while playing his usual fantastic defense in right field. Matt Carpenter went yard 28 times and hit .272/.365/.505 as his missing power stroke reappeared. Randal Grichuk homered 17 times in just 350 plate appearances. Kolten Wong hit 11 homers and stole 15 bags to go along with a league average triple slash. Rookie Stephen Piscotty shined, smashing seven homers in 63 games while hitting .305/.359.494. Another rookie, Tommy Pham, hit .268/347/.477 in 52 games.
John Lackey had a 2.77 ERA in 33 starts while making roughly the league minimum. Carlos Martinez had a 3.01 ERA and 184 strikeouts in 179 2/3 innings. Lance Lynn made 31 starts and pitched to a 3.03 ERA. Jaime Garcia made an acceptable (for him, anyway) 20 starts, and his 2.43 ERA was more than what the Cardinals were expecting. Michael Wacha had a rotation-worst 3.38 ERA in 181 1/3 innings. Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist locked down the end of the game, combining for a 2.13 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 143 1/3 innings.
DENVER, CO – JUNE 08: Leftfielder Matt Holliday #7 of the St. Louis Cardinals is escorted off the field by manager Mike Matheny #26 of the St. Louis Cardinals and the trainers after suffering an injury in the second inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on June 8, 2015 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Jhonny Peralta still homered 17 times, but his overall numbers decreased and his advanced defensive metrics also took a step back. Yadier Molina hit just .270/.310/.350, his worst offensive year since 2006, and a thumb injury rendered him a non-factor in the playoffs. Mark Reynolds played like Mark Reynolds, homering 13 times and striking out 121 times while getting more playing time than expected because of Matt Adams’ injuries at first base. Adams played in just 60 games, missing most of the summer before returning to earn limited playing time in September. Neither Jon Jay or Peter Bourjos could hit a lick (.210/.306/.257 and .200/.290/.333), and injuries and ineffectiveness limited the pair to just 470 plate appearances. Matt Holliday missed half the year and homered just four times in 77 games.
Adam Wainwright was limited to four starts because of a torn Achilles, but *did* manage to incredibly make his way back to the team by the end of the year and pitch out of the bullpen in the playoffs. Jordan Walden threw just 10 1/3 innings over the course of the season. Martinez was shut down before the playoffs because of a shoulder injury. Midseason acquisitions Jonathan Broxton and Steve Cishek both had sub-3.00 ERAs, but their overall peripherals left much to be desired.
PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 26: Tommy Pham #60 of the St Louis Cardinals dives back to first on a pick-off attempt by the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of a MLB game at Chase Field on August 26, 2015 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Cardinals defeated the Diamondbacks 3-1. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: Tommy Pham was never a prospect with the Cardinals. Before the season, Fangraphs said that he “possesses enough of speed and power to almost resemble a major leaguer”. At best, Pham was seventh on the Cardinals’ outfield depth chart coming into the year, behind (in no particular order) Heyward, Grichuk, Piscotty, Holliday, Jay, and Bourjos. Of course, injuries struck the final three names on that list, and Pham was forced into regular duty in the majors. All he did was hit a more than respectable .268/.347/.477 with five homers in 52 games. His .352 wOBA and 125 wRC+ were actually better than the marks posted by Heyward and Holliday over the course of the entire season. Pham will be 28 going into the 2016 season, so there probably won’t be an expectation of long-term success – but given the uncertain futures in St. Louis of Heyward and Bourjos, and the injury struggles of Holliday and Jay, Pham could end up being a factor once again next year.
CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 13: First baseman Matt Adams #32 of the St. Louis Cardinals runs in a force-out after fielding a ground ball off the bat of Roberto Perez of the Cleveland Indians during the second inning at Progressive Field on May 13, 2015 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: After a middling debut in 2012, Matt Adams burst onto the scene for the Cardinals in 2013, hitting 17 homers in 108 games and starting at first base for St. Louis throughout the playoffs. His performance dropped off a bit in 2014, as Adams hit just 15 homers in 563 plate appearances with a .288/.321/.457 line. But those struggles were ignored when Adams homered three times in the Postseason, including a dramatic NLDS clincher against Clayton Kershaw. This year, the wheels fell off. Adams played in just 60 games while dealing with a quad injury. In those 60 games, he hit only five homers and slashed .240/.280/.377. Adams is now a 27-year old first baseman with a .197/.230/.317 line against left-handers and has struck out four times for every walk over his career. Considering he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, Adams could be done as an every day player in St. Louis just two years removed from being a playoff hero.
ST LOUIS, MO – OCTOBER 09: Stephen Piscotty #55 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates scoring a run in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs during game one of the National League Division Series at Busch Stadium on October 9, 2015 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
The Future: The Cardinals aren’t going away. Their only key free agents are Heyward and Lackey, while Reynolds and bullpen pieces Matt Belisle, Randy Choate, and Carlos Villanueva will all also test the market. St. Louis also has a club option on Garcia that they’ll likely pick up. After that? All of the key players will be back, though players like Bourjos, Cishek, Brandon Moss, and maybe even Adams could be non-tendered. But with the Cubs surging and the Pirates continuing to be strong, the Cardinals can’t rest on their laurels and simply expect another 90-win season and playoff berth to fall in their laps.
